Moving Parts

Yesterday, some big news hit the college hockey world - Notre Dame is moving out of Hockey East after the 2016-17 season concludes and joining the Big Ten as an associate member for hockey.

For those of you who have your ear to the ground, the move isn't terribly shocking. There have been murmurs that the Irish were unhappy in Hockey East for a little over a year, and obviously the Big Ten's struggles across their first three seasons have been well documented. This is a move that seems to make sense for both parties involved.

During the 2011 schism in the college hockey world caused by the formation of the Big Ten, Notre Dame's final landing spot was much debated. At the time, the Big Ten wasn't an option for them because the conference was not open to adding anyone who wasn't a member in every sport. That changed in 2013 when the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland to its ranks, two schools that sponsored lacrosse. With only five schools playing the sport, they added long-time independent Johns Hopkins (a D-III school in every other sport) for lacrosse only as an affiliate member to make six.

The Big Ten has lusted after Notre Dame's storied football program for decades, but that's always been a non-starter. So it's no surprise that the Big Ten, three years into a hockey experiment that has seen the conference embarrassed for basically all of the last two seasons with just one NCAA bid both years, was willing to admit the Fighting Irish this time around.

On Notre Dame's side, there's the understandable travel issue. While they had no problems financially taking a trip to New England every other weekend, and other teams didn't mind having to trek to Indiana once a year, the Irish had a problem with being the only team that had to go on long road trips all the time - a competitive balance issue. The travel within the mostly-Midwest Big 10 shouldn't be too much of an issue.

But that does now leave Hockey East with 11 teams, and moves the Big Ten to seven. The dominoes are starting to fall once more - and an odd number of teams is usually difficult to deal with on the long-term, due to issues with scheduling and playoff seeding. So what happens next?

Arizona State: The Sun Devils completed their first Division I season this year as an independent and they will do it again next year, this time with some additional home games against D-I teams. After that, they've said they want to be in a conference, and the Big Ten has long been touted as an understandable landing point. The one sticking point was considered to be the open question of whether the Big Ten would be OK with having affiliation in hockey. That question has certainly been resolved.

ASU may be in the hinterlands when it comes to hockey, but on the larger scale, they're a big deal - a power school in a power conference. But unless (until?) their Pac-12 brethren start adopting hockey, they need somewhere to reside. The only two conferences that ever made sense on a power and location basis were the Big Ten and the NCHC - the WCHA as it exists now is certainly too small to interest Arizona State.

With Notre Dame's decision and the news that ASU's discussions with the NCHC haven't been plentiful lately, it does seem like the Sun Devils becoming a second affiliate is a lot closer to reality. But it's not certain by any stretch of the imagination. ASU likely needs to start making some progress on their still nebulous plans for an on-campus rink. Their current homes are a tiny rink in Tempe that is the smallest in Division I and the Gila River Arena in Glendale (where the Coyotes play) that is the largest, impossible to fill.

But... who else could it be? Well, Miami has had some notable concerns about their travel situation in the NCHC. They've been strong enough in hockey for the last decade that the Big Ten might be willing to consider them as an affiliate (recall that Johns Hopkins is a lacrosse powerhouse, and Notre Dame is Notre Dame). That quality might open the door to North Dakota (who has traditional rivalries with Wisconsin and Minnesota) or Denver (certainly a storied enough program) as well, who would arguably have a better claim. Both of those schools, however, were among the driving forces behind the NCHC's very creation, and the NCHC certainly isn't having any problems.

Or, the Big Ten could stay with seven. It would be odd, but so is what they've already got going.

That leaves... Hockey East. With 11 teams, they're certainly going to want to get themselves back to 12. Five years ago, we pontificated on who the 12th team would be if Notre Dame was the 11th (basically at the bottom of that link). The answer ended up being UConn - but only after a serious change in their status quo fomented by their hockey loving governor.

Now, the question can be asked again, with UConn off the table. The top three answers are more or less the same.

Quinnipiac: Last time out, we thought Hockey East would arguably be more interested in RPI than in Quinnipiac despite the Bobcats having the newer facilities and the New England location. But in the last five years, there's no question that the Q has established themselves as a powerful program, and the opening in Hockey East probably couldn't have come at a better time if you're on the "Quinnipiac to Hockey East" bandwagon.

We still have to wait and see how the 2016 NCAA tournament plays out, but as the #1 overall seed, Quinnipiac have certainly made themselves the favorites to win the national championship. They played in the national championship game in 2013. The women's team is certainly on the rise, having just won the ECAC championship for the first time. Looking at things from Hockey East's perspective, there's no way at all that, among currently existing programs, they'd have anyone but the Bobcats at the top of their list.

The bigger question is this: does Quinnipiac really want to leave the ECAC? Five years ago, Hockey East was an obvious step up from the ECAC. Today it's still a step up, but it's not nearly as big - the gap has been closed slightly. And as things stand, it's hard to argue that Quinnipiac isn't one of the clear cut top programs in the league - which wouldn't necessarily be the case in Hockey East. Is it better to be a big fish in a smaller pond or a medium-sized fish in a bigger pond? That's the question that Quinnipiac will likely be asking itself.

Hockey East does have some benefits that the ECAC can't offer - national exposure is still far higher in Hockey East. But the ECAC also offers Quinnipiac guaranteed games with Yale every year, something they seem to cherish. The Yale-Quinnipiac "rivalry" is still very one-sided even despite (perhaps even because of) the 2013 national championship game. It's basically RPI-Union from the late-1990s, with Yale playing the role of RPI. Will Yale ever really care about Q though, at least enough to play them regularly in different conferences? It's hard to get an Ivy League team to care about a non-Ivy. That's just history working against the non-Ivy, and history trumps geography big time.

Holy Cross: The Crusaders are still kinda there in the discussion if only because they're right smack in the middle of the league's footprint. But nothing has changed in Worcester since 2011. They're still kinda middling in Atlantic Hockey. They're still playing in the same small rink on campus attached to their basketball court (which will be renovated soon, but not made bigger or more impressive). Their women's team is still in Division III. If anything, things may have dipped a bit for Holy Cross. Paul Pearl, an alum who was head coach of the team for almost 20 years, left in 2014 to become an assistant at Harvard. And they haven't been back to the NCAA tournament since that well-known upset of Minnesota in 2006.

The hangup in 2004 when Holy Cross applied to the ECAC was that they weren't interested in paying equal attention to their women's team. There doesn't seem to be anything that's changed there, which makes CHC a tough sell to Hockey East.

RPI: Much has changed for the Engineers in the last five years. Back then, we thought RPI might have made the most sense for Hockey East, and they probably still did if UConn's sudden epiphany had not happened. Much of what we wrote back then remains true.

But from RPI's perspective, the allure of staying in the ECAC has certainly changed. While five years ago we pondered that an RPI move to Hockey East could strengthen the program simply by playing in a higher-end conference, today the Engineers are playing in a conference that has produced two of the last three (and are favorites to make it three of the last four) national champions. The move would be slightly more lateral than it had been back then, and that makes the difference in the academic profile a bit more difficult to deal with.

And this time around, they're definitely second banana to Quinnipiac as things stand, at least from a Hockey East perspective.

More on this in the near future. As with five years ago, the topic of RPI to Hockey East deserves a more detailed look at this blog.

So... what if there's an open spot in the ECAC? What happens then?

Holy Cross: Basically, the same as above. There's no way Holy Cross goes anywhere unless they agree to move women's hockey to Division I, and if they're happy with where it is right now, they're probably happy being in Atlantic Hockey.

RIT: If only Rochester were closer to... Albany, or Worcester, or something, RIT is the totally obvious choice. Academics, history, everything's there. They'd be an 8th program without athletic scholarships.

The problem - and this is a problem - is that the ECAC has a really good thing going with its travel partner system, and RIT doesn't fit into it well. It might work if RPI ends up bailing for Hockey East, but almost certainly wouldn't if it's Quinnipiac. Without RPI, Union is orphaned, and one could see a Colgate-Union pairing and a Cornell-RIT pairing sort of working (or Colgate-RIT and Cornell-Union). If Quinnipiac bounces, Princeton could go back with Yale, but who does RIT pair with that doesn't turn that road trip (and likely, others) into a nightmare? It's a logistical problem for a league that depends on some easier travel schedules to stay a manageable bus league.

If RIT comes large with an ECAC bid, the league could certainly bend quite a bit in order to make it work, especially since they'd add a solid following. There's a lot that RIT has going for it and, geography aside, they bring everything you'd want to the table. But whatever they come up with has got to fit with the Ivy League's preferences, too. The Ivies have the power to blow up the league, so that makes their opinion matter just a little bit more.

Bentley or Sacred Heart: They fit the footprint, but not the gusto. Bentley at least is taking steps in the right direction on getting themselves an on-campus rink, but neither are ready for a step out of Atlantic Hockey.

Army: They've been in the ECAC in the past, and they're a fellow Patriot League member with Colgate, but if you can find anything that would suggest that they'd have a better time in the ECAC than the last time they were there that led to their departure, we'd love to hear about it.

Mercyhurst, Niagara, Canisius, or Robert Morris: No shot. Too far away for all of them. Canisius at least has a sparkly new rink, but that's about it.

American Interna OK, I can't even get to the joke here.

So the quick answer is that there's no really good answer to who makes the ECAC "whole" again if Quinnipiac or RPI leave. And that's problematic for the five non-Ivies that would be left - because if the Ivy League isn't satisfied with how things shake out, they've always got the option of striking out on their own, an option which arguably created Hockey East in the first place.

The real answer of "which team would best make #12" is a team that hasn't been around since 1978: Penn. The Quakers would pair supernaturally well with Princeton, and everything else would stay the same. Unfortunately there's no magic pixie dust that can be used to re-create a team at Penn in order to save the ECAC's bacon. Not to mention that Penn's addition would only make for a stronger possibility of an independent Ivy League down the road, possibly one day made whole if they ever learn about hockey in Morningside Heights.

Bottom line? It's time to tread carefully right now, especially if you're Hockey East and Quinnipiac is unavailable, because there's no other really good answer for #12. If you're Quinnipiac and RPI, you've got to ask yourself if moving to Hockey East is really the best long-term plan, and if not, is the ECAC going to stay iron clad after Hockey East gains a new member?

A Rigged Game

College hockey has a remarkable ebb and flow to it, historically. Ten years ago, it seemed like nothing could ever stop the WCHA. From 2000 to 2006, the conference won the national title six times. From 1994 through 2010, there were no first-time national champions.

And now look at things. Since 2007, just one WCHA crown (and in modern terms, one Big Ten and one NCHC national championship). Since 2011, four of five national champions have been first-timers. And they're from places you wouldn't expect. Yale. Union. Providence. Your last three in a row, none of which were highly fancied at the beginning of their seasons.

Welcome to the new landscape of college hockey. It's all part and parcel of a history that created nationally recognizable programs in places like Colorado College and Clarkson and, until a couple of years ago, a highly insular structure with no national conferences to speak of.

And then along came the Big Ten.

"Men’s ice hockey is slightly more important to the Big Ten Network’s revenue stream than women’s field hockey, yet the conference was willing to blow up college hockey for a few hours of auxiliary programming," writes Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune this week. It's a perfect breakdown of why the hockey version of the Big Ten came into being, and what it did to the college hockey landscape. It was about programming for a conference television network focused on football and basketball, but needing other attractions to really make it tick. And it completely unraveled the long-standing order of things, especially out west.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Big Ten bigfooting the rest of college hockey. It didn't.

For a small conference - the smallest member-wise in college hockey - the Big Ten outpunches its size. Its six member schools have combined to win 23 national championships, more than any other conference (17 for the NCHC, 13 for Hockey East, 8 for the WCHA, 7 for the ECAC). But that's an accounting of the past, and this is now.

In its first season, the Big Ten did earn two of the #1 seedings in the NCAA tournament. But last year, its champion - Minnesota - could only manage a #3 seed, and the Gophers were the only Big Ten entrant, unceremoniously dumped by Minnesota-Duluth in the first round. Wisconsin labored last season as one of the worst teams in the nation, and this year, the entire conference outside of Michigan and Penn State is slouching out of the gate with pretty rough records.

So where's the problem? How did big money Minnesota, with its 10,000 seat arena and regional TV contract get embarrassed on national television in 2014 by a small liberal arts school in Upstate New York that plays its home games in a tea cup?

The answer lies heavily in the difference in the way Union and many small schools have been recruiting. If you've been paying close enough attention, the recent Frozen Four appearances by Bemidji State, RIT, Ferris State, and Union should not be blowing your mind. They're instructive instead. These schools don't grab the blue-chip prospects ready for college hockey when they turn 18. Those players go to Boston University (like Jack Eichel), or Michigan (like Dylan Larkin), or Wisconsin (like Nic Kerdiles). And they don't go there very long. Eichel and Larkin left after their freshman years, Kerdiles after his sophomore year.

No, Union built a national championship on the backs of older players who developed longer in junior hockey. Guys that were more experienced as freshmen at the age of 20 or 21 than even those blue-chippers. The next first-round draft pick may not be coming to play for Quinnipiac, but they'll gladly live with bringing in an older player who's going to be around for four years - and potentially playing as seniors at the age of 24 and 25. It's a great equalizer.

And the Big Ten has decided that it isn't fair.  (If you haven't read the story yet, click the link. Adam Wodon of College Hockey News breaks it down very well.)

Their solution? Without consulting the rest of the college hockey world at the annual meeting in Naples, FL, they decided instead to unilaterally submit legislation to be voted on by the NCAA - which they can do because they're the only "all sports conference" in college hockey - that would reduce the age limit before recruits will lose eligibility from 21 to 20.

The big, bad Big Ten needs the playing field leveled against those piteous little upstarts in Canton, NY and Duluth, MN, don't you see? It's just not fair.

Now, hockey does differ from most NCAA sports in the average age of freshmen, but it differs from most NCAA sports in a lot of other ways, too. Major league draftees don't lose eligibility. The aforementioned lack of "all sports conferences." The season length is longer. And of course, the sheer number of "play-up" teams. These are all by-products of college hockey's long-term niche presence and the nature of youth and junior hockey structures.

The Big Ten's excuse for all of this is that they're simply trying to bring hockey closer to being in line with the rest of the NCAA, even though it would be completely unacceptable to require recruits to be on campus immediately after they graduate high school. And why is that? What's the rationale?

We wrote five years ago about the recruiting game and how the NHL was changing things. The NCAA is becoming an ever increasing route for players to reach the pros - more than 30% of NHL players are NCAA alums now, as opposed to just over 20% a decade ago, and far less a decade before that. There was a time that even the very best players would stay for their entire four-year college career before jumping to the NHL. Today, pro contracts can frequently be in the offing even for guys that aren't likely to get a whole lot of ice time at the highest level, to say nothing of the blue-chip prospects.

Ironically, when we wrote that, we were expecting Brandon Pirri and Jerry D'Amigo to return to Troy for their sophomore seasons - and they didn't. So schools like RPI aren't looking for the Pirris and D'Amigos anymore. They're looking for the Chase Polaceks and Nick Bailens. It's the Mat Bodies and Jesse Roots of the world that are winning national championships. It's guys that are staying in college, finishing their education, and playing for four years that are powering the best teams in the country.

Most players who are playing in juniors into their early 20s aren't going to be NHL prospects - if they were, they'd have been pushed to college already, or headed off to major junior. But these players are also far more likely to graduate one day - which is supposed to be the point first and foremost.

Now, does this proposal explode the system? Not entirely. Players are still going to be able to mature in juniors for a couple of seasons before coming to college. But it stinks for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the underhanded way the Big Ten went about doing this. They are trying to ram it through with a vote among college administrators of whom a majority doesn't care a lick about hockey (which should sound familiar if you remember the Prop 65 battle a decade ago). They're doing it over the protestations of the vast majority of college hockey coaches (who opposed the measure 49-11 in a straw poll of all 60 of them), and probably worst of all, it skews things more in the favor of the schools that already have a lot of the advantages when it comes to recruiting in the first place.

Yes, these same institutions who don't bat an eye at accepting the commitment of players not even old enough to drive - and sometimes not even old enough to be in high school - have a problem with RIT stocking their roster with 21-year-old Canadian freshmen. Hear that? That's the sound of the world's tiniest violin. Getting beat by 24 and 25 year olds? Why don't you recruit some 20 and 21 year old freshmen yourself? Seems reasonable enough. Instead of adapting, however, these schools just want to rig the game in their favor instead.

College hockey continues to change. Beyond the Big Ten, it started changing again last year when Arizona State decided to go varsity, a move which could well encourage more big money schools to do the same in parts of the country previously untouched by college hockey. It's good for the sport. But it brings with it the challenge of maintaining traditions. I always love to point out the 1996 national championship game between Michigan and Colorado College as a perfect example of what makes college hockey special - in any other sport, the Wolverines would easily crush the Tigers, but in hockey, the titan and the minnow can meet on equal terms. Perhaps the 2014 title game is an even better example - the minnow won.

But we risk losing that if legislation like this is allowed to go through, especially in the manner that the power schools are trying to accomplish it. And that would be a complete shame.

New World Order

We are in the final season of the fourth iteration of the conference system in college hockey. Next year, things are going to look mighty different.

Fourth, you ask? What were the other three? Well, here they are, roughly.

1961 - 1981: The ECAC and the WCHA rule the roost, though the latter is generally stronger. Every national championship during this time period was won by a team from one of these conferences, through to 1983. The CCHA begins as a relatively minor conference midway through this period.

1981 - 1985: Still largely a period of dominance between the ECAC and the WCHA, but the CCHA's addition of Michigan and Michigan State shifts the balance a bit away from the WCHA.

1985 - 2000: The Hockey East split leads to a shift of power between the new conference, the WCHA, and the CCHA, with the ECAC in slow decline, especially after the early 1990s.

2000 - 2013: The era of the "Big Three," as the ECAC moves out of a position of power to become the lone mid-major, while the MAAC/AHA comes to being as the lone minor conference.

2013 - ???: The Big Ten tsunami rearranges the college hockey landscape as never before.

What could we be looking at in this fifth iteration of conference paradigm in college hockey?

Well, now that every team has lost a game this season, let's look at the current KRACH ratings to see where the new conference structure would stand if it were theoretically in place today - not a perfect comparison, since conference schedules will shift, but this is what it looks like.

Hockey East - 1, 2, 6, 7, 14, 19, 26, 34, 43, 44, 45, 52
NCHC - 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 18, 20, 39
ECAC - 4, 5, 8, 13, 16, 17, 21, 23, 31, 32, 33, 46
Big Ten - 12, 27, 37, 42, 49, 54
WCHA - 24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 38, 50
Atlantic Hockey - 22, 40, 41, 47, 48, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 59
Independents - 58

Look at the NCHC - that's a holy cow stat right there. Seven of its eight teams are currently among the 20 best in the nation, and the eighth (Minnesota-Duluth) won a national championship two years ago. Think that might be a power conference?

The Big Ten is having a shockingly bad season in it's year before birth (to wit - independent Penn State is ranked ahead of 1-7-2 Wisconsin, and Michigan ain't that far ahead of them), but this season is likely the exception and not the rule, considering that four of the six teams in the conference are regulars in the national tournament under the current structure.

Also, no one can deny Hockey East's excellent standing, especially with Notre Dame about to join the fold. Three of its usual "Big Four" are off to a great start (Maine... not so much), although the biggest problem Hockey East faces is its gap between haves and have nots. Providence's decent start has them somewhere in the middle (26th), but besides the Friars there's a big gap between UMass-Lowell (19th) and Merrimack (34th). Still, in recent seasons we've seen the Warriors competitive and the River Hawks not so competitive. They'll be a strong conference.

Atlantic Hockey, with all but two of its teams outside the top 2/3 of the nation, will continue their current role of providing their tournament winner an automatic bid and nothing more. They are still a cost-containment league and until that changes, they are where they are.

That leaves the fate of the original two up for ponderance... the ECAC and the WCHA.

First, the ECAC. The only changes our league needs to worry about is how the shifting paradigms affect recruiting. The last shift certainly affected things for the worse, but with five teams offering a full complement of scholarships and the league as a whole attractive for the educational side, there's only so far the ECAC will slide. It's probably already reached the bottom, really.

But the new WCHA could be in an almost worse situation than the ECAC, and quickly. A mashup of the leftovers between the CCHA and current WCHA after the Big Ten and NCHC tore away basically all of their top programs, it's hard to peg an absolute best program from this new group of nine. By KRACH, right now, it's Alaska followed by Ferris State. You'd almost have to call the Bulldogs early favorites.

The currently comprised ECAC has won only five national championships, among only three of its members, and none since 1989 (Harvard). The new WCHA will have eight, among four members, but none since 1994 (Lake Superior State). That's not overly dissimilar.

There's one other way to look at which conference has the most power teams - NCAA bids. The conferences have averaged the following total bids per season in the last 10 years (since the tournament was expanded).

WCHA - 4.4 mean, 4/5 median, 5 mode (High 6 - 2008; Low 3 - 2007 and 2009)
CCHA - 3.9 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2004 and 2012, Low 3 - 2003)
Hockey East - 3.6 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2007; Low 2 - 2008)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)

Now apply the total bids per season to the new conferences.

NCHC - 4.2 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 7 - 2011; Low 3 - 2003 and 2005)
Hockey East - 4.1 mean (High 6 - 2007; Low 3 - 2008 and 2010)
Big Ten - 3.1 mean, 3 median, 3/4 mode (High 5 - 2004; Low 1 - 2011)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)
WCHA - 0.9 mean, 1 median, 0/1 mode (High 3 - 2010; Low 0 - 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011)

That's astounding to see. In the new WCHA, there were four different years in the last ten that none of the teams made the tournament. In fact, between 2004 and 2009 (six consecutive years), there wasn't a single team that will play in the WCHA next year that earned an at-large bid - Bemidji State, on three occasions in that span, won the CHA's automatic bid.

What does that mean? Well, for starters, it means the WCHA is dropping off a long ways prestige-wise. But a cursory look at the numbers tells us that, at least at first, hockey's new world order is still going to consist of the "Big Three," but two of those will be brand new conferences. The ECAC will still be a mid-major, in all likelihood.

The WCHA, however, looks like it's going to have to fight - and hard - to be mid-major level. It essentially ended up as the Island of Misfit Toys after realignment, and although its autobid now represents a big chance for teams that frequently don't get to compete for either the WCHA or CCHA autobid most years in the past, the new league may be hard-pressed to pick up an at-large bid even with the regularity of the ECAC, which almost always gets one and not unfrequently snags a second.

The NCHC, once it gets assembled, will almost certainly never get 7 bids as it did in 2011 (that would be almost the entire league, and someone has to finish in last), but the mean totals could average out about right. That would likely mean, more often than not, the WCHA will probably have to settle for its autobid, but at least they'll probably grab an extra bid every once in a while, which pegs them above Atlantic Hockey. But it looks like a quick drop from the top for college hockey's oldest conference, almost certainly quicker than the ECAC's fall from grace. Their motto is "just got tougher," put in place after Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha joined the fold. They can keep it next year, but it'll have a different meaning.

Penn State: Light in the Darkness

It's hard to get past it in hindsight.

At the press conference in State College, PA that began the shake-up of the college hockey universe on September 17, 2010, the benefactors of varsity hockey at Penn State, Kim and Terry Pegula, sat flanked by two individuals for whom it made perfect sense to be there - athletic director Tim Curley and university president Graham Spanier. Both men discussed the excitement they felt to be making a step forward, bringing big time college hockey to a sixth Big Ten campus in two years' time.

Fast forward almost two years. Watching the announcement now, knowing the secret both men had been hiding for over a decade, and the impact isn't quite the same. Now, with Spanier fired, Curley on a leave of absence and under indictment, and the school's premier athletic program under a crippling sanction announced earlier this week by the NCAA and the Big Ten, varsity hockey at Penn State will take the ice for the first time in three months under a cloud of shame that now hangs over the entire school.

And the school itself may not yet be out of the woods. As former NCAA.org blogger John Infante says, Penn State may yet be subject to sanction by the federal Department of Education for violations of the Clery Act, which requires schools receiving federal financial aid to publicly report any crime on or near campus. The potential penalties include significant fines or even a prohibition from receiving federal aid, a move which would be akin to a "death penalty" for the entire school.

Could the Penn State scandal have an impact on college hockey? Some have asked if the harsh sanctions applied to the school's cash cow athletic program could produce problems for its 28 other varsity programs, potentially including the new kinds on the block in men's and women's hockey. The short answer, at least as it pertains to hockey, is: probably not. Hockey in Happy Valley is fortunate to be the child of private investment, for both scholarships and new facilities. Construction continues unabated on Pegula Ice Arena, which is slated to be done in about a year, just in time for the start of the hockey version of the Big Ten. The only real fallout from the NCAA sanctions (and the scandal itself) is how potential recruits view the school's reputation in the future.

The only thing hockey fans would have to fear is that "death penalty" from the federal government - an occurrence that would potentially undermine the school in a fundamental manner to make athletics there very difficult to maintain in any real capacity. That would probably lead to some very intense pressure by the other Big Ten schools on fellow conference institutions without varsity hockey due to the irreparable destruction of existing hockey conference bonds making status quo ante bellum highly unlikely (no fewer than 19 programs are slated to change conferences next year).

Honestly, though, it's not even worth pondering that scenario for a couple of reasons. First, it's more frequently an exercise left to those who continue to resent Penn State for helping to alter the college hockey landscape that people had gotten used to; really, those resistant to change. Second, Penn State is likely "too big to fail," as Infante said of them, and it's unlikely the government would intentionally cripple such a large school, putting literally tens of thousands of students' academic careers into chaos.

I prefer to turn the question on its head. Perhaps college hockey can have an impact on the Penn State scandal.

There's no doubt that Penn State is enduring the darkest moments in its 157-year history. Powerful people at the school chose to look the other way while a monster committed unspeakable crimes against the most innocent members of society. Those people have now been removed, responsible parties punished or on their way to punishment, and the program which benefited most from the cover-up has been set back at least five years, and likely well over a decade.

But hockey is a unique sport. It's quite niche, given the fact that the usual east/west split is the Ohio/Pennsylvania border rather than the Mississippi River, and the fact that Alabama-Huntsville continues to be viewed as something of an oddity. Small schools regularly compete with large schools, and sometimes, they even win. And above all, it can be akin to a family, something which anyone who's been to even one Frozen Four can attest. Scholarship scandals tend to be on the rare side, and sanctions are unusual - only two Division I programs have ever had to vacate Frozen Four appearances, and none since 1992.

So we think back to that day two years ago when Penn State and the rest of the college hockey world was excited for varsity hockey in State College, a place that had already proven itself with rabid support for a club program and represented the first major university coming into the sport in decades. Look past the guilty parties that were part of that announcement and see through to the promise of a brighter future for a place in need of some serious healing. Consider Guy Gadowsky, the man who made Princeton hockey relevant again, who always brings to town a team that plays a style that's fun to watch.

Penn State comes to the Capital District in late November to take on Union, right after Thanksgiving. RPI has that weekend off. Let's head up Route 7, welcome college hockey's newest kids on the block, and hope and pray that the potential for excellence on the ice in central Pennsylvania can be the start of a new and positive chapter for a once-great institution that lost its way.

And, while you're thinking about Penn State, why not surf on over to Thank You Terry, a Penn State hockey blog worth bookmarking. Headed up by the very well written Kyle Rossi, if you've got any misgivings about Penn State's hockey future, you'll be sure to lose them by checking out his excellent advocacy.

ECAC: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The final piece of the puzzle in the upcoming conference scramble appears to be falling into place with reports last week of Hockey East and UConn inching closer together. Reports are that the Huskies are likely to join Hockey East in 2014-15, one season after what we referred to last offseason as "the tsunami" strikes college hockey's shores, irreparably changing the landscape as we know it.

With Hockey East now apparently destined for the 12 teams most everyone expected they'd finish with, there's only one question remaining - the long-term fate of Alabama-Huntsville. Given a reprieve by the school in December when the school reversed its much-maligned decision to scuttle the program, the Chargers will enter their third season without a conference this October and will still require a place to call home in order to secure their long-term existence.

With UConn set to depart Atlantic Hockey, that leaves the ECAC as the only conference to be completely untouched by "the tsunami." 12 teams when the process started, same 12 teams when it concludes.

Some, especially the powers that be in Albany, would call that a pretty good outcome. Stability is a good thing, as the schools which scrambled to find a home as the CHA and CCHA each disintegrated will tell you.

But how stable is the ECAC, really, and given the current state of the college hockey world, how much benefit is there for teams in the stable ECAC? We've long said that the league no longer qualifies as a "major conference" (at least since the very late 1990s) and that is even more likely to be true once the landscape changes in favor of the new big three: Hockey East, the NCHC, and the Big Ten. With an additional new "mid-major" likely to develop from the new WCHA and basically all of the big power schools concentrated in the Big Three, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the ECAC's decline to accelerate.

What could change things? There are two potential events on the horizon that could very well help tip the apple cart - neither are sure to happen, but neither would be a shock to the system, either.

1) The Ivy League. As we've said before, the Ivy six represent a veritable Sword of Damocles hanging over the integrity of the conference, and the sword has hung for decades, especially the last three following the Hockey East split. The Ivy League competes as its own entity in... pretty much every sport known to man. Men's and women's hockey is a very notable exception.

What would the Ivies gain from a split? They would stand to gain quite a lot, as Harvard's Brendan Roche (WHRB play-by-play announcer and all-around good guy) pointed out in a post last year while discussing the possibility of the ECAC losing RPI or Quinnipiac to Hockey East. First and foremost could well be scheduling: the Ivy League is limited to 29 regular-season games a year, and with 22 of those games earmarked for ECAC contests, that leaves them with only 7 non-conference games to play around with - just five for Harvard, which plays two of its NC games in the Beanpot every year. A six-team league could feature 4 games a season with league teams (all better draws than the non-Ivies currently are), and open two more non-conference opportunities.

Most of Roche's other points are very well taken. It makes sense for them from a marketing standpoint. With the Big Ten coming into being next year, it would give them the ability to showcase an all-sports brand, something that could come in handy when competing with the Big Ten, the NCHC, and Hockey East for talent. They'd also gain their own autobid to the NCAA tournament, though this is a bit of a wash with 9 of the last 11 ECAC autobids going to Ivy teams (Clarkson in 2007 and Union in 2012 the exceptions).

There's nothing the six non-Ivies can do about this, not anymore. None of them would fit into the west-centric NCHC (not that the league would want them if they tried) or WCHA, Hockey East is closed, and the only way out is to a lower league in Atlantic Hockey. The only reasonable option if an Ivy exit happens would be to reconstitute with programs from Atlantic Hockey that are seeking to move up in the world. We're talking about RIT, Niagara, Robert Morris, Holy Cross, and the like.

Of course, the non-Ivies could proactively split, but it's the same scenario. Compare the Ivies to the teams mentioned. With no disrespect intended to those teams (which are honestly trying to boost their competition level), but it's a step down for the ECAC non-Ivies as much as it's a step up for those teams. The only silver lining in all of this seems to be the autobid, but this would in all eventuality be a conference with only marginally better chances of attracting at-large bids than Atlantic Hockey currently does. The ECAC, at the very least, typically draws at least one at-large bid every year, giving some incentive for the non-Ivies to hold onto the marriage as long as the Ivies are still OK with it.

2) Notre Dame and the Big Ten. This is something that has been discussed, literally, for almost a century, since the first overtures between the parties were made in 1926. While the first possibility revolves entirely around hockey, this one revolves almost entirely upon football, with ripples that could now be felt in the hockey world, given the recent changes to the landscape.

Notre Dame's independence in football is storied - it gives their historic program the opportunity to set their entire schedule, and allows them to negotiate their own national television contract (with NBC) with an exclusivity that helps keep their brand front and center. But Notre Dame football isn't what it was for decade after decade of the 20th century. They haven't won a national championship since 1988 and haven't played for one since 1991. No Heisman Trophy winners since 1987. In the 14 seasons of the BCS, they've played in a BCS bowl only three times, losing all three. They haven't finished the season in the Top 25 of the national rankings since 2006 and only four times since 2000.

What's more, Big Ten football is beginning to eclipse Notre Dame in drawing power and revenues, especially with its Big Ten network. Big Ten schools are now pulling in more TV revenue individually than Notre Dame and their exclusive contract, and as the Irish continue to struggle to be nationally relevant on the gridiron, that inequity may only increase as the years progress.

What does this have to do with hockey, you ask? Well, Notre Dame has long seemed a perfect fit for the Big Ten, and if the economics of it all push the Irish to move football (and everything else) to the Big Ten, it'll take hockey right along with it.

That would create a dilemma for Hockey East. Now back to 11 teams and missing a star attraction, what course of action do BU and BC take? Both reportedly spurned NCHC bids previously, thought in large part to be because of Notre Dame's potential addition to Hockey East. Does that suddenly become an option for those teams? Either way, you're then looking at a 9 or 11 team Hockey East, with openings once again.

These scenarios illustrate the tricky spot the ECAC finds itself in, both as an integral unit and as two different halves. For the non-Ivy League teams especially, there could be a glass ceiling forming just as Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, and Union were proving that the Division II and III schools still had room to succeed at the highest levels.

The NCAA Field, By Conference

We're probably going to go into relatively early hibernation mode here at WaP... which usually exists from April until late May as a bit of a "season recovery" period, but there are still a few things left to say.

First, a quick analysis of the NCAA Tournament, as it pertains to the shifting sands of league alignment. How much of each league got to the dance this year?

The tournament breaks down like this:
5/11 CCHA (Michigan, Miami, Ferris State, Western Michigan, Michigan State) - 45%
4/10 Hockey East (Boston College, Boston University, Maine, UMass-Lowell) - 40%
4/12 WCHA (North Dakota, Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver) - 33%
2/12 ECAC (Union, Cornell) - 17%
1/12 AHA (Air Force) - 8%

Or... maybe it looks like this instead:
5/9 NCHC (North Dakota, Miami, Western Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver) - 56%
3/6 Big Ten (Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State) - 50%
4/11 Hockey East (Boston College, Boston University, Maine, UMass-Lowell) -  36%
2/12 ECAC (Union, Cornell) - 17%
1/9  WCHA (Ferris State) - 11%
1/12 AHA (Air Force) - 8%

Are we seeing the bigger picture yet? Obviously, the field probably changes once realignment actually happens, but it's fairly clear that the haves and the have nots, already well established, are about to become even moreso.

Tsunami Watch: The Flood Recedes

This is our final edition of Tsunami Watch. Why? Because the radical changes in the college hockey world caused by the advent of varsity hockey at Penn State are over.

But, you say, the most exciting part of all could be just around the corner for RPI! Perhaps. But it will be a secondary reaction if it happens.

Here is where we currently stand for 2013-14.

* There will essentially be one new conference: the Big Ten. Thus, at the end of the day, we're back to six conferences, where we were when the CHA was still around.

* The CCHA membership will disperse into four of those six conferences - Notre Dame to Hockey East, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State to the Big Ten, Miami and Western Michigan to the NCHC, and the balance to the WCHA.

* The WCHA, while it will continue to exist, will look radically different, with three less teams than they currently stand and, really, no programs that would be considered power programs. We could be talking about a WCHA that moves to the level of the ECAC.

* The only thing left to shake out will be autobids, which may not be back to six until 2015-16 under the rules. NCAA regulations say six teams of any league must have been playing together for two full seasons before they can have the autobid conferred upon them. That would seem to leave out the Big Ten off the bat since the rule applies to specific sports, but it could also leave the NCHC and the WCHA high and dry.

The NCHC might have the excuse that six of their teams have been playing together in the WCHA. The new-look WCHA, however, has only 4 teams that have played together in the previous incarnation of the league, and only 5 that played together in the CCHA.

That leaves us with four scenarios.

1) The WCHA, as the previously existing league, gets an autobid, while the NCHC has to wait two years.

2) The NCHC, as the league with six previously existing league members, gets an autobid, while the WCHA has to do without for a couple of seasons.

3) Both leagues get an autobid.

4) Neither league gets an autobid.

And, of course, the Big Ten could somehow manage to get a waiver for a supposedly unwaiverable rule.

Anyway, here's what the college hockey landscape looks like after the tsunami. The only potential secondary changes are a 12th team for Hockey East and, if that team comes from the ECAC, a move by an Atlantic Hockey team into the ECAC. Any further discussions by the discontented programs of Atlantic Hockey at a new conference would be on its own track.

Big Ten

Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

NCHC

Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota, St. Cloud State and Western Michigan.

WCHA

Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Ferris State, Lake Superior State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State and Northern Michigan.

Hockey East

Boston College, Boston University, Maine, Merrimack, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Providence, UMass, UMass-Lowell and Vermont.

ECAC & Atlantic Hockey

Unchanged

Independents

Alabama-Huntsville

Recently discussed potential new programs

Buffalo and MSU-Moorhead

Tsunami Watch: Double Dipping

Just when you thought the conference carousel might be slowing down, something happens and it kicks right back into full gear once more.

Without much notice, it was announced yesterday that the NCHC would offer membership to Western Michigan and St. Cloud State. The former wasn't much of a surprise, as the Broncos had an offer on the table already, but the latter was... surprising to say the least. Almost as surprising, the Huskies quickly accepted, going against statements the school had made a couple of months ago.

Why the turn around? Well, for one, everyone's still waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do. In the meantime, the NCHC had only six teams: Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Nebraska-Omaha. Those are some high powered programs, and one of them has to come in last. Thus, thanks to the NCAA's rule that no team with a sub-.500 record can earn an at-large bid to the national tournament, the league would probably restricted to three or, at a maximum, four bids a year. Thus, the need to expand, and in a hurry.

So where does that leave us? Well, let's break it down.

Western Michigan: At the end of the day, this one's not too surprising, especially once St. Cloud was given an offer as well. WMU, through their actions over the last year, have proven that they are going to give 110% to their hockey program, and their athletic director has a stated goal for the program of a national championship. The huge raise they gave Jeff Blashill before the Red Wings came calling and the hiring of NHL coach Andy Murray is plenty to indicate an up and coming program, and the NCHC, in the long run, is probably the best place for the program given those goals.

St. Cloud State: This one's a little more surprising and there's already been a lot of debate in St. Cloud as to whether this was the right move to make. First off, when the NCHC was first announced, SCSU was adamant that they wanted nothing to do with the league and that they planned to take a leading role in the new WCHA. Secondly, when the "new" WCHA started to congeal, most observes had the Huskies pegged as one of the programs that could potentially dominate the conference on a regular basis, leading to more frequent NCAA appearances and, in turn, better shots at the Frozen Four and the national title.

Now, SCSU will have to fight with the big dogs of the NCHC - not that they haven't tangled with most of the teams in the league before, but there were also some minnows to fall back on in the WCHA. They won't have that in the NCHC. They also suddenly look like one of the villains just months after promising to be a hero for the WCHA. This move will help the school with their visibility, but they may find it a tougher row to hoe in the long run.

It's also worth noting that with this move, St. Cloud State turns its back on its MnSCU brethren in Bemidji and Mankato, something that definitely won't sit well with those programs. The loss of St. Cloud State takes an already weakening conference and makes it decidedly more weak.

Notre Dame: Once again, the Fighting Irish dither while the rest of the hockey world moves in anticipation of what they may or may not do. The options are still mostly the same as we've gone over many times before - NCHC, Hockey East, or independence - but in the much larger picture (not something hockey fans are used to examining), there may be a fourth option opening.

If you've been paying attention to the NCAA as a whole lately, you've seen the carousel going on at the highest levels as well, with teams changing conferences left and right. The Big East especially seems to be in serious danger of either fracturing outright or what we should probably call WCHA-ization in that they won't be much of a major conference anymore by the time the wheel stops spinning. The problem here is that while Notre Dame is famously independent in football, they're a member of the Big East in everything else. If the Big East implodes, Notre Dame will need a new home, and the rumor that will never die always revolves around the Big Ten. So that route may yet be open.

By the way, there's even talk of these BCS superconferences breaking from the NCAA altogether - and that would make some serious waves in college hockey as well since you're talking the Big Ten plus Boston College and Notre Dame among those. Topic for another day, perhaps, but... that would make this tsunami look like a ripple in a kiddie pool.

Bowling Green: The only other CCHA program without a dance partner, the Falcons appear to be out of options other than the still-pending WCHA invitation. If the NCHC had any interest in BGSU, they probably would have already sent them an invite, and since league members are already talking about how eight teams is fine and a ninth would have to bring a lot to the table (code for Notre Dame), BGSU might as well just take the WCHA invite while they have it.

Alabama-Huntsville: This new development actually opens the door a little bit for the Chargers as it pertains to the WCHA. Adding BGSU would leave the WCHA in the same place they were before this new development: nine teams. UAH could potentially round that back off to ten... if they can find a way to be palatable to a league that's already going to have to deal with having a pair of teams from Alaska in it, as we've already mentioned.

NCHC: Sitting pretty now that they've got a couple more teams to boost that at-large potential. The numbers and teams involved definitely make the conference better able to compete with the Big Ten head to head, which was the goal all along, though purists will point to its makeup - 6 WCHA teams and 2 CCHA teams - and call it a WCHA rehash, more polite than asking UAA, MTU, Mankato, and Bemidji to leave.

Big Ten: Of course, it's worth mentioning that the Big Ten, like the NCHC before yesterday's announcement, has only six members right now, and thus has the same issue with top programs potentially being forced out of the NCAAs due to their record. Unlike the NCHC, however, the Big Ten doesn't have any real prospects for expansion on the horizon (with the possible exception of the Notre Dame scenario above). The league has the stability that comes with direct affiliation with a major non-hockey conference, but it also has the limitation that it can't just throw invites to teams the way the NCHC just did. If the Big Ten expands, it's going to be with new varsity programs at Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska-Lincoln, Northwestern, or Purdue. That's it.

By the way, do you know who the sub-.500 at-large rule now benefits the most? WCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC teams.

RPI: Speaking of ECAC teams... we're still keeping an eye on the Notre Dame situation as it could pertain to new opportunities for RPI as we discussed earlier this summer. There are two things this NCHC expansion does to the metric we laid out for a potential RPI-Hockey East merger. First, it makes larger conferences more acceptable again. Second, it may increase the likelihood of Notre Dame choosing Hockey East, though they're certainly still more than welcome in the NCHC. As it is, there's little doubt that RPI is keeping a hawk an eagle eye on Notre Dame and weighing their own options. As always, stay tuned.

Tsunami Watch: Settling Point?

While we dry out a bit here in Irene-ravaged Troy (which was almost wholly to blame for this not running yesterday), here's the latest on the conference carousel that may soon be grinding to a halt.

Last week, the rumored WCHA-CCHA merger that had been discussed came to fruition as the WCHA offered membership to the remaining members of the CCHA with the exception of Notre Dame, which is still on the fence between the NCHC and Hockey East (and, apparently, becoming an independent).

Alaska, Lake Superior State, and Ferris State quickly accepted. Thus, the WCHA currently looks like this in 2013:

Alaska

Alaska-Anchorage

Bemidji State

Ferris State

Lake Superior State

Michigan Tech

Minnesota State

Northern Michigan

St. Cloud State

There's one thing that all of these schools have in common: Division II. That may be one of the things that is causing hesitation for the other two WCHA invitees, Bowling Green and Western Michigan, both of whom play at the highest level of Division I.

That leaves the following remaining question marks.

Notre Dame: Once again, it was something other than Notre Dame which moved first. We all thought the Irish would be the first to make a move... they're now almost certain to be last. Well... maybe next to last.

The options are still pretty much laid bare on the table. They're one of three remaining CCHA teams, so they can't reasonably stay there - not that that's ever been something that was realistic to begin with. They've got a standing offer from the NCHC, and Hockey East wouldn't say no if they wanted to join there.

If Notre Dame preferred to align themselves with the Big Ten, there's another option that the Irish could be considering - independence. Now, this wouldn't leave the Irish as independents in the style of Alabama-Huntsville, which will be in its second season of fully cobbling together a schedule this year, but rather, would be a situation where the Irish had long-term scheduling arrangements with other leagues, almost certainly with the Big Ten and probably with the NCHC as well. Such an arrangement would allow Notre Dame to keep playing the schools they're already used to playing without having to tether themselves to the Big Ten (which they've famously refused to do for decades) or a conference largely consisted of less prestigious institutions in the NCHC. They wouldn't be able to vie for an automatic bid and they'd have to find a way to keep playing into March (when the conferences are in tournament mode), but with the scheduling arrangements, a good Irish team with a solid record would probably be in contention for an NCAA bid without much problem.

Bowling Green: The Falcons are in an interesting position. They have the WCHA invite in their back pocket, but as a Division I school, they could arguably have the clout to join the NCHC, which would probably like to grow larger than just six schools - not to mention that BGSU's MAC cohorts, Miami, are already there. They're almost certainly going to wait to see what Notre Dame does before making a decision.

Western Michigan: The Broncos are, even more than BGSU, waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do, in part because their proximity to South Bend could potentially allow them to latch on with the Irish as a travel partner in either the NCHC or Hockey East. It remains to be seen if the latter would be interested at all in WMU, though the former has apparently already extended an offer. Now they also have an offer from the WCHA. Options abound. It's amazing what one outstanding rebound season combined with a new commitment from administration will do for a program.

Atlantic Hockey: The WCHA-CCHA merger kills any chance that the four potential departures - Canisius, Mercyhurst, Niagara, and Robert Morris - had of being able to leave, since they had interest in playing in a revamped CCHA that will no longer exist. Those schools - and RIT as well - still have interest in improving their station in college hockey, however. What options do they have? Honestly, they don't have many places to turn. They could seek to join the ECAC, but even with the WCHA filling back up again, there's not much of a reason for the ECAC to expand (further diluting the pool for the automatic bid). For the time being, they're probably stuck where they are.

Alabama-Huntsville: The WCHA-CCHA merger is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Chargers... unless they can somehow petition the WCHA to become its 10th, 11th, or 12th member. The problem is, we're already talking about a league that is going to have to figure a way to include a pair of schools as isolated as Alaska and Alaska-Anchorage, bringing on another isolated team - and another D-II school - might be a dicey proposition.

Tsunami Watch: Western Redux

Now that everything we ever knew about college hockey is basically wrong, it's time to re-examine the moving parts out west again, since everything we discussed in previous editions of Tsunami Watch with regards to those teams has changed somewhat.

By the way, we've been talking like this is all going down right away... 2013 is when the actual shifting will all take place. So we've at least got two more seasons of relative calm as it pertains to the actual product on the ice.

Big Ten: The Big Ten is still pretty much hunky dory. There's not much out there that is going to change, given the league's status not just as an all-sports conference, but as one of the BCS conferences. It's worth mentioning, I suppose, that because of the Big Ten's status as a new hockey conference, the teams within will have to forego an automatic bid to the national tournament in 2014 and 2015 due to the NCAA's requirement that new conferences wait for two years before receiving an autobid.

NCHC: The six teams that currently make up the NCHC are all set - North Dakota, Denver, Colorado College, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, and Miami. Chances are pretty solid that they'd like to bring in at least one or two more teams, and Notre Dame is number one on that list, no question. More on them (and the other candidates) later. Like the Big Ten, the NCHC will have to forego an autobid until 2016, though it would be beyond shocking if the league's members didn't earn an at-large or two at minimum.

WCHA: The five remaining schools - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State, and St. Cloud State, appear to be rallying around the WCHA flag. There's no doubt that this league will be signifcantly weaker than the one we have known, and the MnSCU institutions (Bemidji, Mankato, and St. Cloud) are poised to take a leading role in the future of the conference.

Northern Michigan: They're on their way back to the WCHA, which they played in from 1984 through 1997. This reunites the Wildcats with their rivals from Michigan Tech, and it puts the WCHA back on somewhat more secure footing as NMU becomes the sixth team. If nothing else, the WCHA will continue to have their automatic bid come 2013 - the question now is whether the league can stay strong enough to be able to produce an at-large bid as well.

Notre Dame: We started out with Notre Dame as the pivot, but the NCHC clearly wasn't willing to wait to see what the Irish would do and took the second step themselves. Now we've got a third step with NMU moving to the WCHA and we could see other teams reacting to the Big Ten/NCHC combination, but no future step will be as big as where Notre Dame ends up. There are really only two options here - either the NCHC or Hockey East. The WCHA is no longer a viable option following the NCHC split since it doesn't offer the Irish anything they wouldn't get out of staying in the CCHA, which is now even less of an option as teams continue to bail. Word has it that the hockey staff prefers the NCHC, while the administration - i.e. the ones who will more than likely be making the final decision - are said to prefer Hockey East. What remains to be seen is whether the hockey people can influence the administration enough to get what they'd like.

We've already discussed the ins and outs of Notre Dame to Hockey East, what about the NCHC? From the administration's perspective, the NCHC is, like the CCHA following the Big Ten split, full of programs that may be hockey powers, but aren't among giants in other sports. The hockey people are certainly drawn to the regional hockey power aspect of the NCHC.

Western Michigan: Of the programs that make up "the rest," WMU actually seems to have the most options on the table. It's reported that they have a standing offer to join the NCHC. They could instead choose to follow NMU to the WCHA. They could hang with some of their CCHA conference mates and try to form the nucleus of a new CCHA. There are even rumors out there that WMU might be welcome in Hockey East if Notre Dame chooses that route, given the proximity of Kalamazoo to South Bend.

The last one is kind of a longshot - there's not much need for a team right near Notre Dame unless Hockey East decides to move to an ECAC-esque travel partner system, which doesn't make a great deal of sense. Right now, the most likely move appears to be a move into the NCHC to follow their Mid-American Conference brethren from Miami. The NCHC isn't doling out invitations on the cheap, and once WMU settles in with a new coach, they could well become the seventh team in the NCHC, though life would certainly not be easy for them there - they'd be a minnow among giants, at least at first.

Alaska: The Nanooks are in a tight spot. We've touched on why it's a bad idea for both Alaska schools to be in the same conference, and yet, when it comes to their survival, it might just end up happening anyway. Rumor has it that Alaska will apply for WCHA membership, which would put them with their rivals from Anchorage in what would then be an eight-team conference. That would almost certainly necessitate yearly trips to Alaska for the entire WCHA and require both UAF and UAA to get creative with non-conference games, but with the CCHA's existence in question, the Nanooks (and the Seawolves, who do depend on UAF for some games) probably feel that it's in their best interest to get themselves into an existing league.

Bowling Green: The Falcons, like their MAC colleagues from Western Michigan, also have options, but theirs are a little hazier. They could try for the WCHA, but they're a little far away from the rest of the conference and they'd be the only Division I program unless WMU decides on that path. They could stick around in the CCHA, especially if WMU chooses that path. NCHC or Hockey East bids would both be longshots.

Lake Superior State and Ferris State: These schools are absolutely stuck in limbo until something else happens. Neither are appealing to the WCHA or the NCHC due to the size of the schools and their geographic locations - which means they could well be dependent on the eventual survival of the CCHA in order to have a conference in 2013. They'll need to be proactive in recruiting new members, because it's going to require more than a few, and they're almost certainly going to come from Atlantic Hockey and the independent ranks (of which, there is only one, who we're getting to). That is a very difficult position to be in. They could forseeably try for WCHA membership, but remember, that conference is now completely comprised of smaller schools with smaller budgets and still involves a school from Alaska, if not two. The footprint can't grow by much more.

Niagara, Robert Morris, Mercyhurst, and Canisius: Recent reports have these four programs, known to be interested in moving up in the world, in discussions with the CCHA about joining that conference. The biggest problem right now? It's hard to know exactly what teams are concerned with the makeup of the CCHA in 2013. It seems that there's at most four - LSSU, Ferris, and maybe BGSU and/or WMU. That's a tough place to start from. One thing that is generally agreed upon here is that these four schools are almost certainly going to want to come into an Alaska-free CCHA. The inclusion of these four institutions would move the CCHA's footprint east, but it would guarantee the conference a minimum of six programs, even if four of them were new to the conference.

Air Force: If the above four teams leave Atlantic Hockey, it puts some additional pressure on Air Force to consider the new-look WCHA since it would leave AHA basically with Air Force, RIT, Holy Cross, and an assortment of low-budget or low-attention programs. The difficulty now, though, is that a WCHA comprised entirely of Minnesota, Alaska, and Upper Peninsula schools may not be terribly keen on bringing in a Colorado school, especially when both Alaska schools are involved.

Alabama-Huntsville: If the Big Ten was the best thing that could happen for UAH given the log-jam created by four full conferences and an 11-team CCHA unwilling to bring the Chargers on, the formation of the NCHC is probably one of the worst. It puts the power teams of the west, the ones with the most money and therefore most willing to bring in a team that requires more travel than the average program, into elite segments that UAH cannot hope to break into. That leaves the Chargers with two options - a CCHA largely comprised of teams that did not support their inclusion in the past, or an Atlantic Hockey that has lost some of its current programs. As with the Atlantic Hockey teams looking at the CCHA, UAH would almost certainly require Alaska to move out of the conference before they would be considered, but for the opposite reason: the existing schools of the CCHA would not be willing to deal with both UAH and UAF in the same conference, but might be more willing to stomach the Chargers without also having the Nanooks around.

MSU-Moorhead: WHO? Oh, you don't know the Dragons? That's probably because they don't have a varsity program. And yes, I said I wasn't going to engage in rampant speculation over schools without programs, but Moorhead has gone beyond speculation, announcing a fundraising drive last week for what they hope will be a new program in the near future. As a MnSCU school - the "MSU" stands for Minnesota State University - the Dragons would fit perfectly into the WCHA, given its new outlook. Let's not count them in quite yet, but they're hoping to be able to make an announcement of a new program in the coming months, so they're worth keeping an eye on.

So that's about where we stand right now. Waiting to see who the WCHA's new suitors are, what Notre Dame is going to do, and who WMU (and Northeastern, by the by) chooses as their new coach. Join us next time for another exciting edition of "As the Tsunami Turns."

Tsunami Watch: ECAC and Hockey East

The finale for our initial Tsunami Watch examination of the nation's teams brings us back home to the leagues RPI fans will find the most familiar - Hockey East, one of the nation's most powerful conferences, and the ECAC, RPI's home for the past 50 years.

These conferences are inextricably linked by the college hockey world's last major reorganization over a quarter-century ago, when Hockey East separated itself from the ECAC. Since then, the once powerful ECAC has been on a generally slow decline, though recent years have been much better for the nation's oldest conference.

We'll talk about both the ECAC and Hockey East in this edition, because when it comes to the teams of these conferences, there doesn't seem (at first) to be a great deal to talk about. Some variation in where they stand, but for the most part, the leagues on their face are not going to have to worry about seismic changes as western leagues are enduring.

Though, what there is to talk about is fairly similar all around.

Our very own ECAC is, perhaps, one of the most insulated from Big Ten inspired change in the nation given the "full" nature of the 12-team league (though that is subject to the opinion of the member schools - it's not like 12 is a firm limit) and the highly unlikely possibility that Notre Dame would consider the league, but there are possibilities out there.

Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Princeton and Yale: Collectively, of course, the Ivy League. They basically exist as a unit - that means Harvard isn't breaking off from the ECAC to join Hockey East, one of the idiotic suggestions that simply will not go away no matter how much it gets explained. If anyone ever suggests this, laugh at them.

There have been rumors since... well, since practically the beginning of time that the Ivies could break off and start their own league, most notably in the mid-1980s when the possibility was one of the factors that led to the creation of Hockey East's secession from the ECAC. Could it happen? Sure. Will it? If it hasn't happened yet, there's no reason to believe that the creation of the Big Ten or the NCHC "superconference" is going to foment it.

Unless it does.

How, you ask? Well, it could well come down to the matter of automatic bids to the NCAA tournament. Out west, you've got a six-team Big Ten and a (currently) six-team NCHC. Rumor has it that the WCHA will be taking on a sixth team relatively shortly, and the possibility exists that the CCHA will bring in enough teams to return to six as well. Those conferences would all get autobids, moving the west from two autobids to a possible four (and at least three), each dedicated to a relatively small number of teams.

Meanwhile, the ECAC is limited to one autobid for 12 teams. Would the Ivies, as unified as six teams could possibly be, consider breaking down the conference in order to snag a guaranteed autobid for themselves? Perhaps - but it's worth noting that Ivies have won the ECAC championship, and therefore the autobid, in nine of the last ten seasons. For them, it could be a solution without a problem.

Clarkson, RPI, St. Lawrence and Union: Collectively, the Liberty League teams, although RIT joins the D-III league in the next academic year. These schools are fairly interconnected with one another through their common bond as small schools (athletically) and the first three are charter members of the ECAC. It seems as though none of these schools will be seeking to leave the conference in order to start their own new thing despite one of the minor, unsubstantiated realignment rumors that have floated surrounding a D-I Liberty League conference with RIT and an unnamed sixth team. They've got no reason to leave the security of the ECAC for the instability of a smaller league with no (or only one) Division I schools.

Unless they do.

We did just mention the 9 Ivy champions in 10 years bit, which cuts two ways - one, it could be seen as an impediment to the national tournament, since there is one autobid for 12 members, or it could be seen as the Ivies strengthening their shot at an at-large, since each of these four schools has now earned an at-large NCAA bid in the last five seasons. If the Ivies are more powerful right now, it would make choosing to breakaway from them a risky proposition.

Colgate and Quinnipiac: The same goes for the two non-Ivy, non-D-III schools. Colgate is just fine where they are, given that Holy Cross and Army are the only two fellow Patriot League schools playing hockey, and the same holds true for Quinnipiac with Robert Morris and Sacred Heart the only NEC cohorts (say! All six together for the Northeast Patriot... no, that's not even funny as a joke). They could, of course, be part of a six (or seven) team league with the Liberty League squads.

Expansion?

As we said at the very beginning of Tsunami Watch, it is worth throwing out some of the preconceptions about how conferences come together - and the NCHC has already done that, throwing out some of the popular notions that schools will frequently consider the well-being of other programs before making decisions. In that same way, the preconception that the ECAC is "full" at 12 teams could potentially be up for being scrapped as well.

RIT: If the ECAC reopens for expansion, the Tigers will be first in line. As mentioned in the Atlantic Hockey examination, RIT covets a spot in the ECAC, which would offer them the best balance of competitiveness (given their lack of athletic scholarships, which is the same position reigning regular season champs Union are in) and academic profile. If expansion happens under any possible circumstance, there aren't too many scenarios out there where RIT would get left behind, because the ECAC doesn't have much of a reason not to embrace the Tigers if given the opportunity.

Holy Cross, Mercyhurst and Niagara: These programs have to get mentioned next if only because they've tried to join the ECAC in the past. Niagara, for many of the same reasons they could be attractive to the CCHA, may be attractive to the ECAC, especially as a potential travel partner for RIT. The Crusaders and Lakers, as mentioned in the AHA profile, would continue to have some hurdles to clear, although Mercyhurst's powerful women's team could be a wildcard to the ECAC, which has that consideration that the CCHA would not. In the same vein, Holy Cross (in addition to needing new digs) would need to commit their women's team to Division I, which they still haven't done.

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Moving on to Hockey East. The only power conference untouched by the current shakeup, the strongest eastern league nonetheless has had at least a little bit of intrigue, in part due to the rumored potential expansion that could be coming down the line.

Boston College and Boston University: According to the Eagle Tribune's Mike McMahon, the schools that would eventually call themselves the NCHC offered BC and BU the opportunity to join the new "superconference." They declined that opportunity. What does that mean? Well, for starters, it means Hockey East's solidarity is practically unquestioned right now, but it also means BC and BU are unlikely to go anywhere. Where would they go? There'd be no real ability to start an analogous eastern superconference, since Hockey East is so clearly established as the top conference in the east. The only real option would be to kick other Hockey East teams to the curb in an even more baldfaced manner than the NCHC largely did to the WCHA.

Maine, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Providence, UMass, and Vermont: The fact that we can basically lump much of the league together in one group speaks volumes about the relative stability of Hockey East. None of these schools, the other D-I institutions of the league, will be looking to go anywhere anytime soon either.

Merrimack and UMass-Lowell: Hockey East's only two non D-I schools. They get split off only because with the rise of the NCHC, they are really two of the only Division II schools "playing up" that are in a secure position looking into the future, with Minnesota-Duluth the only other one that can honestly make that claim. It's highly, highly unlikely that the D-II uncertainty will affect these teams, however. Even in the doomsday scenario where multiple D-II schools drop down (perhaps even enough to motivate a return of the D-II championship), the Warriors and River Hawks are very secure where they are - a turn of the tables from just a few scant years ago where both schools had some questions about their futures floating about.

Expansion?

We've already talked about why UConn isn't coming to Hockey East, but there are teams out there that need to be discussed.

Notre Dame: The most obvious one. With Miami off to the superconference, there's no way the Irish can stay in the CCHA - it was highly unlikely before, and basically impossible now. With the gutting of the WCHA, that conference is now also highly unlikely. They do have a standing invite to the superconference, and Hockey East, it is now known, has also basically extended an invite as well. Which will it be? And for the purpose of this discussion, why would the Irish go to Hockey East?

Hockey East presents Notre Dame with the opportunity to be part of an established power conference, and puts their team more in the eastward-looking view that most of their athletic programs enjoy playing in the Big East (though Providence and UConn are the only Big East teams with a hockey program). It places the Irish in the same conference as Boston College, an institutional and traditional rival as the two most prominent Catholic schools in the United States.

The move would be a bit radical for Hockey East to be sure, given the present relatively compact nature of the conference (with Maine a bit of an outlier), but it would be a move that could potentially secure Hockey East's position against the two new upstart leagues in terms of power... if Notre Dame decides their future lies there.

Quinnipiac: If the Irish join Hockey East, the conference is likely (though not certain) to seek a 12th team to round out what would probably be an even schedule, possibly helping the league alleviate its notorious current issue of a small number of available non-conference games, and upon first glance, the Bobcats could be an attractive team. They have an almost brand spanking new facility. They're in New England. They're close to the largely untapped New York City market. They've pretty much been on the rise for the last decade plus since moving to Division I (though they're starting to plateau a bit). The women's team is improving steadily. What they lack is depth in terms of their program's history, alumni base, and fan interest outside of campus, but if Quinnipiac applied to Hockey East (and they almost certainly would), they wouldn't be turned down out of hand.

Holy Cross: Geographically, the Crusaders fit right into Hockey East's wheel well in Worcester, practically surrounded on all sides by other HEA schools. Institutionally, they'd be a great fit with Boston College (a fellow Jesuit school with which a traditional rivalry exists), not to mention Catholic schools in Providence and Merrimack, to which Notre Dame would be added to the mix as well. They have a leg up on UConn in that A) they at least have some hockey history, providing one of the bigger upsets ever in the NCAA tournament when they beat Minnesota in 2006 and B) have some displayed desire to offer more scholarships and improve the position of the program. However, they do have two of UConn's problems - a rink that's far too small and not enough community support. The latter could probably be handled if the team were to join Hockey East, but a facility is lacking. They could move to Worcester's DCU Center, but they'd never be able to fill the lower bowl, plus they'd have to share with the Worcester Sharks. Their women's team still plays in Division III, which is another problem.

RPI: Ohh no. We're not discussing this here. We can't. The concept of RPI leaving the ECAC and going to Hockey East is... too much to briefly discuss in a paragraph or two at Without a Peer. No, this is absolutely getting its own post. Suffice it to say for now that... the possibility exists, and could be very real.

Tease? Oh, yes. Ohhhhhh yes.

Tsunami Watch: Atlantic Hockey

Trying to step around the nuclear bomb that is the now confirmed "superconference" in the west, we now cast our gaze to the east (or mostly east, hello there Air Force). The most intriguing conference on our end of the map is Atlantic Hockey - not entirely because of the Big Ten, mind you, although the ripple effect of the tsunami could well have its own effect on the AHA.

One of the subplots to the suspected conference carousel comes straight out of the nation's

weakest overall conference. In May, the league voted on a proposal to increase the number of allowed athletic scholarships from 12 to 13 (all other conferences allow 18). A supermajority was needed to pass the measure, it failed by one, with 7 in favor and 5 against. According to College Hockey News, a number of those teams voting in favor of increasing scholarships may well be interested in increasing significantly.

The "superconference" may sack the possibility of some of these teams leaving for greener pastures - because there may not really be any green pastures available. The WCHA is too far out for any of these schools (save Air Force), while the CCHA's remnants may seek to jump aboard with the WCHA rather than admit western AHA teams. But the scholarship vote pretty clearly shows that like those other two leagues, there are teams in Atlantic Hockey that have different visions of the future, and that could well have ramifications down the road.

Niagara and Robert Morris: The CHA refugees. They're using the cost-contained Atlantic Hockey as a virtual lifeboat, though they both would rather be able to give out a full 18 scholarships as they had before. That's why both, before the superconference arose, were almost certainly eyeing the depleted CCHA as a possible option. Depending on what the remaining CCHA teams decide to do, these schools could certainly bring a bit more stability. Both are Division I programs and both certainly have their eyes on improving their position in the college hockey world.

Niagara has flirted with the CCHA practically since the establishment of their program, but will they still be interested minus the geographic connection that Michigan, Ohio State, and Miami could have offered? Spurned for years, the tables appear to have turned significantly. They do have trump cards, however - the media markets of Buffalo and Pittsburgh, both with solid hockey bonafides.

RMU has a small facility that they don't sell out every night, but they do at least have a displayed commitment to hockey that would be attractive to the CCHA.

Mercyhurst and Holy Cross: Two Atlantic Hockey schools that, in the past, have been known to harbor plans for bigger and better things, as both were applicants to the ECAC in the mid-2000s after Vermont left the conference and created an opening. Mercyhurst's western location may make them another attractive addition to the CCHA, but not nearly as much as Niagara or RMU since they're a Division II school with only fair facilities.

Holy Cross, meanwhile, has other issues that it needs to wrestle with before they can go anywhere - they may have even been one of the teams that voted against the scholarship increase, but no real improvement has been done on their facilities since they were a major stumbling block to their hoped for accession to the ECAC, either.

RIT: The Tigers are in an interesting position. A D-III school that moved to D-I after the Prop 65-1 grandfather rule that RPI fans know so well, they can't offer athletic scholarships, and yet they've been one of the most dominant teams in Atlantic Hockey since their move to D-I. This is in part because of the institutional support and commitment to hockey, and in part because Wayne Wilson has proven to be an outstanding recruiter.

In all likelihood, they voted to increase scholarships despite their inability to offer them. Why? Because they're clearly in need of a bigger challenge - they have been in Atlantic Hockey for five seasons and have claimed four regular season crowns. Despite that, they've only reached the NCAA tournament once because they still have to win the AHA tournament to play on, and one bad night can end your chances of winning that tournament.

It's fairly obvious that RIT would love to join the ECAC, but right now, there's really not much room for them unless the conference decides to ditch the travel partner system and/or bring two new teams into the mix. A minor rumor floated that RIT, a newly minted member of the D-III Liberty League, would be a member of a D-I hockey version of the Liberty League with the other hockey-playing members (RPI, Union, Clarkson, and St. Lawrence) and Colgate, but this makes zero sense for anyone but RIT, especially for Colgate but certainly for RPI and the other three as well.

Could RIT be interested in the CCHA instead? Maybe. It would be a step up, especially if they go with Niagara and RMU to bring stability, and the CCHA, if they don't merge with the WCHA, is going to be interested in bringing in anyone they can. We'll have to wait and see with the Tigers.

Canisius: The Griffins are stuck in neutral, although they do have designs on improving their station. First and foremost, however, they need a new building, which has been the main stumbling block for years as they've been forced to play second fiddle to D-III Buffalo State at the Bengals' home rink on the Buff State campus. If you don't even have your own place, you're not going anywhere, but beyond that the program is making strides in recruiting and would love to be able to offer additional scholarships to assist in making those strides. But until they've got a place of their own and can boost attendance at that place, they're not going to be leaving Atlantic Hockey.

UConn: The Huskies are frequently brought up as the next Hockey East program for two reasons - first and foremost, they're a New England state school, which puts them along the same lines as UVM, UNH, Maine, and UMass. Second, their women's team plays in Hockey East. But neither of these is really sufficient for UConn to join. Why? Well, it's very simple.

The women's team playing in Hockey East is a matter of convenience for both the school and the league, given that the UMass schools and Merrimack don't have women's hockey teams and, at the time UConn joined, UVM was in the ECAC and BU didn't have a varsity team. They were necessary as the sixth team so the conference could have an automatic bid, and Atlantic Hockey didn't (and still doesn't) have a women's league to boot.

As for the men's team, they have a small building that they're lucky to fill halfway, have no real history, and practically no institutional support as partially evidenced by their lack of athletic scholarships. This is not attractive to Hockey East. UConn's not going anywhere.

Air Force and Army: The service academies. Technically, neither of these schools offer scholarships, since cadets are essentially getting a free education in return for expected military service after graduation. Air Force, however, may have been in the same position as RIT as far as being interested in more scholarships for Atlantic Hockey if only to boost their prospects in a league they've dominated since their arrival.

Army is satisfied with where they are, for a lot of the reasons we discussed in last week's edition of "Know Your Enemy." They're finally in a place where they can compete in Division I and have a shot at playing in the national tournament if they can succeed in March. More scholarships would only make things harder for them.

Air Force, on the other hand, would love to be in a position where they could possibly reach the national tournament without being required to win the AHA championship. To determine the Falcons' aims, you have to figure out just what's important to them. After all, they're a geographical anomaly in Atlantic Hockey, being that they're in Colorado and the next farthest west team is in Pennsylvania. They did set off the last, much smaller realignment when they left College Hockey America. The move made sense in two ways - it paired them with Army, a natural rival, and ensured that they'd have a confirmed spot outside of the always tenuous CHA.

But does the link with Army override all? If not, the Falcons could be taking a serious look at the new look WCHA, which won't be anywhere near as strong as it used to be and therefore could be more attractive to Air Force, boosting their place in the college hockey world and requiring a lot fewer cross-country trips to play games in front of 100 to 900 people.

American International, Bentley, and Sacred Heart: Look, uh... they're not going anywhere anytime soon. That's the blunt of it for three teams generally struggling to amount to much even in the AHA as it currently is. Bentley and Sacred Heart, to their credit, at least seem to try to be competitive within the conference as it is, but at they end of the day they have a lot of UConn's problems without the big name to go with it. AIC... well, you'll read more on AIC on Wednesday.

Tsunami Watch: Rise of the Superconference?

We interrupt our look around the nation Tsunami Watch to bring you this important update. It appears the west may just be getting a bit wilder.

Multiple sources are now reporting that a number of teams from the WCHA and CCHA, seemingly led by the University of North Dakota, are in advanced talks to create what will essentially be a second breakaway conference from those leagues following the lead of the Big Ten. The schools that have been named as a party to those talks are UND, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Colorado College, Nebraska-Omaha, Notre Dame, Miami, and Western Michigan.

That list, by and large, comprises the heavy hitters of both of those leagues, as we mentioned in our previous editions of Tsunami Watch. If such a league were to form, it would surely mean the death knell for both the WCHA and the CCHA. There would be five teams remaining in both leagues.

When news first broke about this new "superconference" earlier this week, one of the theories was that it was a power play by some of the bigger schools of the WCHA to force the conference to go hard for Notre Dame and Miami. It now appears to have been somewhat more than just a power play.

What does this mean for college hockey? In the west, it almost certainly means a stratification of the sport - and potentially, the loss of some programs. The remaining schools of the WCHA and CCHA are going to have no practical alternative than to band together for survival, and the result is not pretty:

Alaska

Alaska-Anchorage

Bemidji State

Bowling Green

Ferris State

Lake Superior State

Michigan Tech

Minnesota State

Northern Michigan

St. Cloud State

There's all of ONE Division I school in that conference, and it's a program that has been struggling mightily of late. There are a lot of problems with this group, not the least of which that the Alaskan schools have been forced together, and we've already underlined why that is a problem not just for those schools but for the rest of any conference that would include both.

But even further than that, this is a conference that is going to be hurting for attention against the Big Ten and the so-called "superconference." It's going to be the "have nots" in college hockey, a league that won't even be able to boast the overall academic profile of the ECAC, cast aside by the powers on the Island of Misfit Toys.

Unfortunately, you can't control what schools and programs are going to do when it comes to self-interest.

Consider Bemidji State, which spent $35 million on a brand new facility in the hope of joining the WCHA, a dream they realized last season but could now be completely dashed. Their sister school, St. Cloud State, which has plans for a $30 million renovation to their facility. Lake Superior State, home of three national championships and a daunting dynasty in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Michigan Tech, a school with three national championships of its own and a rabid fanbase undeterred by a bevy of disappointing seasons in recent times.

These schools are not just the refuse of college hockey. They are vibrant, integral parts of the landscape, vivid reminders that college hockey is a world where Bemidji State can take on Notre Dame... and win.

SCSU alum Mike Doyle points out that a superconference would likely put five Minnesota schools playing in three different conferences. That's a further stratification of the State of Hockey itself, where the Gophers were already top dog, but now it's almost a confirmation that the rest of the state doesn't matter. The charm of schools large and small playing on a somewhat even keel may be coming to an end, and if you're a fan of a Division II or Division III school, that has to be at least somewhat troubling.

That's 11 schools - don't forget about Alabama-Huntsville - that, as our friend Bruce Ciskie tweeted yesterday, have a decision to make about how important hockey is to them. 10 of those schools are D-II institutions.

There are underlying concerns here, mostly involving the CCHA components of this affair. Notre Dame, reportedly, is not yet committed to this arrangement, and they still hold some pretty solid weight, possibly weighing an invite from Hockey East. If they were to decide on that route, what exactly makes this superconference so eminently superior to a WCHA that brought Miami and Western Michigan (or another CCHA school) on board? Is UND then merely hot to throw smaller schools under the bus?

News has also come down that Western Michigan head coach Jeff Blashill may become an assistant coach for the Detroit Red Wings. If that happens, where does that leave the Broncos, a program that this time last year had some serious questions floating about how committed the school was to success?

It's hard to blame all of the schools potentially involved in this affair, however. If this conference is created, every single member of the WCHA and CCHA are going to want a place at the table, and that's absolutely understandable. Unfortunately, there aren't enough chairs for everyone, and the end result could be nothing short of disaster - and a net regression for college hockey, especially if some schools decide that they're not interested in competing for scraps.

Consider the state of the NCAA tournament. When Penn State begins play in 2012, there will be 59 Division I programs. With a 16 team tournament, that means 27.1% of programs get to play for the national championship every year, up from 27.6% now. That's better than 1 in 4. Compare that to basketball - only 19.7% of men's teams reach the big dance every year. Is the NCAA going to allow the tournament to remain at 16 teams if more programs fade away?

Just something to mull about as the superconference rumors fly.