Tunnel vision is rarely a good thing. It may keep you focused on what's important, but you miss all the stuff around the edges that can have an impact on that which is important.
It's been about a week and a half since RPI's unexpected end to their season (and a little under a week since that was made official by a string of bizarre results across the nation), and the frustration has some people getting upset with the prolongation of the team's struggle to reach the ECAC semifinals. The drought now sits at 11 straight without making an appearance in either Albany or Atlantic City, and it's in no small part due to three home playoff series in the last four years that the Engineers were unable to win.
If you've got tunnel vision, the answer is simple. RPI simply can't get over the hump, and it's the coach's fault.
Here's the problem with that line of thinking - each series is different, even if the end result is the same.
And yet, as different as those series were, there's one thing about them that needs to be pointed out: what happened afterwards.
You see, tunnel vision ignores the input of the other team in how things turn out, and in all three cases, that other team was pretty clearly doing OK.
In 2010, RPI dropped a three-game series to Brown. The Engineers weren't huge favorites to advance to Albany that season, but for the first time in several years it didn't seem like something that would have been a shock if it had happened. As the home team, they were favored to beat a Brown team that had gone 3-10-3 since New Year's. They dropped Game 1, came back strong in Game 2, and lost a comeback attempt in Game 3 by one goal, 3-2.
What happened after that? Well, Brown went on to play against the #1 seed in the ECAC, Yale. They went down to Ingalls Rink and defeated the best team in the league in three games, eventually claiming 3rd place in Albany.
In 2011, RPI dropped a three-game series to last place Colgate. Despite a rough stretch late in the season that cost the Engineers a crack at a first-round bye, optimism was high that RPI could at least dispatch a Colgate team suffering a horrendous season to earn the right to take on a Cornell team that they'd tied in the standings. Again, as the home team, they were favored over a Colgate squad that had failed to register a victory in each of their first 15 league games. They dropped Game 1, came back strong in Game 2, and took Game 3 to two overtimes before falling.
What happened after that? Colgate went to the #1 seed in the ECAC the following week, taking on Union. They defeated the best team in the league in three games and earned the right to head to Atlantic City despite not picking up their first league win until February.
This season, RPI dropped a three-game series to Brown once again, with the major difference being that this time, it was in the quarterfinal round thanks to a torrid end to the season for the Engineers. This time it was Atlantic City or bust, and even though Brown certainly had some things going for them, RPI was still the solid favorite. They dropped game one, came back strong in Game 2, and lost a comeback attempt in Game 3 by one goal, 3-2. (Whoa. Deja vu.)
What happened after that? Brown went to Atlantic City to take on the #1 seed in the ECAC, Quinnipiac. They not only beat the best team in the league - and for much of the season, the nation - they did it going away, with four goals in a little over 35 minutes for a 4-0 victory.
So before you become obsessed with the tunnel vision look, remember these two very important items.
1) RPI did not roll over for these teams. In each case, the Game 1 loss resulted in a fired-up, big victory in Game 2, eventually creating an all-out war in Game 3 that RPI came up just short in each time.
2) Each of the teams the Engineers faced went on to take on the top seed in the tournament afterwards, and defeated them - in other words, it wasn't just some fluke.
After pointing out item 2 on Twitter last week, I got a response (the seriousness of which I am unsure of) which claimed that 2010 Brown, 2011 Colgate, and 2013 Brown found success against the #1 seeds because they were energized after beating RPI, who played poorly.
I honestly don't know what to say to that. Beating a team that's playing poorly all it takes to get up and beat the best team in the league, or perhaps the best team played poorly too?
At any rate, understand that there's no RPI fan who isn't disappointed by what we've seen in the last four years in terms of playoff hockey in Troy - but sometimes, you just end up with a team that is figuring things out at the right time, and you make little mistakes. For instance, Game 1 was not good for RPI, and the team made little errors early in Game 3 that ended up costing them the game and the series.
But let's not blow this into something it's not. It would be one thing if RPI was just playing poorly and getting run by losers. It's another thing to simply have the bad luck to run into a number of teams willing and, more importantly, able to turn their seasons around at the end.
Put this a different way - RPI finds some bounce of the puck against Colgate in 2011 that allows them to score during some part of the 30 minutes of overtime that was played in Game 3, and there's not much of a link anymore, is there?
Time to suck it up and go back at it next season... which is shaping up to be a fun one if we can meet potential.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Thank You
Yesterday was almost a complete disaster for RPI and basically every other team on the bubble. After getting the wrong results in both games on Thursday, the first three straight games went poorly for the Engineers, and after finally getting one good result (barely), one more bad game was all it took to mathematically eliminate RPI from contention for the NCAA tournament. They needed favorites to win, usually a good place to be. Favorites have been falling left and right. Some teams that were thought to be virtual locks are now sweating it out today.
So amidst the absolute wreckage that is... well, basically every conference tournament out there, allow us to step aside from the mess with just one simple message.
Thank you.
#14 Greg Burgdoerfer - East Setauket, NY - Business and Management
#22 C.J. Lee - Staten Island, NY - Mechanical Engineering
#27 Marty O'Grady - London, ON - Business and Management
#29 Nick Bailen - Fredonia, NY - Business and Management
#32 Bryce Merriam - Bethel Park, PA - Business and Management
--
#5 Katie Daniels - Rockton, IL - Mechanical Engineering
#15 Taylor Horton - St. Thomas, ON - Interdisciplinary Science/Psychology
#17 Clare Padmore - Toronto, ON - Civil Engineering
#21 Andie Le Donne - Toronto, ON - Communications
#26 Kristen Jakubowski - Colorado Springs, CO - Biomedical Engineering
So amidst the absolute wreckage that is... well, basically every conference tournament out there, allow us to step aside from the mess with just one simple message.
Thank you.
#14 Greg Burgdoerfer - East Setauket, NY - Business and Management
#22 C.J. Lee - Staten Island, NY - Mechanical Engineering
#27 Marty O'Grady - London, ON - Business and Management
#29 Nick Bailen - Fredonia, NY - Business and Management
#32 Bryce Merriam - Bethel Park, PA - Business and Management
--
#5 Katie Daniels - Rockton, IL - Mechanical Engineering
#15 Taylor Horton - St. Thomas, ON - Interdisciplinary Science/Psychology
#17 Clare Padmore - Toronto, ON - Civil Engineering
#21 Andie Le Donne - Toronto, ON - Communications
#26 Kristen Jakubowski - Colorado Springs, CO - Biomedical Engineering
Friday, March 22, 2013
Favored Sons
Well, we wanted Minnesota State and North Dakota, we got Wisconsin and Colorado College. Not the best start, but fortunately we're not in a position to be do-or-die anywhere just yet... although we're looking at some BIG games today.
With the two setbacks, RPI's KRACH-weighted odds of making the national tournament now sits at 14.8794%. The Engineers can no longer finish 13th in the Pairwise, the best they can now hope for is 14th (587 scenarios of a possible 32,296).
We've got the same 12 teams that are locks or virtual locks. Here's where we stand with the rest of the at-large hopefuls.
Notre Dame - 85.9161%
Western Michigan - 81.9957%
Union - 54.5077%
Wisconsin - 25.1730%
Boston University - 19.5755%
Providence - 18.7168%
Rensselaer - 14.8784%
Robert Morris - 0.8433%
Alaska has been eliminated from NCAA contention due to CC's win over North Dakota.
All of those figures are down from yesterday with the exception of Wisconsin, naturally. RPI and Union took the biggest hits (as did RMU, if you consider that they were at least above 3% yesterday), the others were minimal at best.
It should go without saying that we want our closest competitors for an at-large bid to lose ASAP. That means we'd like to get those four teams ahead of us out tonight, if possible. Since all four are playing teams that are guaranteed to be in the tournament anyway, it makes much of what we're hoping to see today very academic.
Here's the schedule, all times eastern.
3pm
St. Cloud State over Wisconsin
4pm
Quinnipiac over Brown
Niagara over Canisius
5pm
UMass-Lowell over Providence
7:30pm
Yale over Union
Mercyhurst over UConn
8pm
Boston College over Boston University
Minnesota over Colorado College
The Mercyhurst/UConn game has been hard to draw a bead on for sure, in part because it's probably the least important game of the night for the Engineers, but also because there are different potential reasons for supporting either team. Ultimately, our gut instinct is to take Mercyhurst. Why? Because RPI played the Lakers this year (winning twice), which suggests a better PWR boost if they win tonight. They are lower rated in KRACH than UConn, suggesting that if Niagara advances as we hope they will, the Purps would be more heavily favored against Mercyhurst than against the Huskies.
Despite this, the Engineers appear to be better off in the KRACH-weighted odds if UConn wins, even though a Mercyhurst victory leaves more paths to an at-large bid open. We're sticking with our gut and taking the Lakers - which could be irrelevant if Niagara wins anyway.
The good news? We're rooting for higher seeds in every game but the Mercyhurst/UConn game.
The bad news? Losses for our teams in any of the five biggest games - SCSU/UW, Niagara/Canisius, UML/PC, Yale/UC, and BC/BU - would be difficult to swallow.
With the CCHA on a Saturday/Sunday schedule this year, it's likely we won't know for sure if the Engineers are in the tournament until Sunday. If they're definitively out, that could come today or tomorrow.
We'll keep you updated via Twitter as the day progresses. Starting at three, we'll also have a chat here at WaP if you wish to keep caught up on what's going on around the country in real time.
Once more unto the breach, friends.
With the two setbacks, RPI's KRACH-weighted odds of making the national tournament now sits at 14.8794%. The Engineers can no longer finish 13th in the Pairwise, the best they can now hope for is 14th (587 scenarios of a possible 32,296).
We've got the same 12 teams that are locks or virtual locks. Here's where we stand with the rest of the at-large hopefuls.
Notre Dame - 85.9161%
Western Michigan - 81.9957%
Union - 54.5077%
Wisconsin - 25.1730%
Boston University - 19.5755%
Providence - 18.7168%
Rensselaer - 14.8784%
Robert Morris - 0.8433%
Alaska has been eliminated from NCAA contention due to CC's win over North Dakota.
All of those figures are down from yesterday with the exception of Wisconsin, naturally. RPI and Union took the biggest hits (as did RMU, if you consider that they were at least above 3% yesterday), the others were minimal at best.
It should go without saying that we want our closest competitors for an at-large bid to lose ASAP. That means we'd like to get those four teams ahead of us out tonight, if possible. Since all four are playing teams that are guaranteed to be in the tournament anyway, it makes much of what we're hoping to see today very academic.
Here's the schedule, all times eastern.
3pm
St. Cloud State over Wisconsin
4pm
Quinnipiac over Brown
Niagara over Canisius
5pm
UMass-Lowell over Providence
7:30pm
Yale over Union
Mercyhurst over UConn
8pm
Boston College over Boston University
Minnesota over Colorado College
The Mercyhurst/UConn game has been hard to draw a bead on for sure, in part because it's probably the least important game of the night for the Engineers, but also because there are different potential reasons for supporting either team. Ultimately, our gut instinct is to take Mercyhurst. Why? Because RPI played the Lakers this year (winning twice), which suggests a better PWR boost if they win tonight. They are lower rated in KRACH than UConn, suggesting that if Niagara advances as we hope they will, the Purps would be more heavily favored against Mercyhurst than against the Huskies.
Despite this, the Engineers appear to be better off in the KRACH-weighted odds if UConn wins, even though a Mercyhurst victory leaves more paths to an at-large bid open. We're sticking with our gut and taking the Lakers - which could be irrelevant if Niagara wins anyway.
The good news? We're rooting for higher seeds in every game but the Mercyhurst/UConn game.
The bad news? Losses for our teams in any of the five biggest games - SCSU/UW, Niagara/Canisius, UML/PC, Yale/UC, and BC/BU - would be difficult to swallow.
With the CCHA on a Saturday/Sunday schedule this year, it's likely we won't know for sure if the Engineers are in the tournament until Sunday. If they're definitively out, that could come today or tomorrow.
We'll keep you updated via Twitter as the day progresses. Starting at three, we'll also have a chat here at WaP if you wish to keep caught up on what's going on around the country in real time.
Once more unto the breach, friends.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Hacking the Pairwise, 2013
You may remember that, two years ago, with the Engineers sitting out for two full weeks waiting to find out what their fate would be, RPI junior Reilly Hamilton, in part spurred by impatient RPI fans, decided to go ahead and calculate what the odds were. We found out after the conference quarterfinals were all over that the odds were actually pretty decent - one week out, the Tute was sitting on an 81% chance of playing in the NCAAs, a result that was borne out by the end.
This year, the calculations are easier (the CCHA has ditched their consolation game, significantly dropping the number of potential scenarios) but the slog is significantly higher.
According to Reilly's calculations this year, (that would now be RPI grad Reilly) the Engineers currently sit at a 20.9488% chance of picking up an NCAA bid.
That's not stellar. But on the other hand, it's actually not that bad when you look at the full collection of at-large bubble teams - underscoring the need to have as few tournament upsets as possible.
So how does it work? We can do the heavy lifting to simply determine what the percentage is on the number of scenarios that put the Engineers in the tournament - the figure is under 10% - but that presumes that each and every scenario is equally likely. Instead, Reilly weights potential scenarios using KRACH, perhaps the best option out there for comparing teams to each other. As he mentions, there's no really good way of using KRACH to determine the odds of a tie, but with only one game left that can end in a tie - the ECAC consolation - it's not an overly major concern.
Here's what it says.
There are seven teams, as we mentioned on Tuesday, that will be in no matter what happens as of right now (teams with no games remaining are in italics):
Quinnipiac (#1)
Minnesota (#2)
Miami (#3-#6)
UMass-Lowell (#3-#10)
Boston College (#3-#10)
North Dakota (#3-#11)
New Hampshire (#5-#11)
Then there are five other teams that are at over 99% in terms of scenarios that have them in. These teams are functionally in the tournament:
Minnesota State (#3-#13)
Denver (#9-#13)
Niagara (#4-#14)
Yale (#3-#14)
St. Cloud State (#4-#15)
So that's 12 teams that are in. The odds of teams on the bubble for an at-large:
Notre Dame - 87.9112%
Western Michigan - 86.8950%
Union - 60.1731%
Rensselaer - 20.9488%
Boston University - 19.7945%
Providence - 18.7914%
Wisconsin - 9.9528%
Robert Morris - 3.1676%
Alaska - 0.0324%
This is where we start to see why it's important to have favorites (especially teams in that 12 team group that are already in the tournament) winning this coming weekend. Especially if we can get losses as soon as possible by BU, Providence, and Wisconsin, the Engineers actually stand a decent chance of being that last team in as long as upsets are kept at a minimum.
For teams that must win their tournament to make the NCAAs:
UConn - 23.5290%
Mercyhurst - 17.4484%
Ohio State - 14.3688%
Canisius - 13.1246%
Michigan - 11.7761%
Brown - 10.3210%
Colorado College - 3.7661%
So, where do we go from here? Well, Reilly has already done the calculations for tonight's WCHA Final Five games.
The most important one, as we expected, was the game taking place at 3pm Eastern time between Minnesota State and Wisconsin. If the Mavericks win, the Engineers will see their odds boosted almost 5%. If the Badgers win, the odds go down over 5%. That makes this one of the weekend's key games.
As far as the Colorado College/North Dakota game, it doesn't seem to be all that important, since the changes are not that big - though for some reason, a Colorado College win provides a small boost, while a North Dakota win provides a small hit. Not overly important, but if that's the case we probably prefer CC, although if UND does win, it helps end the very slight possibility of an upset champion from the WCHA (completely ending it if MSU and UND both win). That should be more important in the long run.
We'll have more updates as Reilly reruns his program after each night's activity.
As for today:
Minnesota State over Wisconsin
North Dakota over Colorado College
It's not an optimal situation, of course - but it's better than being where the other three ECAC quarterfinal losers are now: knowing there's no hope for an NCAA bid.
Go Mavericks!
This year, the calculations are easier (the CCHA has ditched their consolation game, significantly dropping the number of potential scenarios) but the slog is significantly higher.
According to Reilly's calculations this year, (that would now be RPI grad Reilly) the Engineers currently sit at a 20.9488% chance of picking up an NCAA bid.
That's not stellar. But on the other hand, it's actually not that bad when you look at the full collection of at-large bubble teams - underscoring the need to have as few tournament upsets as possible.
So how does it work? We can do the heavy lifting to simply determine what the percentage is on the number of scenarios that put the Engineers in the tournament - the figure is under 10% - but that presumes that each and every scenario is equally likely. Instead, Reilly weights potential scenarios using KRACH, perhaps the best option out there for comparing teams to each other. As he mentions, there's no really good way of using KRACH to determine the odds of a tie, but with only one game left that can end in a tie - the ECAC consolation - it's not an overly major concern.
Here's what it says.
There are seven teams, as we mentioned on Tuesday, that will be in no matter what happens as of right now (teams with no games remaining are in italics):
Quinnipiac (#1)
Minnesota (#2)
Miami (#3-#6)
UMass-Lowell (#3-#10)
Boston College (#3-#10)
North Dakota (#3-#11)
New Hampshire (#5-#11)
Then there are five other teams that are at over 99% in terms of scenarios that have them in. These teams are functionally in the tournament:
Minnesota State (#3-#13)
Denver (#9-#13)
Niagara (#4-#14)
Yale (#3-#14)
St. Cloud State (#4-#15)
So that's 12 teams that are in. The odds of teams on the bubble for an at-large:
Notre Dame - 87.9112%
Western Michigan - 86.8950%
Union - 60.1731%
Rensselaer - 20.9488%
Boston University - 19.7945%
Providence - 18.7914%
Wisconsin - 9.9528%
Robert Morris - 3.1676%
Alaska - 0.0324%
This is where we start to see why it's important to have favorites (especially teams in that 12 team group that are already in the tournament) winning this coming weekend. Especially if we can get losses as soon as possible by BU, Providence, and Wisconsin, the Engineers actually stand a decent chance of being that last team in as long as upsets are kept at a minimum.
For teams that must win their tournament to make the NCAAs:
UConn - 23.5290%
Mercyhurst - 17.4484%
Ohio State - 14.3688%
Canisius - 13.1246%
Michigan - 11.7761%
Brown - 10.3210%
Colorado College - 3.7661%
So, where do we go from here? Well, Reilly has already done the calculations for tonight's WCHA Final Five games.
The most important one, as we expected, was the game taking place at 3pm Eastern time between Minnesota State and Wisconsin. If the Mavericks win, the Engineers will see their odds boosted almost 5%. If the Badgers win, the odds go down over 5%. That makes this one of the weekend's key games.
As far as the Colorado College/North Dakota game, it doesn't seem to be all that important, since the changes are not that big - though for some reason, a Colorado College win provides a small boost, while a North Dakota win provides a small hit. Not overly important, but if that's the case we probably prefer CC, although if UND does win, it helps end the very slight possibility of an upset champion from the WCHA (completely ending it if MSU and UND both win). That should be more important in the long run.
We'll have more updates as Reilly reruns his program after each night's activity.
As for today:
Minnesota State over Wisconsin
North Dakota over Colorado College
It's not an optimal situation, of course - but it's better than being where the other three ECAC quarterfinal losers are now: knowing there's no hope for an NCAA bid.
Go Mavericks!
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Engineer Bracketology: Week 5
This is going to be a somewhat easy pull this week. No nitty gritty details, just the basic facts.
The Engineers are currently in a five-way tie for 16th in the Pairwise with Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University, and Alaska. This breaks out to a 19th place position in the rankings, and currently out of the tournament. See the full ranking here.
Since Rensselaer is currently not in the tournament, we're going to forgo the bracket today. The bottom line is that the Engineers need help to keep their season alive, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could finish as high as 13th, which with some frequency would see them earning an at-large bid to the NCAAs as long as there weren't an insane number of tournament upsets that go along.
Here's what we need.
1) As few upsets in the conference tournaments as possible. A result would be considered an upset if a tournament is won by any team listed below:
Atlantic Hockey: UConn, Mercyhurst, or Canisius.
CCHA: Ohio State or Michigan.
ECAC: Union or Brown.
Hockey East: Boston University or Providence.
WCHA: Wisconsin or Colorado College.
These teams, almost across the board, we want to lose as soon as possible. Almost without exception, these are teams that would not be in the tournament if they do not win their league tournament, which means they could displace potential at-large teams (Union is a special case). There's only one game currently out there that pits two of these teams against each other - Mercyhurst and UConn - and in every other case these teams are playing higher seeded teams in their next game. There is a reason to support Ohio State in their game, however, due to their opponent (Notre Dame).
2) Losses by teams around the Engineers in the Pairwise. Of the teams they're currently tied with, Alaska is already done, and the other three we already see above we are rooting against. We can add to this list Union, for whom two losses in Atlantic City would be extremely helpful in getting the Tute into the NCAAs.
3) Wins by teams the Engineers played outside of the ECAC, where possible. These will provide the best possible boosts to Rensselaer's RPI now that they can't provide their own anymore. This means Mercyhurst, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota State. The latter two we can root for continuously. The first we can only cheer for in the first round. Boston University, being a team in direct competition for an at-large position, is not a team we can support.
4) Notre Dame is being bolstered greatly by Michigan being a TUC (they have a 4-0-0 record against the Wolverines), which provides extra incentive to root against Michigan, as a loss should drop them off the TUC cliff.
So here's what we're hoping to see as of right now. The most important results are in bold. This is somewhat subject to change based on actual occurring events, which we will cover on Friday and Saturday. Explanations listed below.
Thursday
Minnesota State over Wisconsin - RPI boost, plus it likely eliminates an at-large contender and potential upset champion.
North Dakota over Colorado College - Eliminates a potential upset champion.
Friday
St. Cloud State over whoever they play - RPI boost (Engineers had better record vs. SCSU than MSU), could potentially eliminate at-large contender/potential upset champion if UW beats MSU.
Quinnipiac over Brown - Eliminates a potential upset champion.
Niagara over Canisius - Eliminates a potential upset champion.
UMass-Lowell over Providence - Eliminates an at-large contender and potential upset champion.
Yale over Union - Hurts an at-large contender and eliminates a potential upset champion.
Mercyhurst over UConn - RPI boost.
Boston College over Boston University - Eliminates an at-large contender and potential upset champion.
Minnesota over whoever they play - Probably not important unless Minnesota is playing Colorado College.
Saturday
Ohio State over Notre Dame - Allows a potential upset champion into the title game but deals an RPI blow to the Fighting Irish.
Miami over Michigan - Eliminates a potential upset champion and drops Michigan as a TUC.
As far as we can tell, the Engineers' best case scenario would land them 13th in the Pairwise, a better position than they were in for the 2011 tournament. They would be the top-rated #4 seed in the tournament and would stand a pretty solid likelihood of being placed in Manchester against what would likely be the Hockey East champion (either Boston College or UMass-Lowell).
There are, no doubt, other ways for the Engineers to get into the tournament. There are apparently reasons to support UConn over Mercyhurst. Please, feel free to share with us some of your best ways to get the Engineers into the tournament - hit us up with the link to the right (contact us), one of the best ways to examine potential paths is through the You Are The Committee tool.
There are, no doubt, other ways for the Engineers to get into the tournament. There are apparently reasons to support UConn over Mercyhurst. Please, feel free to share with us some of your best ways to get the Engineers into the tournament - hit us up with the link to the right (contact us), one of the best ways to examine potential paths is through the You Are The Committee tool.
We're hoping to have more information before Thursday on what we can expect out of the Pairwise this weekend. Two years ago, we hacked the Pairwise to determine what each team's odds were on making the tournament, we're hoping to do that again this season.
The "bubble" currently consists of Western Michigan, Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University, Rensselaer, Alaska, and Robert Morris as far as teams that can potentially get in with an at-large bid or that have a realistic likelihood of falling out of the current tournament field. Those eight teams are in the running for what should end up being between one and three slots, depending on how many upsets there are in the conference tournaments (operating under the assumption that anything more than two upsets is unlikely - three would almost certainly require these teams listed to win their conference's automatic bid).
The "bubble" currently consists of Western Michigan, Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University, Rensselaer, Alaska, and Robert Morris as far as teams that can potentially get in with an at-large bid or that have a realistic likelihood of falling out of the current tournament field. Those eight teams are in the running for what should end up being between one and three slots, depending on how many upsets there are in the conference tournaments (operating under the assumption that anything more than two upsets is unlikely - three would almost certainly require these teams listed to win their conference's automatic bid).
As far as what we know about seeding, Quinnipiac is locked into the #1 overall seed and will play in Providence unless Brown wins the ECAC tournament (they would be seeded as the #4 seed in Providence as hosts and could not play QU), in which case they would play in Manchester. This means the Engineers have no possible method for ending up in Providence, should they make the tournament.
Minnesota will be the #2 overall seed and be placed as the #1 seed in Grand Rapids.
Other potential #1 seeds are Miami, Boston College, Yale, UMass-Lowell, North Dakota, Notre Dame, Minnesota State, Niagara, and St. Cloud State.
Thus, since the Engineers can only possibly be a #4 seed, should they play in the tournament, they would play one of the teams mentioned in the two sentences above with the exception of Yale.
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, UMass-Lowell, North Dakota, and New Hampshire are guaranteed NCAA bids - there is no scenario where these teams miss the tournament. New Hampshire, as hosts in Manchester, will be either the #2 or #3 seed in that regional (it is mathematically possible for them to be a #4 seed, but exceptionally unlikely).
Yale, Notre Dame, Minnesota State, Niagara, St. Cloud State, and Denver are essentially assured of making the tournament. None are a lock, but something weird would have to happen for them to be out.
Other potential #1 seeds are Miami, Boston College, Yale, UMass-Lowell, North Dakota, Notre Dame, Minnesota State, Niagara, and St. Cloud State.
Thus, since the Engineers can only possibly be a #4 seed, should they play in the tournament, they would play one of the teams mentioned in the two sentences above with the exception of Yale.
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, UMass-Lowell, North Dakota, and New Hampshire are guaranteed NCAA bids - there is no scenario where these teams miss the tournament. New Hampshire, as hosts in Manchester, will be either the #2 or #3 seed in that regional (it is mathematically possible for them to be a #4 seed, but exceptionally unlikely).
Yale, Notre Dame, Minnesota State, Niagara, St. Cloud State, and Denver are essentially assured of making the tournament. None are a lock, but something weird would have to happen for them to be out.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Men's Hockey - ECAC Quarterfinals (15/16/17 Mar)
Another year, another wasted opportunity for RPI in the ECAC playoffs. For the 11th consecutive season, the Engineers will miss the ECAC semifinal round, as they fell in three games against the 7th ranked Brown Bears, dropping Game 1 by a 3-1 score, bouncing back for a 6-2 victory in Game 2, and then losing a heartwrenching Game 3, 3-2, despite long stretches of dominant play.
Game 1
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan
No changes to the RPI lineup once again, marking the seventh straight game that the Engineers fielded the same lineup with the same lines.
Coming into the game, we mentioned that one of the things the Engineers needed to accomplish on the weekend was to stop the line that included sophomore forward Matt Lorito. Eight minutes into the first period, RPI got caught playing lax defense in their own zone with the Lorito line on the ice, and the Bears capitalized. With an extended opportunity in the RPI zone resembling a power play, Brown got on the board first with a goal by Lorito to make the score 1-0, a happenstance that allowed the Bears to push the focus on their forecheck and defensive mechanisms, which they tend to employ once they have a lead of any sort.
Poor decision making, passing, and puck handling were the stories of the night for the Engineers, who simply could not get any kind of sustained offense going for most of the first two periods of the game, especially following the Lorito goal. To make matters worse, RPI's outstanding power play was kept on the sidelines by an officiating crew that let pretty much anything go all night long for both teams, a net benefit to Brown, whose special teams on both sides of the puck were less than stellar during the regular season.
RPI did get two power play chances in the first two periods. The first came late in the first period, spilling over into the second period but yielding no results. The second occurred late in the second period, and this one proved fruitful as Jacob Laliberte scored his 10th goal of the season in the final minute of the period to tie the game up at one.
With the score tied, things opened up a bit more for the Engineers as Brown needed another goal. This gave the Engineers the opportunity to put more pucks on net than they had in the first two periods, but they were unable to find a way past Anthony Borelli, the other major factor for Brown heading into the weekend. Despite decent puck possession, RPI simply could not find the go ahead goal.
The tipping point came with about two minutes left in regulation. Mark McGowan was absolutely mugged on his way to retrieve the puck deep in the Brown zone, which would have left him in excellent position for a quality scoring opportunity. The uncalled interference - a penalty which went uncalled all night and only once all weekend despite copious examples from both teams - resulted in a turnover, and Brown rushed down the ice in transition, beating Jason Kasdorf with only 1:44 left in the third period to give the Bears a 2-1 edge.
RPI called timeout, and Kasdorf hit the bench after the Engineers got control of the ensuing faceoff. RPI put together few decent chances during the extra attacker stretch, and Brown eventually got it out and scored on the empty net from the RPI blue line, going up 3-1 with 10 seconds left and securing the Game 1 victory.
Game 2
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan
Brown at #16 RPI
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan
Kasdorf
No changes to the RPI lineup once again, marking the seventh straight game that the Engineers fielded the same lineup with the same lines.
Coming into the game, we mentioned that one of the things the Engineers needed to accomplish on the weekend was to stop the line that included sophomore forward Matt Lorito. Eight minutes into the first period, RPI got caught playing lax defense in their own zone with the Lorito line on the ice, and the Bears capitalized. With an extended opportunity in the RPI zone resembling a power play, Brown got on the board first with a goal by Lorito to make the score 1-0, a happenstance that allowed the Bears to push the focus on their forecheck and defensive mechanisms, which they tend to employ once they have a lead of any sort.
Poor decision making, passing, and puck handling were the stories of the night for the Engineers, who simply could not get any kind of sustained offense going for most of the first two periods of the game, especially following the Lorito goal. To make matters worse, RPI's outstanding power play was kept on the sidelines by an officiating crew that let pretty much anything go all night long for both teams, a net benefit to Brown, whose special teams on both sides of the puck were less than stellar during the regular season.
RPI did get two power play chances in the first two periods. The first came late in the first period, spilling over into the second period but yielding no results. The second occurred late in the second period, and this one proved fruitful as Jacob Laliberte scored his 10th goal of the season in the final minute of the period to tie the game up at one.
With the score tied, things opened up a bit more for the Engineers as Brown needed another goal. This gave the Engineers the opportunity to put more pucks on net than they had in the first two periods, but they were unable to find a way past Anthony Borelli, the other major factor for Brown heading into the weekend. Despite decent puck possession, RPI simply could not find the go ahead goal.
The tipping point came with about two minutes left in regulation. Mark McGowan was absolutely mugged on his way to retrieve the puck deep in the Brown zone, which would have left him in excellent position for a quality scoring opportunity. The uncalled interference - a penalty which went uncalled all night and only once all weekend despite copious examples from both teams - resulted in a turnover, and Brown rushed down the ice in transition, beating Jason Kasdorf with only 1:44 left in the third period to give the Bears a 2-1 edge.
RPI called timeout, and Kasdorf hit the bench after the Engineers got control of the ensuing faceoff. RPI put together few decent chances during the extra attacker stretch, and Brown eventually got it out and scored on the empty net from the RPI blue line, going up 3-1 with 10 seconds left and securing the Game 1 victory.
Game 2
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan
Kasdorf
Despite the loss, injury concerns left RPI's lineup untouched for the eight straight game - essentially, there was no one left to be swapped in even if they wanted to change things up. With line chemistry essential this late in the game, a juggling of lines was also out of the question.
The Engineers came out on a mission with their backs against the wall, and they did a decent job of controlling play in the first 20 minutes despite not getting the results they were looking for. Then the officiating reared its ugly head once again. Seconds after Brock Higgs was taken down after blocking a shot into the neutral zone to negate what would have likely been a breakaway, Milos Bubela was called for elbowing on what appeared to be a clean hit, not only being called for the penalty but picking up a major and a game misconduct as well. That was a double whammy that put the Engineers on a long penalty kill situation late in the first period.
RPI knuckled down, killing off the first portion of the penalty in the first period, then a further 1:10 of the major in the first period before a Brown penalty for too many men ended the power play. That power play failed to produce, but the Engineers would grab the key first goal about two minutes later as C.J. Lee scored his sixth goal of the season to put RPI up 1-0. That was followed on three and a half minutes later by Curtis Leonard, whose blast from the blue line put the Engineers up 2-0.
Brown, to their credit, did not fold. They scored their first goal of the night in a similar way as their first goal from Friday, with an extended offensive zone push from the Matt Lorito line. This time, the Bears actually were on the power play, and Lorito's 19th goal of the season cut RPI's lead in half.
Two minutes later, the Engineers were back on the penalty kill when top Brown defenseman Dennis Robertson leveled Nick Bailen behind the play with a vicious knee after Bailen had cleared the puck down the ice. Bailen got up limping and left the game, while Robertson was assessed a five minute major and a game misconduct.
The power play got off to an ignoble start for RPI, as some lax moves to recover a puck outside the zone gave an opportunistic Brown the chance to pounce on the puck and create a shorthanded odd-man rush, which connected to tie the score at two. But minutes later, the Engineers converted on the power play as Jacob Laliberte scored in the last minute of the second period for the second time in as many nights to give RPI the lead once more, 3-2.
The Engineers turned on the afterburners in the third period, playing their best hockey of the weekend and quickly ensuring that there would be hockey on Sunday night. Mike Zalewski scored a pair of even strength goals a little over two and a half minutes apart to make the score 5-2, chasing Anthony Borelli out of the Brown net. Chippiness ensued for the remaining 10 minutes, including late hit by Greg Burgdoerfer that probably should have seen the senior forward tossed from the game but didn't even result in a penalty. Burgdoerfer would then score with 9 seconds left in the contest to make the final score 6-2 in favor of the home team.
Game 3
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Dolan
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Hampton
Nick Bailen, it was announced in the newspaper on Sunday morning, had suffered a charley horse and would be ready to go by game time. However, as he came out for warmups, he was certainly missing something on his stride and he quickly returned to the locker room. Unable to play, the Engineers' leading scorer was replaced by Phil Hampton, RPI's only healthy reserve defenseman, who had appeared in just three games prior to Sunday night's deciding Game 3. The only other option that the Engineers had would have been to roll with five defensemen, adding Andrew Commers to the lineup as an extra forward.
The Engineers dominated puck possession practically from start to finish on Sunday night, outshooting the Bears on a 2-to-1 ratio in the first period alone, but costly mistakes in transition were capitalized upon by the visitors. Brown scored two goals 50 seconds apart in the middle of the period to go up 2-0, a deficit that seemed enormous due to Brown's proclivity for playing lock-down defense with the lead.
That margin only worsened five minutes into the second period, as another fast-breaking transition turned into a Brown goal on a weak move by Jason Kasdorf, sending Brown up 3-0 and making things look very bleak indeed. That all three goals happened against the flow of play, which was still being dominated by RPI, made things all the more frustrating for the Engineer fans filling Houston Field House.
But rather than pack it in, RPI came back with a renewed effort, especially late in the period. Mark McGowan broke the Engineers onto the board with 2:35 left in the second to cut Brown's lead to 3-1, then just under two minutes later, in the final minute of the second period, Mike Zalewski scored to make it 3-2, injecting life into the crowd and giving RPI the momentum and the initiative heading into the third period.
There, in the final period of the final game, the Engineers poured it on in search of the tying goal. With the Field House rocking, Brown retreated almost completely into their own zone, turning the third period into one giant penalty kill, albeit at even strength for basically the entire period. They committed to keeping the Engineers limited to mostly low percentage opportunities, but RPI came oh so close to tying the score on multiple occasions. It seemed as though a tying goal was practically inevitable, but eventually, time became a factor and the Engineers still had yet to find that goal.
With 1:40 left in the game, both teams used their timeouts, and Jason Kasdorf was pulled in favor of the extra attacker. Brown's desperate defense bent practically all the way over, but never broke. A boarding call against the Bears produced a 6-on-4 situation with 16 seconds remaining, but even that extra advantage was not enough, and far less than winning, the Bears escaped with a 3-2 victory, enough to give them a 2-1 series win, ending RPI's dreams of a berth in the league semifinals for the first time since 2002.
With the loss, the Engineers are now at the mercy of the Pairwise Rankings to find out if their season will continue. The good news is that they are not done yet, but they do need a few things to go their way if they are to continue playing in the NCAA tournament in two weeks. Nothing to do now but wait and see if things fall into place as they did two years ago for a berth in the regionals.
The Engineers came out on a mission with their backs against the wall, and they did a decent job of controlling play in the first 20 minutes despite not getting the results they were looking for. Then the officiating reared its ugly head once again. Seconds after Brock Higgs was taken down after blocking a shot into the neutral zone to negate what would have likely been a breakaway, Milos Bubela was called for elbowing on what appeared to be a clean hit, not only being called for the penalty but picking up a major and a game misconduct as well. That was a double whammy that put the Engineers on a long penalty kill situation late in the first period.
RPI knuckled down, killing off the first portion of the penalty in the first period, then a further 1:10 of the major in the first period before a Brown penalty for too many men ended the power play. That power play failed to produce, but the Engineers would grab the key first goal about two minutes later as C.J. Lee scored his sixth goal of the season to put RPI up 1-0. That was followed on three and a half minutes later by Curtis Leonard, whose blast from the blue line put the Engineers up 2-0.
Brown, to their credit, did not fold. They scored their first goal of the night in a similar way as their first goal from Friday, with an extended offensive zone push from the Matt Lorito line. This time, the Bears actually were on the power play, and Lorito's 19th goal of the season cut RPI's lead in half.
Two minutes later, the Engineers were back on the penalty kill when top Brown defenseman Dennis Robertson leveled Nick Bailen behind the play with a vicious knee after Bailen had cleared the puck down the ice. Bailen got up limping and left the game, while Robertson was assessed a five minute major and a game misconduct.
The power play got off to an ignoble start for RPI, as some lax moves to recover a puck outside the zone gave an opportunistic Brown the chance to pounce on the puck and create a shorthanded odd-man rush, which connected to tie the score at two. But minutes later, the Engineers converted on the power play as Jacob Laliberte scored in the last minute of the second period for the second time in as many nights to give RPI the lead once more, 3-2.
The Engineers turned on the afterburners in the third period, playing their best hockey of the weekend and quickly ensuring that there would be hockey on Sunday night. Mike Zalewski scored a pair of even strength goals a little over two and a half minutes apart to make the score 5-2, chasing Anthony Borelli out of the Brown net. Chippiness ensued for the remaining 10 minutes, including late hit by Greg Burgdoerfer that probably should have seen the senior forward tossed from the game but didn't even result in a penalty. Burgdoerfer would then score with 9 seconds left in the contest to make the final score 6-2 in favor of the home team.
Game 3
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton
Leonard-Dolan
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Hampton
Kasdorf
Nick Bailen, it was announced in the newspaper on Sunday morning, had suffered a charley horse and would be ready to go by game time. However, as he came out for warmups, he was certainly missing something on his stride and he quickly returned to the locker room. Unable to play, the Engineers' leading scorer was replaced by Phil Hampton, RPI's only healthy reserve defenseman, who had appeared in just three games prior to Sunday night's deciding Game 3. The only other option that the Engineers had would have been to roll with five defensemen, adding Andrew Commers to the lineup as an extra forward.
The Engineers dominated puck possession practically from start to finish on Sunday night, outshooting the Bears on a 2-to-1 ratio in the first period alone, but costly mistakes in transition were capitalized upon by the visitors. Brown scored two goals 50 seconds apart in the middle of the period to go up 2-0, a deficit that seemed enormous due to Brown's proclivity for playing lock-down defense with the lead.
That margin only worsened five minutes into the second period, as another fast-breaking transition turned into a Brown goal on a weak move by Jason Kasdorf, sending Brown up 3-0 and making things look very bleak indeed. That all three goals happened against the flow of play, which was still being dominated by RPI, made things all the more frustrating for the Engineer fans filling Houston Field House.
But rather than pack it in, RPI came back with a renewed effort, especially late in the period. Mark McGowan broke the Engineers onto the board with 2:35 left in the second to cut Brown's lead to 3-1, then just under two minutes later, in the final minute of the second period, Mike Zalewski scored to make it 3-2, injecting life into the crowd and giving RPI the momentum and the initiative heading into the third period.
There, in the final period of the final game, the Engineers poured it on in search of the tying goal. With the Field House rocking, Brown retreated almost completely into their own zone, turning the third period into one giant penalty kill, albeit at even strength for basically the entire period. They committed to keeping the Engineers limited to mostly low percentage opportunities, but RPI came oh so close to tying the score on multiple occasions. It seemed as though a tying goal was practically inevitable, but eventually, time became a factor and the Engineers still had yet to find that goal.
With 1:40 left in the game, both teams used their timeouts, and Jason Kasdorf was pulled in favor of the extra attacker. Brown's desperate defense bent practically all the way over, but never broke. A boarding call against the Bears produced a 6-on-4 situation with 16 seconds remaining, but even that extra advantage was not enough, and far less than winning, the Bears escaped with a 3-2 victory, enough to give them a 2-1 series win, ending RPI's dreams of a berth in the league semifinals for the first time since 2002.
With the loss, the Engineers are now at the mercy of the Pairwise Rankings to find out if their season will continue. The good news is that they are not done yet, but they do need a few things to go their way if they are to continue playing in the NCAA tournament in two weeks. Nothing to do now but wait and see if things fall into place as they did two years ago for a berth in the regionals.
Other junk - RPI dropped three spots from 16th to 19th in the national rankings due to their series loss to Brown. Other ranked ECAC teams include #2 Quinnipiac (beat Cornell 2 games to 1, down one with 27 first place votes, more than any other team), #11 Yale (swept SLU, up two), and #18 Union (swept Dartmouth, up one).
Mike Zalewski's three goals in the series gives him 12 for the season, which is the most for an RPI freshman since Kevin Croxton netted 15 in 2003. That ties him for the team lead in goals with Nick Bailen and Ryan Haggerty, making him the first freshman to lead the team in goals since Tyler Helfrich with 9 in 2008 (tied with senior Jonathan Ornelas).
Seth Appert is a finalist for the ECAC's Coach of the Year award. Player nominations have yet to be announced, but one has to suspect that Jason Kasdorf will be a finalist for both the Rookie of the Year and the Goaltender of the Year awards.
RPI had not lost at home for the first time since December in Game 1, snapping a nine-game winning streak.
ECAC Semifinals
#7 Brown vs. #1 Quinnipiac
#4 Union vs. #3 Yale
Mike Zalewski's three goals in the series gives him 12 for the season, which is the most for an RPI freshman since Kevin Croxton netted 15 in 2003. That ties him for the team lead in goals with Nick Bailen and Ryan Haggerty, making him the first freshman to lead the team in goals since Tyler Helfrich with 9 in 2008 (tied with senior Jonathan Ornelas).
Seth Appert is a finalist for the ECAC's Coach of the Year award. Player nominations have yet to be announced, but one has to suspect that Jason Kasdorf will be a finalist for both the Rookie of the Year and the Goaltender of the Year awards.
RPI had not lost at home for the first time since December in Game 1, snapping a nine-game winning streak.
ECAC Semifinals
#7 Brown vs. #1 Quinnipiac
#4 Union vs. #3 Yale
Brown at #16 RPI
ECAC Quarterfinal Game 1 - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
3/15/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: Brown 3, RPI 1
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
3/15/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: Brown 3, RPI 1
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
RECORD: 17-13-5 (12-7-3 ECAC, 27 points)
Brown at #16 RPI
Brown at #16 RPI
ECAC Quarterfinal Game 2 - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
3/16/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: RPI 6, Brown 2
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
3/16/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: RPI 6, Brown 2
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
RECORD: 18-13-5 (12-7-3 ECAC, 27 points)
Brown at #16 RPI
ECAC Quarterfinal Game 3 - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
3/17/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: Brown 3, RPI 2
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
3/17/13 - 7:00pm
RESULT: Brown 3, RPI 2
BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO
RECORD: 18-14-5 (12-7-3 ECAC, 27 points)
Upcoming games
29 Mar or 30 Mar - NCAA Regional (if qualified)
30 Mar or 31 Mar - NCAA Regional Final (if qualified)
11 Apr - NCAA Frozen Four (Pittsburgh, PA, if qualified)
13 Apr - NCAA Championship (Pittsburgh, PA, if qualified)
05 Oct - Exhibition Game
29 Mar or 30 Mar - NCAA Regional (if qualified)
30 Mar or 31 Mar - NCAA Regional Final (if qualified)
11 Apr - NCAA Frozen Four (Pittsburgh, PA, if qualified)
13 Apr - NCAA Championship (Pittsburgh, PA, if qualified)
05 Oct - Exhibition Game
Sunday, March 17, 2013
A Brief History of Time
Watching RPI these past two nights has been like watching the season unfold.
Friday, the team looked a lot like it did in November. Enough said.
Saturday, the first period looked like December. Playing well, but not getting the results you'd want to get out of that play.
The second period was like January - getting better and seeing more of the results you wanted to see, but with a few hiccups.
The third period was like February, with outstanding play that simply left the other team in the dust.
Let us hope that journey back to where the team had been prior to the bye week will continue tonight. As satisfying as it was to take Game 2 and as high as the team must be flying after a very solid and convincing win last night (despite horrifyingly bad officiating... again), we remain just 60 minutes away from the end of the season if the Engineers don't get the job done in Game 3.
Brown's likely All-ECAC goaltender was torched for five goals and pulled from the game for the second time in four games against RPI last night. Getting to him early and often to keep his confidence shaken will be key.
It's time to get back to it. A coveted trip to Atlantic City is on the line, and is now within the grasp. Let's get there.
Here's another Irish fighting song for the actual St. Patrick's Day, again from the Murphys. This one has the happy benefit of dovetailing with our typical playoff theme.
Friday, the team looked a lot like it did in November. Enough said.
Saturday, the first period looked like December. Playing well, but not getting the results you'd want to get out of that play.
The second period was like January - getting better and seeing more of the results you wanted to see, but with a few hiccups.
The third period was like February, with outstanding play that simply left the other team in the dust.
Let us hope that journey back to where the team had been prior to the bye week will continue tonight. As satisfying as it was to take Game 2 and as high as the team must be flying after a very solid and convincing win last night (despite horrifyingly bad officiating... again), we remain just 60 minutes away from the end of the season if the Engineers don't get the job done in Game 3.
Brown's likely All-ECAC goaltender was torched for five goals and pulled from the game for the second time in four games against RPI last night. Getting to him early and often to keep his confidence shaken will be key.
It's time to get back to it. A coveted trip to Atlantic City is on the line, and is now within the grasp. Let's get there.
Here's another Irish fighting song for the actual St. Patrick's Day, again from the Murphys. This one has the happy benefit of dovetailing with our typical playoff theme.
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