New World Order

We are in the final season of the fourth iteration of the conference system in college hockey. Next year, things are going to look mighty different.

Fourth, you ask? What were the other three? Well, here they are, roughly.

1961 - 1981: The ECAC and the WCHA rule the roost, though the latter is generally stronger. Every national championship during this time period was won by a team from one of these conferences, through to 1983. The CCHA begins as a relatively minor conference midway through this period.

1981 - 1985: Still largely a period of dominance between the ECAC and the WCHA, but the CCHA's addition of Michigan and Michigan State shifts the balance a bit away from the WCHA.

1985 - 2000: The Hockey East split leads to a shift of power between the new conference, the WCHA, and the CCHA, with the ECAC in slow decline, especially after the early 1990s.

2000 - 2013: The era of the "Big Three," as the ECAC moves out of a position of power to become the lone mid-major, while the MAAC/AHA comes to being as the lone minor conference.

2013 - ???: The Big Ten tsunami rearranges the college hockey landscape as never before.

What could we be looking at in this fifth iteration of conference paradigm in college hockey?

Well, now that every team has lost a game this season, let's look at the current KRACH ratings to see where the new conference structure would stand if it were theoretically in place today - not a perfect comparison, since conference schedules will shift, but this is what it looks like.

Hockey East - 1, 2, 6, 7, 14, 19, 26, 34, 43, 44, 45, 52
NCHC - 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 18, 20, 39
ECAC - 4, 5, 8, 13, 16, 17, 21, 23, 31, 32, 33, 46
Big Ten - 12, 27, 37, 42, 49, 54
WCHA - 24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 38, 50
Atlantic Hockey - 22, 40, 41, 47, 48, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 59
Independents - 58

Look at the NCHC - that's a holy cow stat right there. Seven of its eight teams are currently among the 20 best in the nation, and the eighth (Minnesota-Duluth) won a national championship two years ago. Think that might be a power conference?

The Big Ten is having a shockingly bad season in it's year before birth (to wit - independent Penn State is ranked ahead of 1-7-2 Wisconsin, and Michigan ain't that far ahead of them), but this season is likely the exception and not the rule, considering that four of the six teams in the conference are regulars in the national tournament under the current structure.

Also, no one can deny Hockey East's excellent standing, especially with Notre Dame about to join the fold. Three of its usual "Big Four" are off to a great start (Maine... not so much), although the biggest problem Hockey East faces is its gap between haves and have nots. Providence's decent start has them somewhere in the middle (26th), but besides the Friars there's a big gap between UMass-Lowell (19th) and Merrimack (34th). Still, in recent seasons we've seen the Warriors competitive and the River Hawks not so competitive. They'll be a strong conference.

Atlantic Hockey, with all but two of its teams outside the top 2/3 of the nation, will continue their current role of providing their tournament winner an automatic bid and nothing more. They are still a cost-containment league and until that changes, they are where they are.

That leaves the fate of the original two up for ponderance... the ECAC and the WCHA.

First, the ECAC. The only changes our league needs to worry about is how the shifting paradigms affect recruiting. The last shift certainly affected things for the worse, but with five teams offering a full complement of scholarships and the league as a whole attractive for the educational side, there's only so far the ECAC will slide. It's probably already reached the bottom, really.

But the new WCHA could be in an almost worse situation than the ECAC, and quickly. A mashup of the leftovers between the CCHA and current WCHA after the Big Ten and NCHC tore away basically all of their top programs, it's hard to peg an absolute best program from this new group of nine. By KRACH, right now, it's Alaska followed by Ferris State. You'd almost have to call the Bulldogs early favorites.

The currently comprised ECAC has won only five national championships, among only three of its members, and none since 1989 (Harvard). The new WCHA will have eight, among four members, but none since 1994 (Lake Superior State). That's not overly dissimilar.

There's one other way to look at which conference has the most power teams - NCAA bids. The conferences have averaged the following total bids per season in the last 10 years (since the tournament was expanded).

WCHA - 4.4 mean, 4/5 median, 5 mode (High 6 - 2008; Low 3 - 2007 and 2009)
CCHA - 3.9 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2004 and 2012, Low 3 - 2003)
Hockey East - 3.6 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2007; Low 2 - 2008)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)

Now apply the total bids per season to the new conferences.

NCHC - 4.2 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 7 - 2011; Low 3 - 2003 and 2005)
Hockey East - 4.1 mean (High 6 - 2007; Low 3 - 2008 and 2010)
Big Ten - 3.1 mean, 3 median, 3/4 mode (High 5 - 2004; Low 1 - 2011)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)
WCHA - 0.9 mean, 1 median, 0/1 mode (High 3 - 2010; Low 0 - 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011)

That's astounding to see. In the new WCHA, there were four different years in the last ten that none of the teams made the tournament. In fact, between 2004 and 2009 (six consecutive years), there wasn't a single team that will play in the WCHA next year that earned an at-large bid - Bemidji State, on three occasions in that span, won the CHA's automatic bid.

What does that mean? Well, for starters, it means the WCHA is dropping off a long ways prestige-wise. But a cursory look at the numbers tells us that, at least at first, hockey's new world order is still going to consist of the "Big Three," but two of those will be brand new conferences. The ECAC will still be a mid-major, in all likelihood.

The WCHA, however, looks like it's going to have to fight - and hard - to be mid-major level. It essentially ended up as the Island of Misfit Toys after realignment, and although its autobid now represents a big chance for teams that frequently don't get to compete for either the WCHA or CCHA autobid most years in the past, the new league may be hard-pressed to pick up an at-large bid even with the regularity of the ECAC, which almost always gets one and not unfrequently snags a second.

The NCHC, once it gets assembled, will almost certainly never get 7 bids as it did in 2011 (that would be almost the entire league, and someone has to finish in last), but the mean totals could average out about right. That would likely mean, more often than not, the WCHA will probably have to settle for its autobid, but at least they'll probably grab an extra bid every once in a while, which pegs them above Atlantic Hockey. But it looks like a quick drop from the top for college hockey's oldest conference, almost certainly quicker than the ECAC's fall from grace. Their motto is "just got tougher," put in place after Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha joined the fold. They can keep it next year, but it'll have a different meaning.

ECAC: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The final piece of the puzzle in the upcoming conference scramble appears to be falling into place with reports last week of Hockey East and UConn inching closer together. Reports are that the Huskies are likely to join Hockey East in 2014-15, one season after what we referred to last offseason as "the tsunami" strikes college hockey's shores, irreparably changing the landscape as we know it.

With Hockey East now apparently destined for the 12 teams most everyone expected they'd finish with, there's only one question remaining - the long-term fate of Alabama-Huntsville. Given a reprieve by the school in December when the school reversed its much-maligned decision to scuttle the program, the Chargers will enter their third season without a conference this October and will still require a place to call home in order to secure their long-term existence.

With UConn set to depart Atlantic Hockey, that leaves the ECAC as the only conference to be completely untouched by "the tsunami." 12 teams when the process started, same 12 teams when it concludes.

Some, especially the powers that be in Albany, would call that a pretty good outcome. Stability is a good thing, as the schools which scrambled to find a home as the CHA and CCHA each disintegrated will tell you.

But how stable is the ECAC, really, and given the current state of the college hockey world, how much benefit is there for teams in the stable ECAC? We've long said that the league no longer qualifies as a "major conference" (at least since the very late 1990s) and that is even more likely to be true once the landscape changes in favor of the new big three: Hockey East, the NCHC, and the Big Ten. With an additional new "mid-major" likely to develop from the new WCHA and basically all of the big power schools concentrated in the Big Three, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the ECAC's decline to accelerate.

What could change things? There are two potential events on the horizon that could very well help tip the apple cart - neither are sure to happen, but neither would be a shock to the system, either.

1) The Ivy League. As we've said before, the Ivy six represent a veritable Sword of Damocles hanging over the integrity of the conference, and the sword has hung for decades, especially the last three following the Hockey East split. The Ivy League competes as its own entity in... pretty much every sport known to man. Men's and women's hockey is a very notable exception.

What would the Ivies gain from a split? They would stand to gain quite a lot, as Harvard's Brendan Roche (WHRB play-by-play announcer and all-around good guy) pointed out in a post last year while discussing the possibility of the ECAC losing RPI or Quinnipiac to Hockey East. First and foremost could well be scheduling: the Ivy League is limited to 29 regular-season games a year, and with 22 of those games earmarked for ECAC contests, that leaves them with only 7 non-conference games to play around with - just five for Harvard, which plays two of its NC games in the Beanpot every year. A six-team league could feature 4 games a season with league teams (all better draws than the non-Ivies currently are), and open two more non-conference opportunities.

Most of Roche's other points are very well taken. It makes sense for them from a marketing standpoint. With the Big Ten coming into being next year, it would give them the ability to showcase an all-sports brand, something that could come in handy when competing with the Big Ten, the NCHC, and Hockey East for talent. They'd also gain their own autobid to the NCAA tournament, though this is a bit of a wash with 9 of the last 11 ECAC autobids going to Ivy teams (Clarkson in 2007 and Union in 2012 the exceptions).

There's nothing the six non-Ivies can do about this, not anymore. None of them would fit into the west-centric NCHC (not that the league would want them if they tried) or WCHA, Hockey East is closed, and the only way out is to a lower league in Atlantic Hockey. The only reasonable option if an Ivy exit happens would be to reconstitute with programs from Atlantic Hockey that are seeking to move up in the world. We're talking about RIT, Niagara, Robert Morris, Holy Cross, and the like.

Of course, the non-Ivies could proactively split, but it's the same scenario. Compare the Ivies to the teams mentioned. With no disrespect intended to those teams (which are honestly trying to boost their competition level), but it's a step down for the ECAC non-Ivies as much as it's a step up for those teams. The only silver lining in all of this seems to be the autobid, but this would in all eventuality be a conference with only marginally better chances of attracting at-large bids than Atlantic Hockey currently does. The ECAC, at the very least, typically draws at least one at-large bid every year, giving some incentive for the non-Ivies to hold onto the marriage as long as the Ivies are still OK with it.

2) Notre Dame and the Big Ten. This is something that has been discussed, literally, for almost a century, since the first overtures between the parties were made in 1926. While the first possibility revolves entirely around hockey, this one revolves almost entirely upon football, with ripples that could now be felt in the hockey world, given the recent changes to the landscape.

Notre Dame's independence in football is storied - it gives their historic program the opportunity to set their entire schedule, and allows them to negotiate their own national television contract (with NBC) with an exclusivity that helps keep their brand front and center. But Notre Dame football isn't what it was for decade after decade of the 20th century. They haven't won a national championship since 1988 and haven't played for one since 1991. No Heisman Trophy winners since 1987. In the 14 seasons of the BCS, they've played in a BCS bowl only three times, losing all three. They haven't finished the season in the Top 25 of the national rankings since 2006 and only four times since 2000.

What's more, Big Ten football is beginning to eclipse Notre Dame in drawing power and revenues, especially with its Big Ten network. Big Ten schools are now pulling in more TV revenue individually than Notre Dame and their exclusive contract, and as the Irish continue to struggle to be nationally relevant on the gridiron, that inequity may only increase as the years progress.

What does this have to do with hockey, you ask? Well, Notre Dame has long seemed a perfect fit for the Big Ten, and if the economics of it all push the Irish to move football (and everything else) to the Big Ten, it'll take hockey right along with it.

That would create a dilemma for Hockey East. Now back to 11 teams and missing a star attraction, what course of action do BU and BC take? Both reportedly spurned NCHC bids previously, thought in large part to be because of Notre Dame's potential addition to Hockey East. Does that suddenly become an option for those teams? Either way, you're then looking at a 9 or 11 team Hockey East, with openings once again.

These scenarios illustrate the tricky spot the ECAC finds itself in, both as an integral unit and as two different halves. For the non-Ivy League teams especially, there could be a glass ceiling forming just as Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, and Union were proving that the Division II and III schools still had room to succeed at the highest levels.

The NCAA Field, By Conference

We're probably going to go into relatively early hibernation mode here at WaP... which usually exists from April until late May as a bit of a "season recovery" period, but there are still a few things left to say.

First, a quick analysis of the NCAA Tournament, as it pertains to the shifting sands of league alignment. How much of each league got to the dance this year?

The tournament breaks down like this:
5/11 CCHA (Michigan, Miami, Ferris State, Western Michigan, Michigan State) - 45%
4/10 Hockey East (Boston College, Boston University, Maine, UMass-Lowell) - 40%
4/12 WCHA (North Dakota, Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver) - 33%
2/12 ECAC (Union, Cornell) - 17%
1/12 AHA (Air Force) - 8%

Or... maybe it looks like this instead:
5/9 NCHC (North Dakota, Miami, Western Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver) - 56%
3/6 Big Ten (Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State) - 50%
4/11 Hockey East (Boston College, Boston University, Maine, UMass-Lowell) -  36%
2/12 ECAC (Union, Cornell) - 17%
1/9  WCHA (Ferris State) - 11%
1/12 AHA (Air Force) - 8%

Are we seeing the bigger picture yet? Obviously, the field probably changes once realignment actually happens, but it's fairly clear that the haves and the have nots, already well established, are about to become even moreso.

Today's Podcast: Joe Paisley

I admit, we're playing with fire this week.

Last year, we tried on two different occasions to get Colorado Springs Gazette writer Joe Paisley on our podcast, and both times failed due to problems on our side.

Here's hoping the third try's the charm. We'll talk to Joe about the high-flying Tigers, now ranked #3 in this beautiful country of ours, and see just what it is that makes them a dangerous team. We'll get his thoughts on the advent of the NCHC, given that the Tigers will be a charter member of the league in 2013, and we'll talk about CC-RPI, of course.

We go live at 6 p.m. Eastern today. To listen live (or on demand after the show), click Listen to Without a Peer in the upper right hand corner of the page.

Tsunami Watch: The Flood Recedes

This is our final edition of Tsunami Watch. Why? Because the radical changes in the college hockey world caused by the advent of varsity hockey at Penn State are over.

But, you say, the most exciting part of all could be just around the corner for RPI! Perhaps. But it will be a secondary reaction if it happens.

Here is where we currently stand for 2013-14.

* There will essentially be one new conference: the Big Ten. Thus, at the end of the day, we're back to six conferences, where we were when the CHA was still around.

* The CCHA membership will disperse into four of those six conferences - Notre Dame to Hockey East, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State to the Big Ten, Miami and Western Michigan to the NCHC, and the balance to the WCHA.

* The WCHA, while it will continue to exist, will look radically different, with three less teams than they currently stand and, really, no programs that would be considered power programs. We could be talking about a WCHA that moves to the level of the ECAC.

* The only thing left to shake out will be autobids, which may not be back to six until 2015-16 under the rules. NCAA regulations say six teams of any league must have been playing together for two full seasons before they can have the autobid conferred upon them. That would seem to leave out the Big Ten off the bat since the rule applies to specific sports, but it could also leave the NCHC and the WCHA high and dry.

The NCHC might have the excuse that six of their teams have been playing together in the WCHA. The new-look WCHA, however, has only 4 teams that have played together in the previous incarnation of the league, and only 5 that played together in the CCHA.

That leaves us with four scenarios.

1) The WCHA, as the previously existing league, gets an autobid, while the NCHC has to wait two years.

2) The NCHC, as the league with six previously existing league members, gets an autobid, while the WCHA has to do without for a couple of seasons.

3) Both leagues get an autobid.

4) Neither league gets an autobid.

And, of course, the Big Ten could somehow manage to get a waiver for a supposedly unwaiverable rule.

Anyway, here's what the college hockey landscape looks like after the tsunami. The only potential secondary changes are a 12th team for Hockey East and, if that team comes from the ECAC, a move by an Atlantic Hockey team into the ECAC. Any further discussions by the discontented programs of Atlantic Hockey at a new conference would be on its own track.

Big Ten

Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

NCHC

Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota, St. Cloud State and Western Michigan.

WCHA

Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Ferris State, Lake Superior State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State and Northern Michigan.

Hockey East

Boston College, Boston University, Maine, Merrimack, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Providence, UMass, UMass-Lowell and Vermont.

ECAC & Atlantic Hockey

Unchanged

Independents

Alabama-Huntsville

Recently discussed potential new programs

Buffalo and MSU-Moorhead

Tsunami Watch: Eastern Effects

The tidal wave that has completely obliterated western college hockey as we know it looks to be making its way east.

While eastern hockey is unlikely to suffer any radical changes in the way the WCHA and CCHA have been completely torn to shreds - with the possible exception of Atlantic Hockey, as we've discussed - changes do seem to be on the horizon, and they could well directly affect the Engineers.

On Sunday, the NCHC (which apparently wishes to be known as "The National") announced that it would launch its first season in 2013 as an eight team conference.

Let's see... North Dakota, Denver, Colorado College, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, Western Michigan, and St. Cloud State. Yeah, looks like they're already at eight.

Notre Dame? Hmm... awk...ward.

"We conducted a deliberate and exhaustive process that included consideration of adding more institutions." said NCHC ringleader UND athletic director Brian Faison. "In the end, we determined it is in the best interest of the Conference to proceed with our eight outstanding programs."

So, basically, they told Notre Dame to take a hike. Or, more likely, talks with Notre Dame broke down over some issue (probably television revenue) and the NCHC decided to make it look like they never wanted Notre Dame in the first place.

The Irish have already categorically ruled out independence, and there's no chance they're interested in Bowling Green's Zombie CCHA project (which we should find out more about this week given the Falcons' October 7th deadline for joining the WCHA). That basically leaves Hockey East for Notre Dame. The Irish are reportedly making their decision known tomorrow.

It's been reported in multiple places that if Hockey East brings in Notre Dame, they will want a complimentary 12th program in the fold as well, and we've talked long and hard about the possibilities of RPI being that team.

Here are the candidates, in ascending order of likelihood, that have been mentioned.

Cornell: I don't know where this came from, but in the last week rumors have flittered around that Cornell might be in the running for #12. Most likely, the Big Red were named by someone because for the past 10 years or so they've been the most consistently solid program in the east that isn't in Hockey East. OK, that's true. But even once that's on the table, there's zero reason to expect that Cornell would be the team. They're not just in the ECAC, they're in the Ivy League, and they aren't going to break from that association on an institutional level. If, for instance, Colgate had Cornell's present profile, they'd probably be the favorites right now, but as it is, Cornell's going nowhere.

Harvard: This one isn't very recent, but it's more of a "rumor that just will never die" type thing. This one's 100% based on geography and the fact that the Crimson are the only Boston area school and Beanpot participant not in Hockey East. It's also not happening, for the exact same reason as above.

Holy Cross: The problems that plagued the Crusaders when they applied for ECAC membership in 2004 have not diminished. They still play in a tiny rink that, while on campus, wasn't enough for the ECAC and won't even be close for Hockey East. Their women's team still plays in Division III. About the only things they have going for them is their location in Worcester and that one game back in 2006 where they beat Minnesota in the national tournament, and that's it. Maybe their position as a Catholic school to go along with the four others already in HEA once Notre Dame joins (BC, Merrimack, and Providence), but that's pretty thin.

UConn: This one won't go away because every other New England state school that sponsors hockey plays in Hockey East, and UConn is also a big name school with a big-time athletic program. A hockey program costs a lot of money to operate as compared to most other sports (including basketball), and UConn doesn't spend much on their program. That would have to change. They'd have to start offering scholarships in order to have a prayer in Hockey East (and it would probably be demanded). Then they'd have to offer more scholarships in a women's sport in order to balance Title IX concerns. They'd also need a modern ice rink with increased capacity, and those don't just come around that often - ask Penn State. The amount of money UConn would have to lay out in order to join Hockey East is probably on par with that of a brand new program, and given UConn's intense focus on basketball, football, and soccer, there's just not much of a reason to expect that kind of outlay to be forthcoming.

Quinnipiac: Outside of RPI, Quinnipiac does appear to have the most attractive potential offering for Hockey East. It's a program free from distinct connections to its current situation, unlike the Ivies. It's a program that has continually improved since joining Division I. They have a fairly new arena. It's in New England. They have an up-and-coming women's program. The one thing that the Bobcats don't have, which may ultimately be the killer, is the history. There's not much of it to speak of in Hamden, and there aren't any traditional links between QU and Hockey East programs - not even really any casual links either other than a game or two here and there. Now, Notre Dame doesn't exactly have the hockey history either, but they've got the name and they've gone a lot farther with their upward trending program.

RPI: We've already mentioned everything the Engineers offer Hockey East. By itself, it's not enough. RPI would never have been #11, at least, not right now. But overall, RPI presents the most complete package for Hockey East. A resurgent program. A just-renovated arena with plenty of capacity. History, with a pair of national titles (only BU, BC, and Maine can claim those in HEA right now) and historical links with most of the league's members. The ability to leave other teams in the ECAC behind. Geography isn't perfect, but it's not too far away from most of the league. Throw in the large alumni base in New England and it's basically the best match out there. That doesn't mean that Hockey East is dying to include RPI, but when it comes to meeting their goal of a 12-team league, RPI makes the most sense.

Any other possibilities out there? Well, there's the rest of the non-Ivies in the ECAC. Clarkson or St. Lawrence? Both were offered places in Hockey East in the mid-80s, but neither are attractive candidates now - they're isolated in the North Country, so they'd almost certainly be a combo set and there's only one spot available. Combine that with both programs' recent downturn and there you go.

Union? A program moving up in the world to be sure, but it's a lot easier to compete without scholarships in the ECAC than it would be in Hockey East, they have no real history to speak of before about three years ago, and their rink would not be something HEA's looking for.

Colgate? The rink's a problem here too, it's farther out from New England than RPI is, and their history is closer to Quinnipiac's than it is to RPI or the North Country.

A new program? The University of Rhode Island and Syracuse are two perpetual candidates for a new setup, but URI probably wouldn't be able to put something together in time for 2013 even if they started now, and Syracuse isn't a likely candidate in the near future anyway because of Title IX concerns.

Now, RPI hasn't shown any outward indication that they are interested in leaving the ECAC. We here at WaP are a little bit conflicted about the idea - which you know if you've read our thorough examination of the pros and cons. But the buzz continues to grow. Given the NCHC's press release, we are projecting that Notre Dame will join Hockey East, and that, at some point, RPI will be invited to Hockey East and will accept that invitation. If not RPI, which could have some qualms about leaving 50 years of history in the ECAC behind, Quinnipiac probably wouldn't think twice.

That will leave the ECAC with an 11-team set up, and that would result in a new team sliding into the position vacated by RPI or Quinnipiac. Those contenders? Well, they're pretty easy to identify.

RIT: The natural selection, in our view. RIT is a Liberty League member, just like the North Country and Union (and RPI, for that matter). The academic profile fits well. Geographically they're farther west than any team in the league. You'd have to expect that the Liberty League schools, Colgate, and probably Cornell would be interested in bringing RIT in. The Tigers would almost certainly have to agree to bring women's hockey along for the ride (which, right now, plays in Division III). They've been hoping for an opportunity to move to the ECAC anyway, which probably explains their lack of interest in the Zombie CCHA.

Holy Cross: While the Crusaders won't fit into Hockey East, there could be room for them in the ECAC as long as they bring women's hockey along for the ride. The geography works, especially with Dartmouth, Harvard, and Brown all rather close by. The academics fit. The rink's still a concern here, but not nearly as much as it would be in Hockey East. There was some sentiment within the ECAC for Holy Cross back in 2004, and they could well be interest from the New England contingent of the league this time around. If Holy Cross wants to get out of the scholarship-limited Atlantic Hockey, this is their only reasonable option, so expect them to at least inquire.

Zombie CCHA: Would any of the teams trying to build the Zombie CCHA out of Atlantic Hockey be interested? Perhaps, but probably only if Bowling Green decides against that route and goes to the WCHA. If that happens, the ECAC position becomes like gold for some of these programs, although Robert Morris would almost certainly be completely behind the eight-ball compared to the other three given their distant location.

----

Women's hockey

It's interesting to note that with all of the massive changes in men's hockey, there have been a whopping two moves in women's hockey: Penn State will join the CHA in 2013, and Lindenwood became an independent program (for this year) with an application to the CHA. That's it.

The Big Ten has only four women's programs: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. Thus, those first three will stay within the WCHA on the women's side. Thus, there's no NCHC equivalent on the women's side, either (since Denver, CC, Miami, Nebraska-Omaha, and Western Michigan don't have women's hockey). So the women's WCHA is intact. Notre Dame doesn't have women's hockey, so their move has no impact as well.

The first tsunami related move could well be with Hockey East's #12. We'll have to see if RPI or Quinnipiac's women's team moves along with the men's team. There's certainly no requirement, since Hockey East's women's conference isn't exactly the same as the men's conference, and, as we mentioned above, RIT and Holy Cross don't have D-I women's programs yet anyway. RPI or Quinnipiac could easily stay in the ECAC on the women's side. We'll have to wait and see.

Tsunami Watch: Double Dipping

Just when you thought the conference carousel might be slowing down, something happens and it kicks right back into full gear once more.

Without much notice, it was announced yesterday that the NCHC would offer membership to Western Michigan and St. Cloud State. The former wasn't much of a surprise, as the Broncos had an offer on the table already, but the latter was... surprising to say the least. Almost as surprising, the Huskies quickly accepted, going against statements the school had made a couple of months ago.

Why the turn around? Well, for one, everyone's still waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do. In the meantime, the NCHC had only six teams: Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Nebraska-Omaha. Those are some high powered programs, and one of them has to come in last. Thus, thanks to the NCAA's rule that no team with a sub-.500 record can earn an at-large bid to the national tournament, the league would probably restricted to three or, at a maximum, four bids a year. Thus, the need to expand, and in a hurry.

So where does that leave us? Well, let's break it down.

Western Michigan: At the end of the day, this one's not too surprising, especially once St. Cloud was given an offer as well. WMU, through their actions over the last year, have proven that they are going to give 110% to their hockey program, and their athletic director has a stated goal for the program of a national championship. The huge raise they gave Jeff Blashill before the Red Wings came calling and the hiring of NHL coach Andy Murray is plenty to indicate an up and coming program, and the NCHC, in the long run, is probably the best place for the program given those goals.

St. Cloud State: This one's a little more surprising and there's already been a lot of debate in St. Cloud as to whether this was the right move to make. First off, when the NCHC was first announced, SCSU was adamant that they wanted nothing to do with the league and that they planned to take a leading role in the new WCHA. Secondly, when the "new" WCHA started to congeal, most observes had the Huskies pegged as one of the programs that could potentially dominate the conference on a regular basis, leading to more frequent NCAA appearances and, in turn, better shots at the Frozen Four and the national title.

Now, SCSU will have to fight with the big dogs of the NCHC - not that they haven't tangled with most of the teams in the league before, but there were also some minnows to fall back on in the WCHA. They won't have that in the NCHC. They also suddenly look like one of the villains just months after promising to be a hero for the WCHA. This move will help the school with their visibility, but they may find it a tougher row to hoe in the long run.

It's also worth noting that with this move, St. Cloud State turns its back on its MnSCU brethren in Bemidji and Mankato, something that definitely won't sit well with those programs. The loss of St. Cloud State takes an already weakening conference and makes it decidedly more weak.

Notre Dame: Once again, the Fighting Irish dither while the rest of the hockey world moves in anticipation of what they may or may not do. The options are still mostly the same as we've gone over many times before - NCHC, Hockey East, or independence - but in the much larger picture (not something hockey fans are used to examining), there may be a fourth option opening.

If you've been paying attention to the NCAA as a whole lately, you've seen the carousel going on at the highest levels as well, with teams changing conferences left and right. The Big East especially seems to be in serious danger of either fracturing outright or what we should probably call WCHA-ization in that they won't be much of a major conference anymore by the time the wheel stops spinning. The problem here is that while Notre Dame is famously independent in football, they're a member of the Big East in everything else. If the Big East implodes, Notre Dame will need a new home, and the rumor that will never die always revolves around the Big Ten. So that route may yet be open.

By the way, there's even talk of these BCS superconferences breaking from the NCAA altogether - and that would make some serious waves in college hockey as well since you're talking the Big Ten plus Boston College and Notre Dame among those. Topic for another day, perhaps, but... that would make this tsunami look like a ripple in a kiddie pool.

Bowling Green: The only other CCHA program without a dance partner, the Falcons appear to be out of options other than the still-pending WCHA invitation. If the NCHC had any interest in BGSU, they probably would have already sent them an invite, and since league members are already talking about how eight teams is fine and a ninth would have to bring a lot to the table (code for Notre Dame), BGSU might as well just take the WCHA invite while they have it.

Alabama-Huntsville: This new development actually opens the door a little bit for the Chargers as it pertains to the WCHA. Adding BGSU would leave the WCHA in the same place they were before this new development: nine teams. UAH could potentially round that back off to ten... if they can find a way to be palatable to a league that's already going to have to deal with having a pair of teams from Alaska in it, as we've already mentioned.

NCHC: Sitting pretty now that they've got a couple more teams to boost that at-large potential. The numbers and teams involved definitely make the conference better able to compete with the Big Ten head to head, which was the goal all along, though purists will point to its makeup - 6 WCHA teams and 2 CCHA teams - and call it a WCHA rehash, more polite than asking UAA, MTU, Mankato, and Bemidji to leave.

Big Ten: Of course, it's worth mentioning that the Big Ten, like the NCHC before yesterday's announcement, has only six members right now, and thus has the same issue with top programs potentially being forced out of the NCAAs due to their record. Unlike the NCHC, however, the Big Ten doesn't have any real prospects for expansion on the horizon (with the possible exception of the Notre Dame scenario above). The league has the stability that comes with direct affiliation with a major non-hockey conference, but it also has the limitation that it can't just throw invites to teams the way the NCHC just did. If the Big Ten expands, it's going to be with new varsity programs at Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska-Lincoln, Northwestern, or Purdue. That's it.

By the way, do you know who the sub-.500 at-large rule now benefits the most? WCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC teams.

RPI: Speaking of ECAC teams... we're still keeping an eye on the Notre Dame situation as it could pertain to new opportunities for RPI as we discussed earlier this summer. There are two things this NCHC expansion does to the metric we laid out for a potential RPI-Hockey East merger. First, it makes larger conferences more acceptable again. Second, it may increase the likelihood of Notre Dame choosing Hockey East, though they're certainly still more than welcome in the NCHC. As it is, there's little doubt that RPI is keeping a hawk an eagle eye on Notre Dame and weighing their own options. As always, stay tuned.

Tsunami Watch: Settling Point?

While we dry out a bit here in Irene-ravaged Troy (which was almost wholly to blame for this not running yesterday), here's the latest on the conference carousel that may soon be grinding to a halt.

Last week, the rumored WCHA-CCHA merger that had been discussed came to fruition as the WCHA offered membership to the remaining members of the CCHA with the exception of Notre Dame, which is still on the fence between the NCHC and Hockey East (and, apparently, becoming an independent).

Alaska, Lake Superior State, and Ferris State quickly accepted. Thus, the WCHA currently looks like this in 2013:

Alaska

Alaska-Anchorage

Bemidji State

Ferris State

Lake Superior State

Michigan Tech

Minnesota State

Northern Michigan

St. Cloud State

There's one thing that all of these schools have in common: Division II. That may be one of the things that is causing hesitation for the other two WCHA invitees, Bowling Green and Western Michigan, both of whom play at the highest level of Division I.

That leaves the following remaining question marks.

Notre Dame: Once again, it was something other than Notre Dame which moved first. We all thought the Irish would be the first to make a move... they're now almost certain to be last. Well... maybe next to last.

The options are still pretty much laid bare on the table. They're one of three remaining CCHA teams, so they can't reasonably stay there - not that that's ever been something that was realistic to begin with. They've got a standing offer from the NCHC, and Hockey East wouldn't say no if they wanted to join there.

If Notre Dame preferred to align themselves with the Big Ten, there's another option that the Irish could be considering - independence. Now, this wouldn't leave the Irish as independents in the style of Alabama-Huntsville, which will be in its second season of fully cobbling together a schedule this year, but rather, would be a situation where the Irish had long-term scheduling arrangements with other leagues, almost certainly with the Big Ten and probably with the NCHC as well. Such an arrangement would allow Notre Dame to keep playing the schools they're already used to playing without having to tether themselves to the Big Ten (which they've famously refused to do for decades) or a conference largely consisted of less prestigious institutions in the NCHC. They wouldn't be able to vie for an automatic bid and they'd have to find a way to keep playing into March (when the conferences are in tournament mode), but with the scheduling arrangements, a good Irish team with a solid record would probably be in contention for an NCAA bid without much problem.

Bowling Green: The Falcons are in an interesting position. They have the WCHA invite in their back pocket, but as a Division I school, they could arguably have the clout to join the NCHC, which would probably like to grow larger than just six schools - not to mention that BGSU's MAC cohorts, Miami, are already there. They're almost certainly going to wait to see what Notre Dame does before making a decision.

Western Michigan: The Broncos are, even more than BGSU, waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do, in part because their proximity to South Bend could potentially allow them to latch on with the Irish as a travel partner in either the NCHC or Hockey East. It remains to be seen if the latter would be interested at all in WMU, though the former has apparently already extended an offer. Now they also have an offer from the WCHA. Options abound. It's amazing what one outstanding rebound season combined with a new commitment from administration will do for a program.

Atlantic Hockey: The WCHA-CCHA merger kills any chance that the four potential departures - Canisius, Mercyhurst, Niagara, and Robert Morris - had of being able to leave, since they had interest in playing in a revamped CCHA that will no longer exist. Those schools - and RIT as well - still have interest in improving their station in college hockey, however. What options do they have? Honestly, they don't have many places to turn. They could seek to join the ECAC, but even with the WCHA filling back up again, there's not much of a reason for the ECAC to expand (further diluting the pool for the automatic bid). For the time being, they're probably stuck where they are.

Alabama-Huntsville: The WCHA-CCHA merger is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Chargers... unless they can somehow petition the WCHA to become its 10th, 11th, or 12th member. The problem is, we're already talking about a league that is going to have to figure a way to include a pair of schools as isolated as Alaska and Alaska-Anchorage, bringing on another isolated team - and another D-II school - might be a dicey proposition.