New World Order

We are in the final season of the fourth iteration of the conference system in college hockey. Next year, things are going to look mighty different.

Fourth, you ask? What were the other three? Well, here they are, roughly.

1961 - 1981: The ECAC and the WCHA rule the roost, though the latter is generally stronger. Every national championship during this time period was won by a team from one of these conferences, through to 1983. The CCHA begins as a relatively minor conference midway through this period.

1981 - 1985: Still largely a period of dominance between the ECAC and the WCHA, but the CCHA's addition of Michigan and Michigan State shifts the balance a bit away from the WCHA.

1985 - 2000: The Hockey East split leads to a shift of power between the new conference, the WCHA, and the CCHA, with the ECAC in slow decline, especially after the early 1990s.

2000 - 2013: The era of the "Big Three," as the ECAC moves out of a position of power to become the lone mid-major, while the MAAC/AHA comes to being as the lone minor conference.

2013 - ???: The Big Ten tsunami rearranges the college hockey landscape as never before.

What could we be looking at in this fifth iteration of conference paradigm in college hockey?

Well, now that every team has lost a game this season, let's look at the current KRACH ratings to see where the new conference structure would stand if it were theoretically in place today - not a perfect comparison, since conference schedules will shift, but this is what it looks like.

Hockey East - 1, 2, 6, 7, 14, 19, 26, 34, 43, 44, 45, 52
NCHC - 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 18, 20, 39
ECAC - 4, 5, 8, 13, 16, 17, 21, 23, 31, 32, 33, 46
Big Ten - 12, 27, 37, 42, 49, 54
WCHA - 24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 38, 50
Atlantic Hockey - 22, 40, 41, 47, 48, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 59
Independents - 58

Look at the NCHC - that's a holy cow stat right there. Seven of its eight teams are currently among the 20 best in the nation, and the eighth (Minnesota-Duluth) won a national championship two years ago. Think that might be a power conference?

The Big Ten is having a shockingly bad season in it's year before birth (to wit - independent Penn State is ranked ahead of 1-7-2 Wisconsin, and Michigan ain't that far ahead of them), but this season is likely the exception and not the rule, considering that four of the six teams in the conference are regulars in the national tournament under the current structure.

Also, no one can deny Hockey East's excellent standing, especially with Notre Dame about to join the fold. Three of its usual "Big Four" are off to a great start (Maine... not so much), although the biggest problem Hockey East faces is its gap between haves and have nots. Providence's decent start has them somewhere in the middle (26th), but besides the Friars there's a big gap between UMass-Lowell (19th) and Merrimack (34th). Still, in recent seasons we've seen the Warriors competitive and the River Hawks not so competitive. They'll be a strong conference.

Atlantic Hockey, with all but two of its teams outside the top 2/3 of the nation, will continue their current role of providing their tournament winner an automatic bid and nothing more. They are still a cost-containment league and until that changes, they are where they are.

That leaves the fate of the original two up for ponderance... the ECAC and the WCHA.

First, the ECAC. The only changes our league needs to worry about is how the shifting paradigms affect recruiting. The last shift certainly affected things for the worse, but with five teams offering a full complement of scholarships and the league as a whole attractive for the educational side, there's only so far the ECAC will slide. It's probably already reached the bottom, really.

But the new WCHA could be in an almost worse situation than the ECAC, and quickly. A mashup of the leftovers between the CCHA and current WCHA after the Big Ten and NCHC tore away basically all of their top programs, it's hard to peg an absolute best program from this new group of nine. By KRACH, right now, it's Alaska followed by Ferris State. You'd almost have to call the Bulldogs early favorites.

The currently comprised ECAC has won only five national championships, among only three of its members, and none since 1989 (Harvard). The new WCHA will have eight, among four members, but none since 1994 (Lake Superior State). That's not overly dissimilar.

There's one other way to look at which conference has the most power teams - NCAA bids. The conferences have averaged the following total bids per season in the last 10 years (since the tournament was expanded).

WCHA - 4.4 mean, 4/5 median, 5 mode (High 6 - 2008; Low 3 - 2007 and 2009)
CCHA - 3.9 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2004 and 2012, Low 3 - 2003)
Hockey East - 3.6 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2007; Low 2 - 2008)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)

Now apply the total bids per season to the new conferences.

NCHC - 4.2 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 7 - 2011; Low 3 - 2003 and 2005)
Hockey East - 4.1 mean (High 6 - 2007; Low 3 - 2008 and 2010)
Big Ten - 3.1 mean, 3 median, 3/4 mode (High 5 - 2004; Low 1 - 2011)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)
WCHA - 0.9 mean, 1 median, 0/1 mode (High 3 - 2010; Low 0 - 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011)

That's astounding to see. In the new WCHA, there were four different years in the last ten that none of the teams made the tournament. In fact, between 2004 and 2009 (six consecutive years), there wasn't a single team that will play in the WCHA next year that earned an at-large bid - Bemidji State, on three occasions in that span, won the CHA's automatic bid.

What does that mean? Well, for starters, it means the WCHA is dropping off a long ways prestige-wise. But a cursory look at the numbers tells us that, at least at first, hockey's new world order is still going to consist of the "Big Three," but two of those will be brand new conferences. The ECAC will still be a mid-major, in all likelihood.

The WCHA, however, looks like it's going to have to fight - and hard - to be mid-major level. It essentially ended up as the Island of Misfit Toys after realignment, and although its autobid now represents a big chance for teams that frequently don't get to compete for either the WCHA or CCHA autobid most years in the past, the new league may be hard-pressed to pick up an at-large bid even with the regularity of the ECAC, which almost always gets one and not unfrequently snags a second.

The NCHC, once it gets assembled, will almost certainly never get 7 bids as it did in 2011 (that would be almost the entire league, and someone has to finish in last), but the mean totals could average out about right. That would likely mean, more often than not, the WCHA will probably have to settle for its autobid, but at least they'll probably grab an extra bid every once in a while, which pegs them above Atlantic Hockey. But it looks like a quick drop from the top for college hockey's oldest conference, almost certainly quicker than the ECAC's fall from grace. Their motto is "just got tougher," put in place after Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha joined the fold. They can keep it next year, but it'll have a different meaning.

ECAC: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The final piece of the puzzle in the upcoming conference scramble appears to be falling into place with reports last week of Hockey East and UConn inching closer together. Reports are that the Huskies are likely to join Hockey East in 2014-15, one season after what we referred to last offseason as "the tsunami" strikes college hockey's shores, irreparably changing the landscape as we know it.

With Hockey East now apparently destined for the 12 teams most everyone expected they'd finish with, there's only one question remaining - the long-term fate of Alabama-Huntsville. Given a reprieve by the school in December when the school reversed its much-maligned decision to scuttle the program, the Chargers will enter their third season without a conference this October and will still require a place to call home in order to secure their long-term existence.

With UConn set to depart Atlantic Hockey, that leaves the ECAC as the only conference to be completely untouched by "the tsunami." 12 teams when the process started, same 12 teams when it concludes.

Some, especially the powers that be in Albany, would call that a pretty good outcome. Stability is a good thing, as the schools which scrambled to find a home as the CHA and CCHA each disintegrated will tell you.

But how stable is the ECAC, really, and given the current state of the college hockey world, how much benefit is there for teams in the stable ECAC? We've long said that the league no longer qualifies as a "major conference" (at least since the very late 1990s) and that is even more likely to be true once the landscape changes in favor of the new big three: Hockey East, the NCHC, and the Big Ten. With an additional new "mid-major" likely to develop from the new WCHA and basically all of the big power schools concentrated in the Big Three, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the ECAC's decline to accelerate.

What could change things? There are two potential events on the horizon that could very well help tip the apple cart - neither are sure to happen, but neither would be a shock to the system, either.

1) The Ivy League. As we've said before, the Ivy six represent a veritable Sword of Damocles hanging over the integrity of the conference, and the sword has hung for decades, especially the last three following the Hockey East split. The Ivy League competes as its own entity in... pretty much every sport known to man. Men's and women's hockey is a very notable exception.

What would the Ivies gain from a split? They would stand to gain quite a lot, as Harvard's Brendan Roche (WHRB play-by-play announcer and all-around good guy) pointed out in a post last year while discussing the possibility of the ECAC losing RPI or Quinnipiac to Hockey East. First and foremost could well be scheduling: the Ivy League is limited to 29 regular-season games a year, and with 22 of those games earmarked for ECAC contests, that leaves them with only 7 non-conference games to play around with - just five for Harvard, which plays two of its NC games in the Beanpot every year. A six-team league could feature 4 games a season with league teams (all better draws than the non-Ivies currently are), and open two more non-conference opportunities.

Most of Roche's other points are very well taken. It makes sense for them from a marketing standpoint. With the Big Ten coming into being next year, it would give them the ability to showcase an all-sports brand, something that could come in handy when competing with the Big Ten, the NCHC, and Hockey East for talent. They'd also gain their own autobid to the NCAA tournament, though this is a bit of a wash with 9 of the last 11 ECAC autobids going to Ivy teams (Clarkson in 2007 and Union in 2012 the exceptions).

There's nothing the six non-Ivies can do about this, not anymore. None of them would fit into the west-centric NCHC (not that the league would want them if they tried) or WCHA, Hockey East is closed, and the only way out is to a lower league in Atlantic Hockey. The only reasonable option if an Ivy exit happens would be to reconstitute with programs from Atlantic Hockey that are seeking to move up in the world. We're talking about RIT, Niagara, Robert Morris, Holy Cross, and the like.

Of course, the non-Ivies could proactively split, but it's the same scenario. Compare the Ivies to the teams mentioned. With no disrespect intended to those teams (which are honestly trying to boost their competition level), but it's a step down for the ECAC non-Ivies as much as it's a step up for those teams. The only silver lining in all of this seems to be the autobid, but this would in all eventuality be a conference with only marginally better chances of attracting at-large bids than Atlantic Hockey currently does. The ECAC, at the very least, typically draws at least one at-large bid every year, giving some incentive for the non-Ivies to hold onto the marriage as long as the Ivies are still OK with it.

2) Notre Dame and the Big Ten. This is something that has been discussed, literally, for almost a century, since the first overtures between the parties were made in 1926. While the first possibility revolves entirely around hockey, this one revolves almost entirely upon football, with ripples that could now be felt in the hockey world, given the recent changes to the landscape.

Notre Dame's independence in football is storied - it gives their historic program the opportunity to set their entire schedule, and allows them to negotiate their own national television contract (with NBC) with an exclusivity that helps keep their brand front and center. But Notre Dame football isn't what it was for decade after decade of the 20th century. They haven't won a national championship since 1988 and haven't played for one since 1991. No Heisman Trophy winners since 1987. In the 14 seasons of the BCS, they've played in a BCS bowl only three times, losing all three. They haven't finished the season in the Top 25 of the national rankings since 2006 and only four times since 2000.

What's more, Big Ten football is beginning to eclipse Notre Dame in drawing power and revenues, especially with its Big Ten network. Big Ten schools are now pulling in more TV revenue individually than Notre Dame and their exclusive contract, and as the Irish continue to struggle to be nationally relevant on the gridiron, that inequity may only increase as the years progress.

What does this have to do with hockey, you ask? Well, Notre Dame has long seemed a perfect fit for the Big Ten, and if the economics of it all push the Irish to move football (and everything else) to the Big Ten, it'll take hockey right along with it.

That would create a dilemma for Hockey East. Now back to 11 teams and missing a star attraction, what course of action do BU and BC take? Both reportedly spurned NCHC bids previously, thought in large part to be because of Notre Dame's potential addition to Hockey East. Does that suddenly become an option for those teams? Either way, you're then looking at a 9 or 11 team Hockey East, with openings once again.

These scenarios illustrate the tricky spot the ECAC finds itself in, both as an integral unit and as two different halves. For the non-Ivy League teams especially, there could be a glass ceiling forming just as Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, and Union were proving that the Division II and III schools still had room to succeed at the highest levels.

Tsunami Watch: The Flood Recedes

This is our final edition of Tsunami Watch. Why? Because the radical changes in the college hockey world caused by the advent of varsity hockey at Penn State are over.

But, you say, the most exciting part of all could be just around the corner for RPI! Perhaps. But it will be a secondary reaction if it happens.

Here is where we currently stand for 2013-14.

* There will essentially be one new conference: the Big Ten. Thus, at the end of the day, we're back to six conferences, where we were when the CHA was still around.

* The CCHA membership will disperse into four of those six conferences - Notre Dame to Hockey East, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State to the Big Ten, Miami and Western Michigan to the NCHC, and the balance to the WCHA.

* The WCHA, while it will continue to exist, will look radically different, with three less teams than they currently stand and, really, no programs that would be considered power programs. We could be talking about a WCHA that moves to the level of the ECAC.

* The only thing left to shake out will be autobids, which may not be back to six until 2015-16 under the rules. NCAA regulations say six teams of any league must have been playing together for two full seasons before they can have the autobid conferred upon them. That would seem to leave out the Big Ten off the bat since the rule applies to specific sports, but it could also leave the NCHC and the WCHA high and dry.

The NCHC might have the excuse that six of their teams have been playing together in the WCHA. The new-look WCHA, however, has only 4 teams that have played together in the previous incarnation of the league, and only 5 that played together in the CCHA.

That leaves us with four scenarios.

1) The WCHA, as the previously existing league, gets an autobid, while the NCHC has to wait two years.

2) The NCHC, as the league with six previously existing league members, gets an autobid, while the WCHA has to do without for a couple of seasons.

3) Both leagues get an autobid.

4) Neither league gets an autobid.

And, of course, the Big Ten could somehow manage to get a waiver for a supposedly unwaiverable rule.

Anyway, here's what the college hockey landscape looks like after the tsunami. The only potential secondary changes are a 12th team for Hockey East and, if that team comes from the ECAC, a move by an Atlantic Hockey team into the ECAC. Any further discussions by the discontented programs of Atlantic Hockey at a new conference would be on its own track.

Big Ten

Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

NCHC

Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota, St. Cloud State and Western Michigan.

WCHA

Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Ferris State, Lake Superior State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State and Northern Michigan.

Hockey East

Boston College, Boston University, Maine, Merrimack, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Providence, UMass, UMass-Lowell and Vermont.

ECAC & Atlantic Hockey

Unchanged

Independents

Alabama-Huntsville

Recently discussed potential new programs

Buffalo and MSU-Moorhead

Tsunami Watch: Double Dipping

Just when you thought the conference carousel might be slowing down, something happens and it kicks right back into full gear once more.

Without much notice, it was announced yesterday that the NCHC would offer membership to Western Michigan and St. Cloud State. The former wasn't much of a surprise, as the Broncos had an offer on the table already, but the latter was... surprising to say the least. Almost as surprising, the Huskies quickly accepted, going against statements the school had made a couple of months ago.

Why the turn around? Well, for one, everyone's still waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do. In the meantime, the NCHC had only six teams: Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Nebraska-Omaha. Those are some high powered programs, and one of them has to come in last. Thus, thanks to the NCAA's rule that no team with a sub-.500 record can earn an at-large bid to the national tournament, the league would probably restricted to three or, at a maximum, four bids a year. Thus, the need to expand, and in a hurry.

So where does that leave us? Well, let's break it down.

Western Michigan: At the end of the day, this one's not too surprising, especially once St. Cloud was given an offer as well. WMU, through their actions over the last year, have proven that they are going to give 110% to their hockey program, and their athletic director has a stated goal for the program of a national championship. The huge raise they gave Jeff Blashill before the Red Wings came calling and the hiring of NHL coach Andy Murray is plenty to indicate an up and coming program, and the NCHC, in the long run, is probably the best place for the program given those goals.

St. Cloud State: This one's a little more surprising and there's already been a lot of debate in St. Cloud as to whether this was the right move to make. First off, when the NCHC was first announced, SCSU was adamant that they wanted nothing to do with the league and that they planned to take a leading role in the new WCHA. Secondly, when the "new" WCHA started to congeal, most observes had the Huskies pegged as one of the programs that could potentially dominate the conference on a regular basis, leading to more frequent NCAA appearances and, in turn, better shots at the Frozen Four and the national title.

Now, SCSU will have to fight with the big dogs of the NCHC - not that they haven't tangled with most of the teams in the league before, but there were also some minnows to fall back on in the WCHA. They won't have that in the NCHC. They also suddenly look like one of the villains just months after promising to be a hero for the WCHA. This move will help the school with their visibility, but they may find it a tougher row to hoe in the long run.

It's also worth noting that with this move, St. Cloud State turns its back on its MnSCU brethren in Bemidji and Mankato, something that definitely won't sit well with those programs. The loss of St. Cloud State takes an already weakening conference and makes it decidedly more weak.

Notre Dame: Once again, the Fighting Irish dither while the rest of the hockey world moves in anticipation of what they may or may not do. The options are still mostly the same as we've gone over many times before - NCHC, Hockey East, or independence - but in the much larger picture (not something hockey fans are used to examining), there may be a fourth option opening.

If you've been paying attention to the NCAA as a whole lately, you've seen the carousel going on at the highest levels as well, with teams changing conferences left and right. The Big East especially seems to be in serious danger of either fracturing outright or what we should probably call WCHA-ization in that they won't be much of a major conference anymore by the time the wheel stops spinning. The problem here is that while Notre Dame is famously independent in football, they're a member of the Big East in everything else. If the Big East implodes, Notre Dame will need a new home, and the rumor that will never die always revolves around the Big Ten. So that route may yet be open.

By the way, there's even talk of these BCS superconferences breaking from the NCAA altogether - and that would make some serious waves in college hockey as well since you're talking the Big Ten plus Boston College and Notre Dame among those. Topic for another day, perhaps, but... that would make this tsunami look like a ripple in a kiddie pool.

Bowling Green: The only other CCHA program without a dance partner, the Falcons appear to be out of options other than the still-pending WCHA invitation. If the NCHC had any interest in BGSU, they probably would have already sent them an invite, and since league members are already talking about how eight teams is fine and a ninth would have to bring a lot to the table (code for Notre Dame), BGSU might as well just take the WCHA invite while they have it.

Alabama-Huntsville: This new development actually opens the door a little bit for the Chargers as it pertains to the WCHA. Adding BGSU would leave the WCHA in the same place they were before this new development: nine teams. UAH could potentially round that back off to ten... if they can find a way to be palatable to a league that's already going to have to deal with having a pair of teams from Alaska in it, as we've already mentioned.

NCHC: Sitting pretty now that they've got a couple more teams to boost that at-large potential. The numbers and teams involved definitely make the conference better able to compete with the Big Ten head to head, which was the goal all along, though purists will point to its makeup - 6 WCHA teams and 2 CCHA teams - and call it a WCHA rehash, more polite than asking UAA, MTU, Mankato, and Bemidji to leave.

Big Ten: Of course, it's worth mentioning that the Big Ten, like the NCHC before yesterday's announcement, has only six members right now, and thus has the same issue with top programs potentially being forced out of the NCAAs due to their record. Unlike the NCHC, however, the Big Ten doesn't have any real prospects for expansion on the horizon (with the possible exception of the Notre Dame scenario above). The league has the stability that comes with direct affiliation with a major non-hockey conference, but it also has the limitation that it can't just throw invites to teams the way the NCHC just did. If the Big Ten expands, it's going to be with new varsity programs at Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska-Lincoln, Northwestern, or Purdue. That's it.

By the way, do you know who the sub-.500 at-large rule now benefits the most? WCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC teams.

RPI: Speaking of ECAC teams... we're still keeping an eye on the Notre Dame situation as it could pertain to new opportunities for RPI as we discussed earlier this summer. There are two things this NCHC expansion does to the metric we laid out for a potential RPI-Hockey East merger. First, it makes larger conferences more acceptable again. Second, it may increase the likelihood of Notre Dame choosing Hockey East, though they're certainly still more than welcome in the NCHC. As it is, there's little doubt that RPI is keeping a hawk an eagle eye on Notre Dame and weighing their own options. As always, stay tuned.

Tsunami Watch: Settling Point?

While we dry out a bit here in Irene-ravaged Troy (which was almost wholly to blame for this not running yesterday), here's the latest on the conference carousel that may soon be grinding to a halt.

Last week, the rumored WCHA-CCHA merger that had been discussed came to fruition as the WCHA offered membership to the remaining members of the CCHA with the exception of Notre Dame, which is still on the fence between the NCHC and Hockey East (and, apparently, becoming an independent).

Alaska, Lake Superior State, and Ferris State quickly accepted. Thus, the WCHA currently looks like this in 2013:

Alaska

Alaska-Anchorage

Bemidji State

Ferris State

Lake Superior State

Michigan Tech

Minnesota State

Northern Michigan

St. Cloud State

There's one thing that all of these schools have in common: Division II. That may be one of the things that is causing hesitation for the other two WCHA invitees, Bowling Green and Western Michigan, both of whom play at the highest level of Division I.

That leaves the following remaining question marks.

Notre Dame: Once again, it was something other than Notre Dame which moved first. We all thought the Irish would be the first to make a move... they're now almost certain to be last. Well... maybe next to last.

The options are still pretty much laid bare on the table. They're one of three remaining CCHA teams, so they can't reasonably stay there - not that that's ever been something that was realistic to begin with. They've got a standing offer from the NCHC, and Hockey East wouldn't say no if they wanted to join there.

If Notre Dame preferred to align themselves with the Big Ten, there's another option that the Irish could be considering - independence. Now, this wouldn't leave the Irish as independents in the style of Alabama-Huntsville, which will be in its second season of fully cobbling together a schedule this year, but rather, would be a situation where the Irish had long-term scheduling arrangements with other leagues, almost certainly with the Big Ten and probably with the NCHC as well. Such an arrangement would allow Notre Dame to keep playing the schools they're already used to playing without having to tether themselves to the Big Ten (which they've famously refused to do for decades) or a conference largely consisted of less prestigious institutions in the NCHC. They wouldn't be able to vie for an automatic bid and they'd have to find a way to keep playing into March (when the conferences are in tournament mode), but with the scheduling arrangements, a good Irish team with a solid record would probably be in contention for an NCAA bid without much problem.

Bowling Green: The Falcons are in an interesting position. They have the WCHA invite in their back pocket, but as a Division I school, they could arguably have the clout to join the NCHC, which would probably like to grow larger than just six schools - not to mention that BGSU's MAC cohorts, Miami, are already there. They're almost certainly going to wait to see what Notre Dame does before making a decision.

Western Michigan: The Broncos are, even more than BGSU, waiting to see what Notre Dame is going to do, in part because their proximity to South Bend could potentially allow them to latch on with the Irish as a travel partner in either the NCHC or Hockey East. It remains to be seen if the latter would be interested at all in WMU, though the former has apparently already extended an offer. Now they also have an offer from the WCHA. Options abound. It's amazing what one outstanding rebound season combined with a new commitment from administration will do for a program.

Atlantic Hockey: The WCHA-CCHA merger kills any chance that the four potential departures - Canisius, Mercyhurst, Niagara, and Robert Morris - had of being able to leave, since they had interest in playing in a revamped CCHA that will no longer exist. Those schools - and RIT as well - still have interest in improving their station in college hockey, however. What options do they have? Honestly, they don't have many places to turn. They could seek to join the ECAC, but even with the WCHA filling back up again, there's not much of a reason for the ECAC to expand (further diluting the pool for the automatic bid). For the time being, they're probably stuck where they are.

Alabama-Huntsville: The WCHA-CCHA merger is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Chargers... unless they can somehow petition the WCHA to become its 10th, 11th, or 12th member. The problem is, we're already talking about a league that is going to have to figure a way to include a pair of schools as isolated as Alaska and Alaska-Anchorage, bringing on another isolated team - and another D-II school - might be a dicey proposition.

Tsunami Watch: Western Redux

Now that everything we ever knew about college hockey is basically wrong, it's time to re-examine the moving parts out west again, since everything we discussed in previous editions of Tsunami Watch with regards to those teams has changed somewhat.

By the way, we've been talking like this is all going down right away... 2013 is when the actual shifting will all take place. So we've at least got two more seasons of relative calm as it pertains to the actual product on the ice.

Big Ten: The Big Ten is still pretty much hunky dory. There's not much out there that is going to change, given the league's status not just as an all-sports conference, but as one of the BCS conferences. It's worth mentioning, I suppose, that because of the Big Ten's status as a new hockey conference, the teams within will have to forego an automatic bid to the national tournament in 2014 and 2015 due to the NCAA's requirement that new conferences wait for two years before receiving an autobid.

NCHC: The six teams that currently make up the NCHC are all set - North Dakota, Denver, Colorado College, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, and Miami. Chances are pretty solid that they'd like to bring in at least one or two more teams, and Notre Dame is number one on that list, no question. More on them (and the other candidates) later. Like the Big Ten, the NCHC will have to forego an autobid until 2016, though it would be beyond shocking if the league's members didn't earn an at-large or two at minimum.

WCHA: The five remaining schools - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State, and St. Cloud State, appear to be rallying around the WCHA flag. There's no doubt that this league will be signifcantly weaker than the one we have known, and the MnSCU institutions (Bemidji, Mankato, and St. Cloud) are poised to take a leading role in the future of the conference.

Northern Michigan: They're on their way back to the WCHA, which they played in from 1984 through 1997. This reunites the Wildcats with their rivals from Michigan Tech, and it puts the WCHA back on somewhat more secure footing as NMU becomes the sixth team. If nothing else, the WCHA will continue to have their automatic bid come 2013 - the question now is whether the league can stay strong enough to be able to produce an at-large bid as well.

Notre Dame: We started out with Notre Dame as the pivot, but the NCHC clearly wasn't willing to wait to see what the Irish would do and took the second step themselves. Now we've got a third step with NMU moving to the WCHA and we could see other teams reacting to the Big Ten/NCHC combination, but no future step will be as big as where Notre Dame ends up. There are really only two options here - either the NCHC or Hockey East. The WCHA is no longer a viable option following the NCHC split since it doesn't offer the Irish anything they wouldn't get out of staying in the CCHA, which is now even less of an option as teams continue to bail. Word has it that the hockey staff prefers the NCHC, while the administration - i.e. the ones who will more than likely be making the final decision - are said to prefer Hockey East. What remains to be seen is whether the hockey people can influence the administration enough to get what they'd like.

We've already discussed the ins and outs of Notre Dame to Hockey East, what about the NCHC? From the administration's perspective, the NCHC is, like the CCHA following the Big Ten split, full of programs that may be hockey powers, but aren't among giants in other sports. The hockey people are certainly drawn to the regional hockey power aspect of the NCHC.

Western Michigan: Of the programs that make up "the rest," WMU actually seems to have the most options on the table. It's reported that they have a standing offer to join the NCHC. They could instead choose to follow NMU to the WCHA. They could hang with some of their CCHA conference mates and try to form the nucleus of a new CCHA. There are even rumors out there that WMU might be welcome in Hockey East if Notre Dame chooses that route, given the proximity of Kalamazoo to South Bend.

The last one is kind of a longshot - there's not much need for a team right near Notre Dame unless Hockey East decides to move to an ECAC-esque travel partner system, which doesn't make a great deal of sense. Right now, the most likely move appears to be a move into the NCHC to follow their Mid-American Conference brethren from Miami. The NCHC isn't doling out invitations on the cheap, and once WMU settles in with a new coach, they could well become the seventh team in the NCHC, though life would certainly not be easy for them there - they'd be a minnow among giants, at least at first.

Alaska: The Nanooks are in a tight spot. We've touched on why it's a bad idea for both Alaska schools to be in the same conference, and yet, when it comes to their survival, it might just end up happening anyway. Rumor has it that Alaska will apply for WCHA membership, which would put them with their rivals from Anchorage in what would then be an eight-team conference. That would almost certainly necessitate yearly trips to Alaska for the entire WCHA and require both UAF and UAA to get creative with non-conference games, but with the CCHA's existence in question, the Nanooks (and the Seawolves, who do depend on UAF for some games) probably feel that it's in their best interest to get themselves into an existing league.

Bowling Green: The Falcons, like their MAC colleagues from Western Michigan, also have options, but theirs are a little hazier. They could try for the WCHA, but they're a little far away from the rest of the conference and they'd be the only Division I program unless WMU decides on that path. They could stick around in the CCHA, especially if WMU chooses that path. NCHC or Hockey East bids would both be longshots.

Lake Superior State and Ferris State: These schools are absolutely stuck in limbo until something else happens. Neither are appealing to the WCHA or the NCHC due to the size of the schools and their geographic locations - which means they could well be dependent on the eventual survival of the CCHA in order to have a conference in 2013. They'll need to be proactive in recruiting new members, because it's going to require more than a few, and they're almost certainly going to come from Atlantic Hockey and the independent ranks (of which, there is only one, who we're getting to). That is a very difficult position to be in. They could forseeably try for WCHA membership, but remember, that conference is now completely comprised of smaller schools with smaller budgets and still involves a school from Alaska, if not two. The footprint can't grow by much more.

Niagara, Robert Morris, Mercyhurst, and Canisius: Recent reports have these four programs, known to be interested in moving up in the world, in discussions with the CCHA about joining that conference. The biggest problem right now? It's hard to know exactly what teams are concerned with the makeup of the CCHA in 2013. It seems that there's at most four - LSSU, Ferris, and maybe BGSU and/or WMU. That's a tough place to start from. One thing that is generally agreed upon here is that these four schools are almost certainly going to want to come into an Alaska-free CCHA. The inclusion of these four institutions would move the CCHA's footprint east, but it would guarantee the conference a minimum of six programs, even if four of them were new to the conference.

Air Force: If the above four teams leave Atlantic Hockey, it puts some additional pressure on Air Force to consider the new-look WCHA since it would leave AHA basically with Air Force, RIT, Holy Cross, and an assortment of low-budget or low-attention programs. The difficulty now, though, is that a WCHA comprised entirely of Minnesota, Alaska, and Upper Peninsula schools may not be terribly keen on bringing in a Colorado school, especially when both Alaska schools are involved.

Alabama-Huntsville: If the Big Ten was the best thing that could happen for UAH given the log-jam created by four full conferences and an 11-team CCHA unwilling to bring the Chargers on, the formation of the NCHC is probably one of the worst. It puts the power teams of the west, the ones with the most money and therefore most willing to bring in a team that requires more travel than the average program, into elite segments that UAH cannot hope to break into. That leaves the Chargers with two options - a CCHA largely comprised of teams that did not support their inclusion in the past, or an Atlantic Hockey that has lost some of its current programs. As with the Atlantic Hockey teams looking at the CCHA, UAH would almost certainly require Alaska to move out of the conference before they would be considered, but for the opposite reason: the existing schools of the CCHA would not be willing to deal with both UAH and UAF in the same conference, but might be more willing to stomach the Chargers without also having the Nanooks around.

MSU-Moorhead: WHO? Oh, you don't know the Dragons? That's probably because they don't have a varsity program. And yes, I said I wasn't going to engage in rampant speculation over schools without programs, but Moorhead has gone beyond speculation, announcing a fundraising drive last week for what they hope will be a new program in the near future. As a MnSCU school - the "MSU" stands for Minnesota State University - the Dragons would fit perfectly into the WCHA, given its new outlook. Let's not count them in quite yet, but they're hoping to be able to make an announcement of a new program in the coming months, so they're worth keeping an eye on.

So that's about where we stand right now. Waiting to see who the WCHA's new suitors are, what Notre Dame is going to do, and who WMU (and Northeastern, by the by) chooses as their new coach. Join us next time for another exciting edition of "As the Tsunami Turns."

Tsunami Watch: WCHA

The other conference due to lose teams to the Big Ten is the Western Collegiate Hockey Association. Minnesota and Wisconsin, right now, are a very important part of the WCHA's core, but unlike the CCHA, the WCHA seems to be in a fairly decent position before other chess pieces start moving. Why? Well, it's in part a numbers game and in part a strength game. The CCHA is losing 3 of their 11 teams, while the WCHA loses 2 of 12 - fewer of more. The CCHA teams that will form part of the Big Ten represent a solid chunk of the power teams of that conference. The WCHA teams still leave behind a number of strong programs.

So while we talked about an uncertain future for the CCHA, the WCHA seems poised to carry on reasonably well despite the loss of a charter member in Minnesota and a major player in Wisconsin.

Still, the WCHA is poised to have at least some significant change with the advent of the Big Ten. Whereas before, Hockey East has been their only real consistent adversary for the title of the nation's top league, they'll now have to contend with a Hockey East that will not be losing any of its top teams as well as the Big Ten itself. Will that weaken the position of some of the WCHA's programs? It could, but that would be a long-term effect. Here's what the short-term probably has in store for the schools of the WCHA.

Colorado College, Denver and North Dakota: The remaining heavy hitters of the WCHA, more or less. These schools will be the three remaining charter members of the league that have been there since the very start (Michigan Tech was also a charter member, but left for three seasons in the early 1980s). They've always given the WCHA a little more gravitas outside of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and they'll be the core of the new WCHA - precisely the reason that the conference itself will be OK.

Bemidji State, Minnesota State and St. Cloud State: Collectively, the MnSCU schools. Typically cast in the role of the little brother to the University of Minnesota system, they will sorely miss the revenue that the Gophers bring with them when they come into town. Bemidji State is still breathing a sigh of relief to be in the WCHA after the CHA collapsed, but the Mavericks and Huskies are sure to be extra disappointed - there's little assurance that the Gophers will come to Mankato and St. Cloud if they aren't required to. Regardless, they're very much set where they are and since the WCHA will easily be able to press on with the remaining programs, they're going to be pretty much untouched by the Big Ten with the exception of the revenue issue.

Minnesota-Duluth: The national champions finally emerged from the shadow of their cousins from the Twin Cities by raising the NCAA title for the first time, but they, like the MnSCU schools, enjoy some solid benefits from bringing the Gophers to town - though it's more likely that they'll still be able to schedule some non-conference games with them in the future given their historic and institutional links. In some ways, their championship this season makes them yet another player in keeping the WCHA vibrant after Minnesota and Wisconsin leave, though their history before that has always made them a key component of the league.

Nebraska-Omaha: The Mavericks moved from the CCHA to the WCHA last year in part because they saw the Big Ten coming down the pike - in some ways, their move was the real second move, simply taking place before the first move of the Big Ten. They're just thankful they were the ones that took the conference up on its membership offer, and they'll be just fine in the WCHA.

Alaska-Anchorage and Michigan Tech: Life's hard enough for the Seawolves and Huskies lately without having to find new accommodations. The departure of the two Big Ten schools is likely to have the least amount of real impact on these programs even though both Minnesota and Wisconsin were big draws no matter where they went. They'll be OK with the 10-team WCHA, though as mentioned in our discussion on the CCHA, the Huskies have ample reason to at the very least take a long, hard look at leaving, and the Seawolves don't have much incentive to bail to any other league because of the benefits of having the Alaska schools in separate conferences.

Expansion?

Unless Michigan Tech decides to fly the coop - or perhaps, even if they decide to leave - expansion really isn't going to be foremost on the WCHA's mind even in the wake of the Big Ten's formation, in part because the league has been reluctant in the past to expand. When everyone and their mother was clamoring for Bemidji State to be allowed into the WCHA as College Hockey America was collapsing in on itself, the league moved only slowly in the direction of bringing them (and ultimately, UNO) on board. Why? Because they haven't had much of a reason to expand. As one of the top leagues in the nation - especially in the last decade, where they won six of seven national championships in a row from 2000 to 2006 - they aren't going to bring just anyone aboard.

And yet, candidates exist - both of which we touched on earlier, but let's look at the league's perspective on them.

Notre Dame: The Irish would likely be a strong candidate from the league's perspective, because the notability of the school and the recent established strength of the program would both be instant boosts to the league's reputation, especially in the wake of the departure of two of its stalwarts in both of those categories. As mentioned, their new hockey facility will have a big enough capacity to fit into the league - at a capacity of roughly 5,000, they won't be above the league average but will have a larger facility than Minnesota State, Bemidji State, or Michigan Tech.

The one problem the league will have to overcome is its lack of "name" schools, which is the thing the Irish are chiefly expected to try to escape the CCHA over. Though the WCHA has some of the top hockey programs in the nation in its ranks, it has only two Division I schools after the Big Ten split - Denver and North Dakota. The Pioneers have only been a full D-I school since 1999, and the Sioux have only been D-I since 2008. Neither compete in a major conference in other D-I sports.

Miami: The Redhawks have a number of hurdles to get over before they would be accepted in the WCHA. First, as mentioned last week, their brand new arena, while awesome, would be the smallest in the WCHA. Second, Ohio stretches the footprint more than Indiana. Third, they don't have the "name" that Notre Dame has. And finally, the WCHA isn't going to be keen to rip both Notre Dame and Miami out of the CCHA (given that they probably wouldn't take Miami without the Irish leaving too - the CCHA minus just the Big Ten schools could probably hack it, but that seems fairly unlikely), since that would not be in the best interest of college hockey as a whole as it would only make the CCHA's situation all the more dire.

Northern Michigan: Another former WCHA program that could potentially come calling again. The Wildcats at least have this going for them - of the remaining CCHA teams, they'd probably have the best shot at getting in by far, but that's not really saying much.

It's worth noting here that the WCHA, now that they've brought in Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha, have established a pretty firm foothold on college hockey west of the Mississippi. If any major schools from the region - from the soon to be Pac-12, for instance - were to start a varsity program, the WCHA would in practical terms get the right of first refusal (minus, of course, the Big Ten's Nebraska-Lincoln).

Todd Milewski, International Man of Mystery (Media Pitstop #2)

For our second interview of the summer, we got the opportunity to sit down with another titan of the college hockey media world.

Todd Milewski is the executive editor of USCHO.com. The site is, for all intents and purposes, the grandfather of college hockey websites, having started publishing in the summer of 1996. The site revolutionized the way fans view the NCAA selection process when they began releasing the PairWise Rankings, a process of simple math that mimics the way the NCAA selection committee chooses at-large teams for the tournament. Today, the rankings, published weekly during the last third of the season, are closely watched at all levels of the sport, from the casual fans to the coaches. USCHO also publishes the most widely cited weekly national Top 20 poll in the college hockey world.

Milewski, a 1999 graduate of the University of Wisconsin, has been with USCHO for quite some time, serving a number of years as the site's WCHA writer. He has also covered the Wisconsin Badgers for USCHO and the Capital Times of Madison, Wis. Last season, Milewski became the executive editor at USCHO, and also works as a multimedia editor for madison.com.

Without a Peer: So... you primarily have covered Wisconsin, we primarily cover RPI. Probably the two teams that have been hardest hit by the importance of talent lost in the Great Youth Drain of 2010. Hug?

Todd Milewski: Sure, why not.

WaP: What's it going to be like for these teams this season? I mean, it seemed like no one saw this coming.

TM: If they really didn't see it coming, it's a little tough to understand. I think Wisconsin knew it was going to be a mass exodus. Maybe RPI was a little surprised, but this is what happens these days when you've got that kind of talent, like it or not. That's another subject altogether.

WaP: Does this brave new world make the elite talents somewhat less desirable than the solid talents that'll stick around for four years?

TM: I think it changes the game, but what I've heard coaches say is that you're willing to accept the reality that comes with having a player who's good enough to go after one year - as long as you've planned for it. Look at the backlog of players Wisconsin had commit over the last few years. That was for a reason. Now, it bit them last year because they may have expected more players to go, but if you're going to be in the hunt for the elite guys, you have to have Plans A, B and C, if not more.

WaP: Don Lucia has been accused of letting some blue chip talents de-commit and head elsewhere, but if you have guys returning that you thought were going to be gone, suddenly you don't have room for everyone.

TM: Exactly. I don't know how you can fault a coach for being prepared. If it went the other way, and they were grabbing players that were clearly not ready for this level just to fill out the team because more players left than expected, that coach would get the heat, too.

WaP: Seems like it might even the playing field a touch.

TM: I think it has. All of a sudden, some schools that didn't have a chance at upper-level recruits are in the mix.

WaP: So what are we looking at in the WCHA this season? Everything we've been hearing out here has it pegged as a battle between UND and SCSU at the top and a big mess below that. Is that fair?

TM: If it's like any of the last few seasons, North Dakota will start slow, pick up steam around the return from break and go on a tear down the stretch. So I think they'll be in the mix. I think SCSU could be good. I really wonder what we're going to see from Nebraska-Omaha and Bemidji State. I get the feeling Dean Blais is going to have UNO up there somewhere - maybe not the top, but a good chance at top half. I don't think you can rule out Denver, either, even with the losses they took.

WaP: Speaking of Dean Blais... given what he accomplished at North Dakota and what he's done for USA Hockey, especially the unexpected gold medal at the World Juniors last year, is it fair to call him the Herb Brooks of our time? Is that a fair comparison?

TM: I read someone making that comparison once, and my first reaction was to dismiss it. Then you think about it a little more, and it's not too far off. I'd like to give him another year or two at UNO to see if he has magic there, but in terms of a presence among college hockey coaches, he's in that class with Brooks.

WaP: Now that the dust seems almost ready to settle - although, who knows, there could be some more sudden and unexpected defections - who are your early pre-season choices to meet in St. Paul in April?

TM: That's a good one. Way too early to pick this, but I'll take Boston College for sure. They're not on that early departures list yet, which should be big for them. Then maybe North Dakota, Miami and how about Denver. I'm not enthused about picking DU there, but I can see it happening.

WaP: Could Yale have a legit shot at making it that far, or is the ECAC just doomed to mediocrity in late March?

TM: When I was looking through teams trying to come up with a Frozen Four, they were one of those in the list. Are they going to try to play every goaltender on campus again this season? I wasn't a big fan of that, and I wonder if it held them back last year. It seems like they have enough talent up front.

WaP: Their attitude seems to be that if you can score enough goals, you usually don't have to worry about defense all that much. BC spiked that idea last year. They've got a heck of a forecheck, though.

TM: I saw them play a couple games last year at the Wisconsin tournament, and they seemed like one of those teams that could break out and be a real force, but I wonder if that's a short-term deal.

WaP: How about the NCAA's proposal to change the regional system into a home series for the top seeds? What's your take on that?

TM: I think you have to do it one way or another. If you're going to have it on campus in the first round, it has to be on campus in the second round. Otherwise, aren't you just pushing those same attendance issues onto the second round? I think the NCAA needs to figure out what its priority is - attendance or a fair bracket - and go with whatever works best. But going to campus sites seems like a step back to me.

WaP: One thought we had about it is that, if nothing else, it might build some interesting out-of-conference rivalries if a couple of teams play a particularly intense series. We try to find the good in everything... unfortunately, we were unable to find anything good about the concept of icing on the penalty kill.

TM: Yeah, that was kind of out of left field, wasn't it?

WaP: It was shocking to find that Forrest Karr actually had a background in hockey and he was still pushing it as a good idea.

TM: Forrest definitely has a strong hockey background, and I think there's one thing in the idea that has at least some merit, and it's that players should be taught how to work the puck out of trouble instead of flinging it down the ice. I think that's a valid concern, but it didn't have enough weight to change that rule so radically.

WaP: Our overriding concern was really that Paul Kelly's job is hard enough without suddenly trying to convince potentially reticent recruits to come spend a few years playing with a power play and penalty kill strategy that no one else uses anywhere.

TM: Yeah, that's the overriding concern that I think finally brought it down. I feel bad for Forrest because that was his last set of rule changes as part of the committee, and that's what he'll be remembered for.

WaP: Yeah, that's definitely true. Sticks out like a sore thumb. Are half-shields in the NCAA's future? If so, what kind of effect will it have on the game?

TM: It's not hard to find people who think it is. I'm not sure it's going to be very easy to get that through the NCAA. It opens up a pretty big liability if you go from full shields to half shields. But if those who are in favor of the change can effectively explain how it can make the game safer, it has a chance. As for the effect it would have, let's hope it would keep some of those sticks down. Seriously, it's scary out there sometimes, and that's just from watching from the press box. Imagine it down on the ice.

WaP: Last question - what is there that could possibly be done to create some semblance of peace between the CHL and the NCAA?

TM: I honestly think if there's peace to be made, it's going to have to come from the NHL. And with the way things look right now, I don't like the chances of that happening. The CHL isn't going to give up things easily, and college hockey doesn't have anything to give away, really. I just have trouble picturing what harmony between the NHL, CHL and college would look like. I'd love to see it, but it's going to be tough.