So close. And yet so far. The Engineers were literally 2:13 away from a season sweep of Quinnipiac that, beyond being improbable, may well have just always been impossible. They're very good. But how different is the Pairwise if Rensselaer's able to hold onto those very late leads? Well, the Engineers would be sitting in a tournament position right now (14th) - and the Bobcats wouldn't be a #1 seed, let alone the #1 overall (5th). It's a razor's edge, and it's easy to fall off the side of it. And while losing to Quinnipiac didn't really make Rensselaer fall, it ended up being a lost opportunity to climb the ladder.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. Boston College*
4. North Dakota
5. Providence
6. Michigan*
7. Yale
8. Denver
9. Notre Dame
10. Boston University
11. Omaha
12. Harvard
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Cornell
15. Penn State
16. Minnesota
18. Michigan Tech*
19. Rensselaer
23. Robert Morris*
In since last week: Cornell
Out since last week: Penn State
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Cornell
First out: Penn State, Minnesota
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 NCHC, 4 ECAC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Certainly feels like a losing effort, right? Farther back in the Pairwise again, we might as well wrap this all up. (Believe me, I wouldn't mind not having to do this.) But there's still some hope out there, and it can be found by taking a peep at the RPI cliff.
14. Cornell .534
15. Minnesota .532
16. Penn State .532
17. Michigan Tech .528
18. St. Lawrence .524
19. Rensselaer .524
20. Miami .523
--
21. Dartmouth .523
22. Robert Morris .523
23. Minnesota State .521
24. Northeastern .520
25. Clarkson .516
At this point, it's probably safe to write off Union becoming a quality win factor. We wanted them to go on a run in the ECAC, they did not, time's pretty much up. We're going to move on from them, but we're still rooting for them on Friday against Cornell for other reasons.
Really, the most important thing to see here right now is just how close teams around the Engineers are in RPI. These differences are extremely thin, so it's easy to see how quickly things can change, especially since basically every team on the list with the exception of Dartmouth and Clarkson (and Cornell, for now) are straight RPI comparisons. Just above this group is Minnesota at .532 and Cornell at .534. Catchable, and quickly. The area between about 14th and 27th or so in the Pairwise (including Bowling Green and Minnesota Duluth not on this list) could see serious upheaval these next two weekends.
That's a lot of teams fighting for, realistically, one or two spots at best - or potentially none at all if there's an upset or two in the conference championships. So all of this certainly puts a damper on expectations, but if the Engineers do well this weekend and then into the playoffs (can never stress enough how important it is to win your own games), the positioning is at least still there. Need to win games. Need a bit of help. But it's a near sight better than what most of the college hockey world is digesting about now.
Quality wins
Boston College (#4, at home)
Yale (#7, at home)
Harvard (#12, on the road)
Cornell (#14, at home)
St. Lawrence (#18, on the road)
Miami (#20, on the road)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#2, on the road)
Harvard (#12, at home)
Missed opportunities
Quinnipiac (#2, at home)
Michigan (#6, at home)
Yale (#7, on the road)
Harvard (#12, neutral ice)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Miami (#20, on the road)
Remaining opportunities
Cornell (#14, on the road) - Feb 27
The majority of comparisons that could be flipped soon are, as usual, straight RPI, and they're basically the teams listed above. But there are a few other considerations to check out.
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - The final COp games of the regular season for this comparison take place this week as the River Hawks face Boston College in a home-and-home. With the Boston College comparison effectively out of reach despite the H2H win, we can safely root for the Eagles to help keep the COp portion of this comparison locked out and hurt UML's RPI at the same time. Anything other than a UML sweep here helps bolster a COp victory for the Engineers, cancelling out the River Hawks' H2H win and keeping this an RPI comparison. Even if UML does sweep, COp remains tied. RPI doesn't appear to be flippable this week, but sweeps by the Engineers and Eagles would bring this awfully close heading into the playoffs.
Total COp: 3.000 each
Boston College: To be added (1.000 for Rensselaer)
Dartmouth (2 H2H losses) - Breathing room for the Engineers on COp. While we wanted the Big Green to beat Cornell last week to stop the Big Red from rising in the Pairwise, Dartmouth's loss did at least help this comparison by a slight amount. Since we need both RPI and COp to be going Rensselaer's way, keeping COp in the good is important - and that'll stay in the Engineers' favor through this weekend no matter what. RPI's still pretty close, though, so Dartmouth losses still help in that area - and this could still flip away from the Engineers on RPI in a big hurry.
Total COp: 7.000-5.750 Rensselaer
Colgate: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Cornell: 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer
St. Lawrence: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Clarkson: 1.000-0.250 Dartmouth
St. Lawrence (H2H split) - Straight RPI here, but there's a catch. Dartmouth and St. Lawrence play each other on Friday, and the winner stands to gain serious traction on the Engineers no matter what happens in their game, given how close they are to each other and to Rensselaer in RPI as seen above. However, a tie between the two teams should keep both of them at bay and allow Rensselaer the chance to improve on both teams with a win.
Clarkson (H2H loss) - Really not much of a worry here right now as long as the Engineers can take care of their own business this week. There's some separation on both RPI and COp, both of which Rensselaer needs to win to pin down this comparison. Here's COp for the week. A worst case scenario would see it tied at 8.000 after the weekend and flipping the comparison back to the Golden Knights (2-0 on RPI/H2H), but honestly, if that happens, we're probably not doing EB next week because the Engineers got swept.
Total COp: 8.750-7.500 Rensselaer
Colgate: 0.500 each
Cornell: 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer
Harvard: 1.000-0.500 Clarkson
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Cornell (H2H win) - Not going to delve too far into Cornell this week. They're winning on very thin RPI/COp margins right now, but since there's another H2H on Saturday, this could flip pretty quick just by the Engineers' own hand with a win. As a reminder, there's no functional difference between 1 H2H win and 2 H2H wins (the other side still has to win both RPI/COp to win the comparison), so that's not really a big deal should Rensselaer prevail, it's a bigger concern if they lose because then it's straight RPI and it's an RPI benefit to the Big Red while being an RPI drag to the Engineers simultaneously. The game on Saturday is of utmost importance if Rensselaer's going to have a shot at an at-large bid.
For the cheering section this weekend, it's worth pointing out that much of what is beneficial to the Engineers in the Pairwise runs semi-counter to what they need to happen for ECAC positioning. For instance, the best case scenario for the Engineers in the ECAC on Friday night are wins by Dartmouth and Clarkson, but those aren't as good for the Pairwise. The whole Dartmouth/Harvard at SLU/Clarkson weekend still being a thing that has to happen is really the biggest problem the Engineers have on both the Pairwise and ECAC fronts.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference (no longer applicable, just keeping it for continuity's sake)
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Tonight
Bentley over American International - 5
Friday
Union over Cornell - 4
Harvard over Clarkson - 4
Dartmouth ties St. Lawrence - 4
Weekend series
Michigan over Minnesota - 4/5
Boston College over UMass-Lowell - 1/3/4/5
Maine over Northeastern - 4
Western Michigan over Denver - 5
Bentley over Army - 5
New Hampshire over UConn - 5
Alaska over Michigan Tech - 4/5
Canisius over Robert Morris - 4
Colorado College over Miami - 4
St. Cloud State over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Minnesota State - 4/5
Saturday
Clarkson over Dartmouth - 4
Harvard over St. Lawrence - 4
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Showing posts with label pairwise rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pairwise rankings. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 7
Well, the Engineers are certainly still hanging around. The win over Harvard boosted them up as one of the best RPI-inducing wins of the year for Rensselaer, they got some good results elsewhere, and they managed to weather the loss to Dartmouth too.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Boston College*
5. Providence
6. Michigan*
7. Notre Dame
8. Denver
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. Harvard
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Penn State
15. St. Lawrence
16. Minnesota
17. Rensselaer
19. Michigan Tech*
25. Robert Morris*
In since last week: Penn State
Out since last week: Cornell
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Penn State
First out: St. Lawrence, Minnesota
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 NCHC, 3 ECAC, 2 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
For the record, we've got Boston College vs. Penn State and Providence vs. Harvard in Albany this week.
Moving on to the QWB cliff. Bear in mind that when it comes to quality wins, right now the top QWB-boosted team in the nation is Boston University, whose boost is .0076. The overall impact of this boost is diminished because every other team they are competing with in Pairwise has some kind of QWB boost (only 11 teams don't have a quality win or tie, and none are in the Top 30). For instance, when compared to Boston College (.0070 QWB), it's only a net benefit of .0006 extra in the RPI, which is almost nothing.
And to fully compare, a win for Rensselaer over Quinnipiac, before considering any other result, would boost their RPI by 0.043 - exactly the amount of their current QWB from five quality wins and two quality ties. So in the grand scheme of things, wins and losses are more important than QWB - but it's nice to have and is a component worth looking at. So here's the cliff.
16. Michigan Tech .529
17. St. Lawrence .529
18. Rensselaer .526
19. Dartmouth .525
20. Cornell .525
--
21. Clarkson .524
22. Miami .522
23. Robert Morris .521
24. Minnesota Duluth .521
25. Minnesota State .520
Union remains in "it could happen" striking range at 29th in RPI, but it's looking less and less likely as time goes by. Even a weekend sweep this weekend (including Quinnipiac on Saturday) would probably not move them up more than a couple of spots. One thing that could help Union move up farther would be teams in front of them in RPI losing. Most of them are already on our "rooting against" list anyway, but we can probably add 26-28 RPI - Bowling Green, Northeastern, and Ferris State.
Quality wins
Boston College (#4, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Harvard (#12, on the road)
St. Lawrence (#17, on the road)
Cornell (#20, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#2, on the road)
Harvard (#12, at home)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#6, at home)
Yale (#10, on the road)
Harvard (#12, neutral ice)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Dartmouth (#19, at home and on the road)
Remaining opportunities
Quinnipiac (#2, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#20, on the road) - Feb 27
Yes, Quinnipiac is now #2 in RPI, though they remain in first in the Pairwise entirely on the strength of their two-game sweep of St. Cloud State in October. They're still a solid QWB haul, even at home. Needless to say, an upset win on Friday would be pretty outstanding.
Looking around, there actually aren't really too many comparisons to look at this week. BC is untouchable on COp right now, the Michigan comparison is now all but unwinnable thanks to Rensselaer's loss to Dartmouth on Saturday (although it was always a huge longshot anyway), and UML is still 100% RPI until the playoffs, as are Yale, St. Lawrence, and Harvard. And, as always, teams that are not on the Engineers' schedule are always 100% RPI.
Dartmouth (2 H2H losses) - With the Big Green having swept the Engineers this season in league play, that pretty much solidifies this as an RPI/COp requirement for Rensselaer to win this comparison. They have that now, but it's by razor-thin margins on both. This, essentially, makes Dartmouth Public Enemy #1 when it comes to the Engineers and their NCAA at-large hopes.
But there's a catch - and again, it's in Dartmouth's own comparisons with other teams. While Union's win over the Big Green on Friday helped drag down Dartmouth's PWR positioning by keeping Vermont in the driver's seat on their comparison with the Big Green, Dartmouth has a comparison that they themselves are currently winning against a team ahead of them in the Pairwise - Cornell. And that's a win that's actually helping the Engineers for the time being (and possibly into the future). And wouldn't you know, they play each other this coming Saturday in Hanover. More on that in a moment.
Total COp: 7.000-6.250 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Colgate: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Cornell: 1.000 each
Cornell (H2H win) - The win keeps this one a 3-0 comparison victory for the Engineers, but with Cornell so close in the PWR (18th, just below Rensselaer) and both RPI and COp being so close, it's probably worth rooting against Cornell where possible.
The rub, as discussed above, is in their game with Dartmouth, and the potential impact of that game on the Cornell-Dartmouth comparison. The Big Red lose this comparison right now on COp/H2H. A Cornell victory would cancel out the H2H and return this to a straight RPI comparison, thereby flipping it back. Bearing in mind that we also want Dartmouth to lose games (Public Enemy #1, remember?), that makes this one a toughie to call.
Looking at the COp breakdown below, a Cornell win would boost the Big Red's COp against the Engineers by 0.500, something the Engineers could only hope to match by sweeping Quinnipiac and Princeton for +0.250 each. And even then, Cornell can also gain 0.500 by beating Harvard on Friday.
Now looking above at Dartmouth's COp breakdown, we see that the Big Green are utterly unable to improve their COp standing against the Engineers on their own. A weekend sweep still leaves them at 6.250. They would depend on losses by Rensselaer to improve the comparison. Even the Engineers being swept still leaves Rensselaer leading in COp 6.500 to 6.250 (although RPI would probably flip it to the Big Green anyway).
It seems like there's a lot less danger in taking Dartmouth to beat Cornell, overall. Yes, Cornell would almost certainly drop out of the top 20 in RPI, but for future positioning it's a safer bet, especially if the Engineers pick up a win or a tie against Quinnipiac at home on Friday first. Otherwise, this game becomes a complete minefield that's pretty much impossible to avoid getting blown up.
Total COp: 5.000-4.750 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.250 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
Harvard: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Clarkson (H2H loss) - Both teams last week gained the same amount in COp (0.250), so we're basically just where we were last weekend with the Golden Knights comparison. Again, the Engineers must keep winning in both RPI and COp to claim this one, and they are right now. Extra reason to root against Clarkson, besides PWR and ECAC positioning and the obvious (being Clarkson).
Total COp: 8.750-8.250 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.250 Rensselaer
Princeton: 0.500 each
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Clarkson
Yale: 0.500 each
Miami (H2H split) - Going to talk about the RedHawks here in part because they're making a late season run and becoming relevant in the Pairwise. For the purposes of straight up Pairwise, Miami might as well be treated like a team the Engineers didn't play this year, because the series was split and the two H2H results cancel each other out. But the win Rensselaer has over Miami is a road win, and so the potential QWB bonus is heightened a bit and could come into play - even while the RedHawks start to reach the point where they're a potential rival for NCAA positioning.
It's a difficult balance - but ultimately, a Rensselaer sweep and a Miami sweep would likely still move the RedHawks ahead of the Engineers in the PWR on RPI. So it's tough to flat out root for Miami this weekend against Western Michigan (who also happens to be a past opponent). A split might work well for both sides of the ledger, but a WMU sweep would be preferable to a Miami sweep, despite the potential for improving Rensselaer's QWB.
As we get into this weekend's cheering section, it's probably worth pointing out that there's not a lot of room for growth this week. With Minnesota not playing this week and UMass-Lowell only playing one game (that they're likely to win), there's not a lot of solid potential for damaging their RPI. The only comparisons that could reasonably be flipped this week (while not seeing others below flipped against) are St. Lawrence and Penn State. That would move the Engineers ahead of both and probably the Gophers as well, but any further would be difficult. Haven't seen a scenario where the Engineers move any higher than 14th after the coming weekend.
By the way, interesting little nugget - if we get exactly what we're looking for from the cheering section this week, Quinnipiac would fall all the way to 5th in the PWR. That'd be a shakeup (and unlikely).
Just to stress once again: nothing helps the Engineers more than winning their own games against all comers, from #1 PWR Quinnipiac to #55 Princeton this weekend. We're deep enough into the season that it's basically impossible to lose and still rise in the Pairwise. But where they end up in the PWR in relation to their own results is heavily influenced on what goes on elsewhere.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Brown over Clarkson - 1/4
Harvard over Cornell - 1/3/4
Union over Princeton - 3
Yale over St. Lawrence - 3/4
Colgate over Dartmouth - 1/4
UMass over UMass-Lowell - 4
Weekend series
Colorado College over Denver - 4
Ohio State over Penn State - 4
Western Michigan over Miami - 4/5
Boston College over Vermont - 3/5
Michigan over Ferris State - 5
New Hampshire over Boston University - 5
North Dakota over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Bemidji State over Michigan Tech - 4
Air Force over Robert Morris - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Lake Superior State - 5
Alaska over Bowling Green - 5
UConn over Northeastern - 3
Saturday
Brown over St. Lawrence - 4
Yale over Clarkson - 3/4
Harvard over Colgate - 3 (the reverse is probably just fine, preferable for the ECAC race)
Dartmouth over Cornell - 1/4
Union over Quinnipiac - 3
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Saturday, February 20: Cornell at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Boston College*
5. Providence
6. Michigan*
7. Notre Dame
8. Denver
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. Harvard
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Penn State
15. St. Lawrence
16. Minnesota
17. Rensselaer
19. Michigan Tech*
25. Robert Morris*
In since last week: Penn State
Out since last week: Cornell
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Penn State
First out: St. Lawrence, Minnesota
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 NCHC, 3 ECAC, 2 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
For the record, we've got Boston College vs. Penn State and Providence vs. Harvard in Albany this week.
Moving on to the QWB cliff. Bear in mind that when it comes to quality wins, right now the top QWB-boosted team in the nation is Boston University, whose boost is .0076. The overall impact of this boost is diminished because every other team they are competing with in Pairwise has some kind of QWB boost (only 11 teams don't have a quality win or tie, and none are in the Top 30). For instance, when compared to Boston College (.0070 QWB), it's only a net benefit of .0006 extra in the RPI, which is almost nothing.
And to fully compare, a win for Rensselaer over Quinnipiac, before considering any other result, would boost their RPI by 0.043 - exactly the amount of their current QWB from five quality wins and two quality ties. So in the grand scheme of things, wins and losses are more important than QWB - but it's nice to have and is a component worth looking at. So here's the cliff.
16. Michigan Tech .529
17. St. Lawrence .529
18. Rensselaer .526
19. Dartmouth .525
20. Cornell .525
--
21. Clarkson .524
22. Miami .522
23. Robert Morris .521
24. Minnesota Duluth .521
25. Minnesota State .520
Union remains in "it could happen" striking range at 29th in RPI, but it's looking less and less likely as time goes by. Even a weekend sweep this weekend (including Quinnipiac on Saturday) would probably not move them up more than a couple of spots. One thing that could help Union move up farther would be teams in front of them in RPI losing. Most of them are already on our "rooting against" list anyway, but we can probably add 26-28 RPI - Bowling Green, Northeastern, and Ferris State.
Quality wins
Boston College (#4, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Harvard (#12, on the road)
St. Lawrence (#17, on the road)
Cornell (#20, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#2, on the road)
Harvard (#12, at home)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#6, at home)
Yale (#10, on the road)
Harvard (#12, neutral ice)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Dartmouth (#19, at home and on the road)
Remaining opportunities
Quinnipiac (#2, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#20, on the road) - Feb 27
Yes, Quinnipiac is now #2 in RPI, though they remain in first in the Pairwise entirely on the strength of their two-game sweep of St. Cloud State in October. They're still a solid QWB haul, even at home. Needless to say, an upset win on Friday would be pretty outstanding.
Looking around, there actually aren't really too many comparisons to look at this week. BC is untouchable on COp right now, the Michigan comparison is now all but unwinnable thanks to Rensselaer's loss to Dartmouth on Saturday (although it was always a huge longshot anyway), and UML is still 100% RPI until the playoffs, as are Yale, St. Lawrence, and Harvard. And, as always, teams that are not on the Engineers' schedule are always 100% RPI.
Dartmouth (2 H2H losses) - With the Big Green having swept the Engineers this season in league play, that pretty much solidifies this as an RPI/COp requirement for Rensselaer to win this comparison. They have that now, but it's by razor-thin margins on both. This, essentially, makes Dartmouth Public Enemy #1 when it comes to the Engineers and their NCAA at-large hopes.
But there's a catch - and again, it's in Dartmouth's own comparisons with other teams. While Union's win over the Big Green on Friday helped drag down Dartmouth's PWR positioning by keeping Vermont in the driver's seat on their comparison with the Big Green, Dartmouth has a comparison that they themselves are currently winning against a team ahead of them in the Pairwise - Cornell. And that's a win that's actually helping the Engineers for the time being (and possibly into the future). And wouldn't you know, they play each other this coming Saturday in Hanover. More on that in a moment.
Total COp: 7.000-6.250 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Colgate: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Cornell: 1.000 each
Cornell (H2H win) - The win keeps this one a 3-0 comparison victory for the Engineers, but with Cornell so close in the PWR (18th, just below Rensselaer) and both RPI and COp being so close, it's probably worth rooting against Cornell where possible.
The rub, as discussed above, is in their game with Dartmouth, and the potential impact of that game on the Cornell-Dartmouth comparison. The Big Red lose this comparison right now on COp/H2H. A Cornell victory would cancel out the H2H and return this to a straight RPI comparison, thereby flipping it back. Bearing in mind that we also want Dartmouth to lose games (Public Enemy #1, remember?), that makes this one a toughie to call.
Looking at the COp breakdown below, a Cornell win would boost the Big Red's COp against the Engineers by 0.500, something the Engineers could only hope to match by sweeping Quinnipiac and Princeton for +0.250 each. And even then, Cornell can also gain 0.500 by beating Harvard on Friday.
Now looking above at Dartmouth's COp breakdown, we see that the Big Green are utterly unable to improve their COp standing against the Engineers on their own. A weekend sweep still leaves them at 6.250. They would depend on losses by Rensselaer to improve the comparison. Even the Engineers being swept still leaves Rensselaer leading in COp 6.500 to 6.250 (although RPI would probably flip it to the Big Green anyway).
It seems like there's a lot less danger in taking Dartmouth to beat Cornell, overall. Yes, Cornell would almost certainly drop out of the top 20 in RPI, but for future positioning it's a safer bet, especially if the Engineers pick up a win or a tie against Quinnipiac at home on Friday first. Otherwise, this game becomes a complete minefield that's pretty much impossible to avoid getting blown up.
Total COp: 5.000-4.750 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.250 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
Harvard: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Clarkson (H2H loss) - Both teams last week gained the same amount in COp (0.250), so we're basically just where we were last weekend with the Golden Knights comparison. Again, the Engineers must keep winning in both RPI and COp to claim this one, and they are right now. Extra reason to root against Clarkson, besides PWR and ECAC positioning and the obvious (being Clarkson).
Total COp: 8.750-8.250 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.250 Rensselaer
Princeton: 0.500 each
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Clarkson
Yale: 0.500 each
It's a difficult balance - but ultimately, a Rensselaer sweep and a Miami sweep would likely still move the RedHawks ahead of the Engineers in the PWR on RPI. So it's tough to flat out root for Miami this weekend against Western Michigan (who also happens to be a past opponent). A split might work well for both sides of the ledger, but a WMU sweep would be preferable to a Miami sweep, despite the potential for improving Rensselaer's QWB.
As we get into this weekend's cheering section, it's probably worth pointing out that there's not a lot of room for growth this week. With Minnesota not playing this week and UMass-Lowell only playing one game (that they're likely to win), there's not a lot of solid potential for damaging their RPI. The only comparisons that could reasonably be flipped this week (while not seeing others below flipped against) are St. Lawrence and Penn State. That would move the Engineers ahead of both and probably the Gophers as well, but any further would be difficult. Haven't seen a scenario where the Engineers move any higher than 14th after the coming weekend.
By the way, interesting little nugget - if we get exactly what we're looking for from the cheering section this week, Quinnipiac would fall all the way to 5th in the PWR. That'd be a shakeup (and unlikely).
Just to stress once again: nothing helps the Engineers more than winning their own games against all comers, from #1 PWR Quinnipiac to #55 Princeton this weekend. We're deep enough into the season that it's basically impossible to lose and still rise in the Pairwise. But where they end up in the PWR in relation to their own results is heavily influenced on what goes on elsewhere.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Brown over Clarkson - 1/4
Harvard over Cornell - 1/3/4
Union over Princeton - 3
Yale over St. Lawrence - 3/4
Colgate over Dartmouth - 1/4
UMass over UMass-Lowell - 4
Weekend series
Colorado College over Denver - 4
Ohio State over Penn State - 4
Western Michigan over Miami - 4/5
Boston College over Vermont - 3/5
Michigan over Ferris State - 5
New Hampshire over Boston University - 5
North Dakota over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Bemidji State over Michigan Tech - 4
Air Force over Robert Morris - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Lake Superior State - 5
Alaska over Bowling Green - 5
UConn over Northeastern - 3
Saturday
Brown over St. Lawrence - 4
Yale over Clarkson - 3/4
Harvard over Colgate - 3 (the reverse is probably just fine, preferable for the ECAC race)
Dartmouth over Cornell - 1/4
Union over Quinnipiac - 3
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Saturday, February 20: Cornell at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 6
The past few weeks, we got a few comments, mostly from those who couldn't wrap their minds around the concept of bracketology. Usually went something like this: "well, all we have to do is win and everything will be fine." And then the team gets swept at home and there's a serious drop and they smirk and think they were right.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota*
4. Boston College*
5. Providence
6. Michigan*
7. Notre Dame
8. Boston University
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Harvard
12. Denver
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Cornell
15. Penn State
16. Dartmouth
19. Robert Morris*
20. Rensselaer
21. Minnesota State*
In since last week: Cornell
Out since last week: Rensselaer
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Cornell
First out: Penn State, Dartmouth
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota*
4. Boston College*
5. Providence
6. Michigan*
7. Notre Dame
8. Boston University
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Harvard
12. Denver
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Cornell
15. Penn State
16. Dartmouth
19. Robert Morris*
20. Rensselaer
21. Minnesota State*
In since last week: Cornell
Out since last week: Rensselaer
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Cornell
First out: Penn State, Dartmouth
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
After Saturday, the Engineers dropped off significantly - down eight spots from the 14th they were in last week. Last night brought some slight redemption as Bemidji State's win over Minnesota Duluth moved the Engineers up two slots (based on Duluth's RPI drop and the Engineers moving ahead of Minnesota in PWR).
So, is the party over? Possibly. But possibly not. Dropping eight spots in one night is tough to deal with. But when you can rise two on a night you're not even playing, there's still some daylight there somewhere. Especially when you consider what else happened over the weekend. It wasn't just the Engineers losing (although that did hurt too, of course).
Cornell tied Quinnipiac on their way to a three point weekend. Robert Morris, Clarkson and Michigan Tech swept the weekend. If some of that changes a little, the drop off isn't nearly as precipitous. In fact, it was fairly easy to find a scenario in which the Engineers only dropped a couple of spots despite getting swept, simply by changing other results.
In lieu of a bracket this week, here's the analysis on the regionals and ticket sales that I promised last week. Hosts are in parentheses.
Worcester (Holy Cross): The Crusaders are probably the only host team that doesn't bring with it at least 3,000 in ticket sales. They might provide a minor bump, but that's pale in comparison to basically any Hockey East team that is placed here. Worcester rarely has a problem selling tickets because there's practically always a BC, BU, UNH, or Providence that will end up at the DCU Center. Quinnipiac based on previous experiences in New England would draw well here too, good news since they're likely to be the #1 overall seed - or at least the top eastern seed - and be sent here.
Albany (Union): Usually the NCAA tries to put an ECAC team here, which can be hit or miss. The hosts would probably draw well enough anyway given their recent successes, and you have to think Rensselaer (local, big crowd for the Mayor's Cup) and Cornell (great regional traveling) are high on the list too, and to a lesser extent Clarkson and St. Lawrence. RIT has done well in Albany in the past, and Quinnipiac certainly wouldn't disappoint either given the season they're having. The larger-following Hockey East schools would probably do well here too, like BC or BU.
Cincinnati (Miami): The hosts probably work well here (although they didn't do much for Toledo in 2013), and they'll probably try and get teams like Notre Dame and Michigan here, although they're far from a sure thing. This is likely to be the most difficult of the four venues to sell. While in the past there were good examples of teams that could draw anywhere, we've seen examples in the recent past with Cornell and North Dakota (previously thought to be more or less silver bullets) where this hasn't been the case, in Green Bay and Grand Rapids respectively.
St. Paul (Minnesota): The Gophers would pretty much guarantee a full or mostly full house, but St. Paul has done well with any of the old traditional WCHA powers of the midwest - St. Cloud State and/or North Dakota would also guarantee a good gate. Pretty much any team that ever brought lots of fans to the old WCHA Final Five (held in the same building) would work, including Minnesota Duluth and Wisconsin.
So... what happens now? Well, a whole bunch of comparisons flipped over the weekend. Nearly all of them - Dartmouth and now Clarkson the exceptions - revolve entirely around RPI. And all of them are still close on RPI.
The enemies list basically reads like this:
16. Dartmouth .531
17. Michigan Tech .529
18. Clarkson .527
19. Robert Morris .526
20. Bowling Green .525
--
21. Minnesota State .525
22. Minnesota .525
23. Rensselaer .523
24. St. Lawrence .522
25. Minnesota Duluth .519
Look how close pretty much all of those teams are. That's proof positive that there's still some hope out there. The bad news? On QWB, there's not a whole lot of help that's imminently available. Union's got one win in their last nine games, and they're now sitting 30th in RPI. That's a pretty far way off from those three wins being able to pay off again.
Quality wins
Boston College (#4, at home)
Yale (#11, at home)
Cornell (#14, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#2, on the road)
Harvard (#9, at home)
Clarkson (#18, on the road)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#6, at home)
Harvard (#9, neutral ice)
Yale (#11, on the road)
Clarkson (#18, at home)
Remaining opportunities
Harvard (#9, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#16, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#2, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#14, on the road) - Feb 27
The Engineers have the opportunity to pick up some QWB points in four of their last six games - including three of them on the road and the other against a jackpot of points at home. They've got some room to come back if they can find some of what made them successful against strong teams earlier in the year.
A few interesting comparisons out there still.
St. Paul (Minnesota): The Gophers would pretty much guarantee a full or mostly full house, but St. Paul has done well with any of the old traditional WCHA powers of the midwest - St. Cloud State and/or North Dakota would also guarantee a good gate. Pretty much any team that ever brought lots of fans to the old WCHA Final Five (held in the same building) would work, including Minnesota Duluth and Wisconsin.
So... what happens now? Well, a whole bunch of comparisons flipped over the weekend. Nearly all of them - Dartmouth and now Clarkson the exceptions - revolve entirely around RPI. And all of them are still close on RPI.
The enemies list basically reads like this:
- UMass-Lowell
- Cornell
- Penn State
- Dartmouth
- Clarkson
- Minnesota Duluth
- Robert Morris
- Michigan Tech
- Minnesota
- Bowling Green
- Minnesota State
Most of these were already familiar. May want to toss St. Lawrence in for good measure. Given the right set of circumstances, the Engineers could finish the coming week's games ahead of every single one of these teams (it helps already being ahead of four of them). It's unlikely, but it's possible. Observe the RPI cliff - which, really, is more of an RPI slope.
16. Dartmouth .531
17. Michigan Tech .529
18. Clarkson .527
19. Robert Morris .526
20. Bowling Green .525
--
21. Minnesota State .525
22. Minnesota .525
23. Rensselaer .523
24. St. Lawrence .522
25. Minnesota Duluth .519
Look how close pretty much all of those teams are. That's proof positive that there's still some hope out there. The bad news? On QWB, there's not a whole lot of help that's imminently available. Union's got one win in their last nine games, and they're now sitting 30th in RPI. That's a pretty far way off from those three wins being able to pay off again.
Quality wins
Boston College (#4, at home)
Yale (#11, at home)
Cornell (#14, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#2, on the road)
Harvard (#9, at home)
Clarkson (#18, on the road)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#6, at home)
Harvard (#9, neutral ice)
Yale (#11, on the road)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Dartmouth (#16, at home)Clarkson (#18, at home)
Remaining opportunities
Harvard (#9, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#16, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#2, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#14, on the road) - Feb 27
The Engineers have the opportunity to pick up some QWB points in four of their last six games - including three of them on the road and the other against a jackpot of points at home. They've got some room to come back if they can find some of what made them successful against strong teams earlier in the year.
A few interesting comparisons out there still.
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - If there was any seriously good news to be derived from the Pairwise results this week, it would be in New Hampshire's win over the River Hawks on Saturday night. Despite the Engineers' loss to Clarkson on Saturday, UML's loss moves COp here into a tie (3.000-3.000) - the River Hawks lost 0.500 off their COp total with their loss, while Rensselaer lost only 0.250 with theirs.
So for all of the comparisons that now need to be flipped back, at least the UML comparison now counts as one that can be flipped on RPI. Before the possibility of playoff games (between Rensselaer and either Brown or Clarkson, and between UML and UNH), UML now cannot win the COp criteria, even once they play Boston College (adds 1.000 for Rensselaer, meaning UML would need a sweep just to keep pace), which effectively cancels out the impact of their H2H win and makes this comparison revolve completely around RPI. That's a positive development.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - A win on Saturday is important if only because it would make this very relevant comparison hinge on RPI alone once again, which would be nice. A second H2H loss actually doesn't change much about this (or any) comparison other than the RPI drop, since it doesn't change the metric - winning 2-2 on RPI/COp is the same as winning 2-1 on RPI/COp. Because of the head-to-head matchup and the reminder that we were rooting for Union on Friday anyway for sundry reasons (remember the drag on Dartmouth from their comparison with Vermont), we'll forgo a COp look this week and see if it's still relevant next week (assuming bracketology itself is still relevant).
Clarkson (H2H loss) - The Freakout! loss complicates this comparison, which now must be won on RPI/COp. Right now, that's 8.500-8.000 Engineers, and they're slightly behind on RPI. Rooting against Clarkson extra hard this weekend since they have potential to improve COp in both of their games. The Engineers do as well.
Total COp: 8.500-8.000 Rensselaer
Harvard: 1.000-0.250 Clarkson
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Princeton: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.500 each
Cornell (H2H win) - With the H2H win, this one can be flipped back on COp, as we've mentioned. The situation this week - the Engineers can only improve COp against Dartmouth, while Cornell can only lose COp against Brown. Either could gain or lose in their other matchup of the week, which makes the Dartmouth game, again, the more important element.
Total COp: 5.250-4.750 Rensselaer
Harvard: 0.250-0.000 Rensselaer
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Cornell
Yale: 0.500 each
Michigan (H2H loss) - Really nothing going on here, it's more of a footnote. There's no scenario where this gets flipped down the road without RPI flipping, and RPI's not even remotely close to flipping. But COp needs to flip too, and the Rensselaer/Dartmouth game would play into that. If the Engineers beat or tie the Big Green, they'll handle the COp end of things for now - permanently unless they lose to Dartmouth or Union in the playoffs. If they lose, this becomes an unflippable comparison unless the Engineers face (and beat) the Big Green in March.
Total COp: 1.250-1.000 Michigan
Dartmouth: 0.750-0.000 Michigan
Minnesota (straight RPI) - There's something interesting about the Gophers. Their horrifyingly bad record against in-state opponents (1-7-0) is hamstringing them big time. While their comparison loss to #2 PWR St. Cloud State shouldn't be too surprising, their losses to Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth, and Bemidji State are direct results of their terrible records against those teams. In fact, the Golden Gophers are guaranteed to lose all four comparisons no matter what else happens this season - because the Minnesota teams all play each other and are therefore all common opponents. That's keeping the Engineers ahead of the Gophers right now despite the fact that Minnesota wins the comparison with Rensselaer at present AND the Engineers have that pesky UAA loss they can't get rid of.
Before this week's cheering section, a quick note - if the weekend plays out poorly again, this may be the last bracketology session for the time being. I'm playing it like this: if I can't find a scenario whereby the Engineers are back in the Top 16 by the end of the following weekend, I won't bother with a bracketology look. At that point it's probably ECAC championship or bust.
So for all of the comparisons that now need to be flipped back, at least the UML comparison now counts as one that can be flipped on RPI. Before the possibility of playoff games (between Rensselaer and either Brown or Clarkson, and between UML and UNH), UML now cannot win the COp criteria, even once they play Boston College (adds 1.000 for Rensselaer, meaning UML would need a sweep just to keep pace), which effectively cancels out the impact of their H2H win and makes this comparison revolve completely around RPI. That's a positive development.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - A win on Saturday is important if only because it would make this very relevant comparison hinge on RPI alone once again, which would be nice. A second H2H loss actually doesn't change much about this (or any) comparison other than the RPI drop, since it doesn't change the metric - winning 2-2 on RPI/COp is the same as winning 2-1 on RPI/COp. Because of the head-to-head matchup and the reminder that we were rooting for Union on Friday anyway for sundry reasons (remember the drag on Dartmouth from their comparison with Vermont), we'll forgo a COp look this week and see if it's still relevant next week (assuming bracketology itself is still relevant).
Clarkson (H2H loss) - The Freakout! loss complicates this comparison, which now must be won on RPI/COp. Right now, that's 8.500-8.000 Engineers, and they're slightly behind on RPI. Rooting against Clarkson extra hard this weekend since they have potential to improve COp in both of their games. The Engineers do as well.
Total COp: 8.500-8.000 Rensselaer
Harvard: 1.000-0.250 Clarkson
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Princeton: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.500 each
Cornell (H2H win) - With the H2H win, this one can be flipped back on COp, as we've mentioned. The situation this week - the Engineers can only improve COp against Dartmouth, while Cornell can only lose COp against Brown. Either could gain or lose in their other matchup of the week, which makes the Dartmouth game, again, the more important element.
Total COp: 5.250-4.750 Rensselaer
Harvard: 0.250-0.000 Rensselaer
Dartmouth: 0.000 each
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Cornell
Yale: 0.500 each
Michigan (H2H loss) - Really nothing going on here, it's more of a footnote. There's no scenario where this gets flipped down the road without RPI flipping, and RPI's not even remotely close to flipping. But COp needs to flip too, and the Rensselaer/Dartmouth game would play into that. If the Engineers beat or tie the Big Green, they'll handle the COp end of things for now - permanently unless they lose to Dartmouth or Union in the playoffs. If they lose, this becomes an unflippable comparison unless the Engineers face (and beat) the Big Green in March.
Total COp: 1.250-1.000 Michigan
Dartmouth: 0.750-0.000 Michigan
Minnesota (straight RPI) - There's something interesting about the Gophers. Their horrifyingly bad record against in-state opponents (1-7-0) is hamstringing them big time. While their comparison loss to #2 PWR St. Cloud State shouldn't be too surprising, their losses to Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth, and Bemidji State are direct results of their terrible records against those teams. In fact, the Golden Gophers are guaranteed to lose all four comparisons no matter what else happens this season - because the Minnesota teams all play each other and are therefore all common opponents. That's keeping the Engineers ahead of the Gophers right now despite the fact that Minnesota wins the comparison with Rensselaer at present AND the Engineers have that pesky UAA loss they can't get rid of.
Before this week's cheering section, a quick note - if the weekend plays out poorly again, this may be the last bracketology session for the time being. I'm playing it like this: if I can't find a scenario whereby the Engineers are back in the Top 16 by the end of the following weekend, I won't bother with a bracketology look. At that point it's probably ECAC championship or bust.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Union over Dartmouth - 1/3/4
Princeton over Clarkson - 1/4
Yale over Colgate - 3
Brown over Cornell - 4
Quinnipiac over St. Lawrence - 4
Weekend series
Boston University over UMass-Lowell - 4
Miami over Bowling Green - 3/4/5
Western Michigan over Omaha - 5
Ohio State over Minnesota - 4
Michigan State over Penn State - 4
Boston College over Merrimack - 3/5
New Hampshire over Vermont - 5 (if Dartmouth beats or ties Union, might want UVM to pull out at least one win)
Bentley over Canisius - 5
Army over Robert Morris - 4
Alabama-Huntsville over Minnesota State - 4
Saturday
Union over Harvard - 3
Princeton over St. Lawrence - 4
Quinnipiac over Clarkson - 1/4
Yale over Cornell - 3/4
Tuesday
American International over UMass-Lowell - 4
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, February 12: Union at Dartmouth
Saturday, February 13: Rensselaer at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 5
We've said it before - if you're going to lose, lose to a good team. After snatching victory from the jaws of (a bad) defeat on Friday, the Engineers did finally lose for the first time in nearly a month, and it was to a good team.
And lo and behold, enough good things happened elsewhere to move the Institute up into the presumed NCAA field - albeit barely, and very much being on the bubble, easily burst if there are any upsets in conference tournaments.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Michigan*
5. Boston College*
6. Providence
7. Harvard
8. Boston University
9. Omaha
10. Notre Dame
11. UMass-Lowell
12. Denver
13. Yale
14. Rensselaer
15. Dartmouth
16. Cornell
18. Minnesota State*
22. Robert Morris*
In since last week: Rensselaer
Out since last week: Cornell
Last in: Yale, Rensselaer
First out: Dartmouth, Cornell
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
OK, so we get to bracket the Engineers into the NCAA tournament for the first time. Here's what we've come up with.
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Boston University
3. Omaha
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Harvard
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Providence
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Yale
Albany
1. Michigan
2. Boston College
3. Denver
4. Rensselaer
Rematches, anyone?
First off, a couple of explanations. Yes, there is an all-Hockey East game in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati, but this is allowed under the NCAA's rules. With five Hockey East teams in the tournament, especially with all five being 2 and 3 seeds, it's pretty much unavoidable. To preserve bracket integrity, there does have to be one Hockey East matchup. So it's the Friars and River Hawks.
The rest of the bracket is actually fairly perfect integrity-wise, with the exception of the Engineers being swapped with Yale. A perfectly made bracket would have Rensselaer in Cincinnati against North Dakota (which is awfully familiar). Our expectation is that if the committee can find a way to put an NCAA-bound Rensselaer team in Albany, they're going to try to do that. In this case, it's not that radical of a decision to do it this way. Cincinnati is a tickets problem, but there's no really good way to remedy that here. (We'll talk a little bit about ticket sales next week.)
That's not to say that there might not be situations where the Engineers might end up in a different regional - it's more that this scenario just makes it easy to make the change. Personally, I think they ought to just call Rensselaer a host and keep them there anyway, only giving primacy to Union if both teams are in the tournament, but that's apparently not what's going to happen, so this is at least second best.
Another crack at Michigan, potentially followed by either a rematch with Boston College or a student vs. teacher battle between Seth Appert and Jim Montgomery. Intriguing. Really, really difficult, but intriguing nonetheless. Albany is basically the regional of death here - three very strong teams and a nominal home team.
By the way - when we speak of conference tournament upsets (and we will be as we get closer to March), any team that wins their conference tournament that wouldn't have otherwise been in the tournament, that's considered an upset. It's why the #15 and #16 teams are currently considered out, because there's no team in the WCHA or Atlantic Hockey that would otherwise be in. And #14, where the Engineers are now, is a very tenuous spot in part because there's only one team of six in the Big Ten - that's Michigan - who would be in without the autobid.
The quality wins cliff:
16. Penn State .531
17. Cornell .529
18. Minnesota .528
19. Minnesota State .526
20. Michigan Tech .524
--
21. Minnesota-Duluth .521
22. Robert Morris .521
23. Bowling Green .520
24. Clarkson .516
25. Miami .516
Lurking just off screen: St. Lawrence (26th) and Union (27th). Especially if the Engineers sweep this weekend, we'd really, really love to see the current 24th through 27th teams move up in RPI. That's already five wins and a tie, and a sweep would make seven and a tie.
To be honest, when it comes to quality wins against moving past someone in RPI (and usually, concurrently in the PWR), you've got to pick the latter - but quality wins are very nice to have. We'll see an illustration of this with Cornell in just a second.
Quality wins
Boston College (#5, at home)
Yale (#13, at home)
Cornell (#17, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road)
Harvard (#7, at home)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#4, at home)
Harvard (#5, neutral ice)
UMass-Lowell (#11, on the road)
Yale (#13, on the road)
Dartmouth (#15, at home)
Remaining opportunities
Harvard (#7, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#15, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#17, on the road) - Feb 27
Time to have a look at some of the comparisons. We start with one that took a serious blow on Monday.
Boston College (H2H win) - The Eagles' win over Harvard makes this comparison very difficult for the Engineers to win on COp/H2H without divine intervention in March. Speaking generally, it also makes upward mobility a lot more difficult, since this comparison was really the best way for Rensselaer to "negate" its guaranteed comparison loss to Alaska-Anchorage.
As outlined last week, the best case scenario for this comparison at this point before the beginning of the playoffs would see BC losing to New Hampshire on Friday, Rensselaer beating Harvard next weekend, and BC getting swept by UMass-Lowell at the end of the month. If all of that comes to pass, we're looking at a 1.500-1.500 COp, which would only be broken if BC were to play UML or UNH in the Hockey East playoffs, or if Rensselaer plays Harvard in the ECAC playoffs. That doesn't change the current dynamic at all, whereby the RPI winner wins the comparison thanks to the Engineers' H2H win.
In other words, unless something rather drastic happens, this one's only going to be flipped to the Engineers if they can catch up in RPI. So while we'll keep tabs on this one, it's looking pretty unlikely from here on out. Way to blow it, Harvard. But at least it makes rooting for BC from here on out a bit easier, since they're a quality win.
Total COp: 2.000-1.250 BC
New Hampshire: 1.000 each
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - No help from Arizona State (as we sort of expected) as UML crushed the Sun Devils twice - but a small amount of help from the Engineers' comeback win over Brown. That moves COp to 3.500-3.250 for UML. Every little bit.
Once again this week, we have a situation where UML can't improve their COp standing here, but the Engineers can. The River Hawks host New Hampshire on Saturday, and we'll be rooting very strongly for UNH. Should the Wildcats pick up the road win over UML, that will at worst make COp a tie, which is a net benefit for the Engineers because it would return the comparison to being a straight RPI matter. A UNH win drops UML's COp by 0.500. The worst the Engineers can do here is lose to Clarkson, which only drops their COp by 0.250. Should both happen, it's a 3.000-3.000 tie. Even a tie between UNH and UML helps the Engineers.
UML still leads on RPI, which is going to have to change if this comparison is to be flipped, but it's still relatively close. So we're continuing to root against the River Hawks for the foreseeable future no matter who they're playing. BC's win over Harvard on Monday makes it much more likely that we're rooting for the Eagles in that season-ending series between BC and UML.
Total COp: 3.500-3.250 UML
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 UML
New Hampshire: 1.000 each
Yale (H2H split) - All that COp talk from last week is now officially irrelevant unless the Engineers and Bulldogs face each other in the playoffs. Which is the only point it'll become relevant, so it's straight RPI from now until then. Whenever we can (which we'll get to in just a second) we're rooting against Yale as long as they can potentially be caught.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - This one came close to flipping to the Big Green, and it's still very close to doing just that. Thanks to the H2H loss, at the moment Rensselaer must win both RPI and COp in order to keep this one in the win column.
On COp, Rensselaer's worst case scenario has them getting swept at home by SLU/Clarkson and Dartmouth sweeping at Yale/Brown. If that happens, RPI is going to flip anyway, so it's not worth getting too bent out of shape over COp right now. That scenario would even out COp at 6.750 and make it a 2-0 comparison win for Dartmouth where, right now, it's 2-1 Rensselaer.
Yale and Dartmouth play each other on Friday, which means the team directly ahead of the Engineers is playing the team directly below. That's got all kinds of pitfalls, but let's look at it this way. Wins by both Rensselaer and Dartmouth wouldn't move either team ahead of Yale, but wins by St. Lawrence and Dartmouth move the Big Green ahead of the Engineers. Wins by Rensselaer and Yale move the Bulldogs up significantly in the PWR, making them more difficult to catch, but it takes some of the pressure off from Dartmouth. We'll go with Yale - especially since it helps improve them on the quality win scale.
Essentially, it's as brutally simple as just continuing to root against Dartmouth. But there's an added wrinkle that's worth keeping an eye on. Normally, we don't analyze too deeply comparisons that Rensselaer isn't a part of, but like the Engineers, Dartmouth has a comparison that they're currently losing to a team that's pretty far below them in RPI - Vermont.
Dartmouth's 2-1 comparison loss to Vermont on COp/H2H helps provide a minor bit of cushion for the Engineers at the moment, since the PWR is listed strictly in terms of the number of comparison wins. Right now, that's 45 wins for Rensselaer and 44 for Dartmouth. It would be a tie (with the Engineers ranked ahead thanks to the H2H comparison) if the Big Green were winning the comparison with the Catamounts.
So we'd like to see this one kept slanted to UVM. Dartmouth has 3 COp games remaining in their Vermont comparison - SLU, Union, and Colgate. UVM has two, both against New Hampshire. The only game out of these five that can actually help Dartmouth is their game against Union. If they beat the Dutchmen and UVM is swept by UNH, that would even up COp and flip the comparison back to the Big Green. They'd still have to beat SLU and Colgate.
Long story short - we were definitely rooting for Union to beat Dartmouth next week anyway, but that could end up having a triple effect: help get Union back up to quality win status, hurt Dartmouth's RPI, and make it very difficult for the Big Green to win their comparison with Vermont all at the same time (completely impossible if Dartmouth doesn't face Union in the ECAC playoffs).
Total COp: 7.500-6.250 Rensselaer
Yale: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Dartmouth
St. Lawrence: 1.000 each
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Cornell (H2H win) - As predicted last week, a Cornell loss to Clarkson flipped this one to the Engineers, and their subsequent loss to SLU helped solidify it a bit. This actually illustrates how quickly a comparison can sometimes turn, since a 2-1 Cornell win is now a 3-0 Rensselaer win after just one weekend's worth of games.
RPI and COp remain close, and Cornell currently counts as a quality win for the Engineers. Ideally, we'd like to see both teams winning games, but there's certainly something of a fudge factor.
There's a serious exception on Friday - Cornell gets their shot at the Holy Grail on Friday when they play at Quinnipiac. While we'd usually like for Cornell to improve their RPI, this isn't quite the time or place. A win over the #1 team in the country would almost surely propel Cornell back up over the Engineers in PWR. It would pretty much guarantee a comparison flip on Friday night, so let's take Quinnipiac on Friday and then pull for Cornell to pick up a road split against Princeton as a consolation. If it wasn't for the tenuous nature of the Cornell/Rensselaer comparison and the fact that the Big Red are so close in PWR, we'd be rooting for Cornell, but alas, the timing's not good.
Total COp: 5.500-5.000 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
St. Lawrence: 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer
Clarkson: 0.500 each
Biggest single game to watch, by far, is UNH at UML. Nothing else is super important on its own as long as the Engineers are taking care of business themselves (which is always important).
Most interesting - eight different teams we're rooting for one night and against another this week.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Quinnipiac over Cornell - 1/4
Union over Clarkson - 3
Yale over Dartmouth - 1/3/4
Brown over Harvard - 4 (not overly important, far more helpful for the ECAC standings)
Boston College over New Hampshire - 3/5 (loss at least helps on COp, but not much as mentioned above)
UMass over Boston University - 4
Northeastern over UMass-Lowell - 4
Weekend series
Bentley over Mercyhurst - 5
Sacred Heart over Robert Morris - 4
Vermont over Notre Dame - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Northern Michigan - 5
Miami over St. Cloud State - 3/5
Minnesota splits with Penn State - 4 (they're currently tied on RPI)
Colorado College over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Bowling Green over Minnesota State - 4
Lake Superior State over Michigan Tech - 4
Alaska over Ferris State - 5
Saturday
Brown over Dartmouth - 1/4
Cornell over Princeton - 3
Union over St. Lawrence - 3
Harvard over Yale - 4
New Hampshire over UMass-Lowell - 1/4/5
Monday
Harvard over Northeastern - 2
Boston College over Boston University - 3/4/5
Tuesday
Bemidji State over Minnesota Duluth - 4
American International over UMass - not important, but probably hurts general Hockey East RPIs
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 12: Rensselaer at Harvard; Union at Dartmouth
Saturday, February 13: Rensselaer at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
And lo and behold, enough good things happened elsewhere to move the Institute up into the presumed NCAA field - albeit barely, and very much being on the bubble, easily burst if there are any upsets in conference tournaments.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Michigan*
5. Boston College*
6. Providence
7. Harvard
8. Boston University
9. Omaha
10. Notre Dame
11. UMass-Lowell
12. Denver
13. Yale
14. Rensselaer
15. Dartmouth
16. Cornell
18. Minnesota State*
22. Robert Morris*
In since last week: Rensselaer
Out since last week: Cornell
Last in: Yale, Rensselaer
First out: Dartmouth, Cornell
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
OK, so we get to bracket the Engineers into the NCAA tournament for the first time. Here's what we've come up with.
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Boston University
3. Omaha
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Harvard
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Providence
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Yale
Albany
1. Michigan
2. Boston College
3. Denver
4. Rensselaer
Rematches, anyone?
First off, a couple of explanations. Yes, there is an all-Hockey East game in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati, but this is allowed under the NCAA's rules. With five Hockey East teams in the tournament, especially with all five being 2 and 3 seeds, it's pretty much unavoidable. To preserve bracket integrity, there does have to be one Hockey East matchup. So it's the Friars and River Hawks.
The rest of the bracket is actually fairly perfect integrity-wise, with the exception of the Engineers being swapped with Yale. A perfectly made bracket would have Rensselaer in Cincinnati against North Dakota (which is awfully familiar). Our expectation is that if the committee can find a way to put an NCAA-bound Rensselaer team in Albany, they're going to try to do that. In this case, it's not that radical of a decision to do it this way. Cincinnati is a tickets problem, but there's no really good way to remedy that here. (We'll talk a little bit about ticket sales next week.)
That's not to say that there might not be situations where the Engineers might end up in a different regional - it's more that this scenario just makes it easy to make the change. Personally, I think they ought to just call Rensselaer a host and keep them there anyway, only giving primacy to Union if both teams are in the tournament, but that's apparently not what's going to happen, so this is at least second best.
Another crack at Michigan, potentially followed by either a rematch with Boston College or a student vs. teacher battle between Seth Appert and Jim Montgomery. Intriguing. Really, really difficult, but intriguing nonetheless. Albany is basically the regional of death here - three very strong teams and a nominal home team.
By the way - when we speak of conference tournament upsets (and we will be as we get closer to March), any team that wins their conference tournament that wouldn't have otherwise been in the tournament, that's considered an upset. It's why the #15 and #16 teams are currently considered out, because there's no team in the WCHA or Atlantic Hockey that would otherwise be in. And #14, where the Engineers are now, is a very tenuous spot in part because there's only one team of six in the Big Ten - that's Michigan - who would be in without the autobid.
The quality wins cliff:
16. Penn State .531
17. Cornell .529
18. Minnesota .528
19. Minnesota State .526
20. Michigan Tech .524
--
21. Minnesota-Duluth .521
22. Robert Morris .521
23. Bowling Green .520
24. Clarkson .516
25. Miami .516
Lurking just off screen: St. Lawrence (26th) and Union (27th). Especially if the Engineers sweep this weekend, we'd really, really love to see the current 24th through 27th teams move up in RPI. That's already five wins and a tie, and a sweep would make seven and a tie.
To be honest, when it comes to quality wins against moving past someone in RPI (and usually, concurrently in the PWR), you've got to pick the latter - but quality wins are very nice to have. We'll see an illustration of this with Cornell in just a second.
Quality wins
Boston College (#5, at home)
Yale (#13, at home)
Cornell (#17, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road)
Harvard (#7, at home)
Missed opportunities
Michigan (#4, at home)
Harvard (#5, neutral ice)
UMass-Lowell (#11, on the road)
Yale (#13, on the road)
Dartmouth (#15, at home)
Remaining opportunities
Harvard (#7, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#15, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#17, on the road) - Feb 27
Time to have a look at some of the comparisons. We start with one that took a serious blow on Monday.
Boston College (H2H win) - The Eagles' win over Harvard makes this comparison very difficult for the Engineers to win on COp/H2H without divine intervention in March. Speaking generally, it also makes upward mobility a lot more difficult, since this comparison was really the best way for Rensselaer to "negate" its guaranteed comparison loss to Alaska-Anchorage.
As outlined last week, the best case scenario for this comparison at this point before the beginning of the playoffs would see BC losing to New Hampshire on Friday, Rensselaer beating Harvard next weekend, and BC getting swept by UMass-Lowell at the end of the month. If all of that comes to pass, we're looking at a 1.500-1.500 COp, which would only be broken if BC were to play UML or UNH in the Hockey East playoffs, or if Rensselaer plays Harvard in the ECAC playoffs. That doesn't change the current dynamic at all, whereby the RPI winner wins the comparison thanks to the Engineers' H2H win.
In other words, unless something rather drastic happens, this one's only going to be flipped to the Engineers if they can catch up in RPI. So while we'll keep tabs on this one, it's looking pretty unlikely from here on out. Way to blow it, Harvard. But at least it makes rooting for BC from here on out a bit easier, since they're a quality win.
Total COp: 2.000-1.250 BC
New Hampshire: 1.000 each
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - No help from Arizona State (as we sort of expected) as UML crushed the Sun Devils twice - but a small amount of help from the Engineers' comeback win over Brown. That moves COp to 3.500-3.250 for UML. Every little bit.
Once again this week, we have a situation where UML can't improve their COp standing here, but the Engineers can. The River Hawks host New Hampshire on Saturday, and we'll be rooting very strongly for UNH. Should the Wildcats pick up the road win over UML, that will at worst make COp a tie, which is a net benefit for the Engineers because it would return the comparison to being a straight RPI matter. A UNH win drops UML's COp by 0.500. The worst the Engineers can do here is lose to Clarkson, which only drops their COp by 0.250. Should both happen, it's a 3.000-3.000 tie. Even a tie between UNH and UML helps the Engineers.
UML still leads on RPI, which is going to have to change if this comparison is to be flipped, but it's still relatively close. So we're continuing to root against the River Hawks for the foreseeable future no matter who they're playing. BC's win over Harvard on Monday makes it much more likely that we're rooting for the Eagles in that season-ending series between BC and UML.
Total COp: 3.500-3.250 UML
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 UML
New Hampshire: 1.000 each
Yale (H2H split) - All that COp talk from last week is now officially irrelevant unless the Engineers and Bulldogs face each other in the playoffs. Which is the only point it'll become relevant, so it's straight RPI from now until then. Whenever we can (which we'll get to in just a second) we're rooting against Yale as long as they can potentially be caught.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - This one came close to flipping to the Big Green, and it's still very close to doing just that. Thanks to the H2H loss, at the moment Rensselaer must win both RPI and COp in order to keep this one in the win column.
On COp, Rensselaer's worst case scenario has them getting swept at home by SLU/Clarkson and Dartmouth sweeping at Yale/Brown. If that happens, RPI is going to flip anyway, so it's not worth getting too bent out of shape over COp right now. That scenario would even out COp at 6.750 and make it a 2-0 comparison win for Dartmouth where, right now, it's 2-1 Rensselaer.
Yale and Dartmouth play each other on Friday, which means the team directly ahead of the Engineers is playing the team directly below. That's got all kinds of pitfalls, but let's look at it this way. Wins by both Rensselaer and Dartmouth wouldn't move either team ahead of Yale, but wins by St. Lawrence and Dartmouth move the Big Green ahead of the Engineers. Wins by Rensselaer and Yale move the Bulldogs up significantly in the PWR, making them more difficult to catch, but it takes some of the pressure off from Dartmouth. We'll go with Yale - especially since it helps improve them on the quality win scale.
Essentially, it's as brutally simple as just continuing to root against Dartmouth. But there's an added wrinkle that's worth keeping an eye on. Normally, we don't analyze too deeply comparisons that Rensselaer isn't a part of, but like the Engineers, Dartmouth has a comparison that they're currently losing to a team that's pretty far below them in RPI - Vermont.
Dartmouth's 2-1 comparison loss to Vermont on COp/H2H helps provide a minor bit of cushion for the Engineers at the moment, since the PWR is listed strictly in terms of the number of comparison wins. Right now, that's 45 wins for Rensselaer and 44 for Dartmouth. It would be a tie (with the Engineers ranked ahead thanks to the H2H comparison) if the Big Green were winning the comparison with the Catamounts.
So we'd like to see this one kept slanted to UVM. Dartmouth has 3 COp games remaining in their Vermont comparison - SLU, Union, and Colgate. UVM has two, both against New Hampshire. The only game out of these five that can actually help Dartmouth is their game against Union. If they beat the Dutchmen and UVM is swept by UNH, that would even up COp and flip the comparison back to the Big Green. They'd still have to beat SLU and Colgate.
Long story short - we were definitely rooting for Union to beat Dartmouth next week anyway, but that could end up having a triple effect: help get Union back up to quality win status, hurt Dartmouth's RPI, and make it very difficult for the Big Green to win their comparison with Vermont all at the same time (completely impossible if Dartmouth doesn't face Union in the ECAC playoffs).
Total COp: 7.500-6.250 Rensselaer
Yale: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Brown: 1.000-0.750 Dartmouth
St. Lawrence: 1.000 each
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 Dartmouth
Cornell (H2H win) - As predicted last week, a Cornell loss to Clarkson flipped this one to the Engineers, and their subsequent loss to SLU helped solidify it a bit. This actually illustrates how quickly a comparison can sometimes turn, since a 2-1 Cornell win is now a 3-0 Rensselaer win after just one weekend's worth of games.
RPI and COp remain close, and Cornell currently counts as a quality win for the Engineers. Ideally, we'd like to see both teams winning games, but there's certainly something of a fudge factor.
There's a serious exception on Friday - Cornell gets their shot at the Holy Grail on Friday when they play at Quinnipiac. While we'd usually like for Cornell to improve their RPI, this isn't quite the time or place. A win over the #1 team in the country would almost surely propel Cornell back up over the Engineers in PWR. It would pretty much guarantee a comparison flip on Friday night, so let's take Quinnipiac on Friday and then pull for Cornell to pick up a road split against Princeton as a consolation. If it wasn't for the tenuous nature of the Cornell/Rensselaer comparison and the fact that the Big Red are so close in PWR, we'd be rooting for Cornell, but alas, the timing's not good.
Total COp: 5.500-5.000 Rensselaer
Quinnipiac: 0.500-0.000 Rensselaer
Princeton: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
St. Lawrence: 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer
Clarkson: 0.500 each
Biggest single game to watch, by far, is UNH at UML. Nothing else is super important on its own as long as the Engineers are taking care of business themselves (which is always important).
Most interesting - eight different teams we're rooting for one night and against another this week.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Quinnipiac over Cornell - 1/4
Union over Clarkson - 3
Yale over Dartmouth - 1/3/4
Brown over Harvard - 4 (not overly important, far more helpful for the ECAC standings)
Boston College over New Hampshire - 3/5 (loss at least helps on COp, but not much as mentioned above)
UMass over Boston University - 4
Northeastern over UMass-Lowell - 4
Weekend series
Bentley over Mercyhurst - 5
Sacred Heart over Robert Morris - 4
Vermont over Notre Dame - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Northern Michigan - 5
Miami over St. Cloud State - 3/5
Minnesota splits with Penn State - 4 (they're currently tied on RPI)
Colorado College over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Bowling Green over Minnesota State - 4
Lake Superior State over Michigan Tech - 4
Alaska over Ferris State - 5
Saturday
Brown over Dartmouth - 1/4
Cornell over Princeton - 3
Union over St. Lawrence - 3
Harvard over Yale - 4
New Hampshire over UMass-Lowell - 1/4/5
Monday
Harvard over Northeastern - 2
Boston College over Boston University - 3/4/5
Tuesday
Bemidji State over Minnesota Duluth - 4
American International over UMass - not important, but probably hurts general Hockey East RPIs
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 12: Rensselaer at Harvard; Union at Dartmouth
Saturday, February 13: Rensselaer at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 4
We're doing Bracketology on Tuesday this week because of the women's game against Yale getting moved to tonight, and also because we have a special post coming this week (long-time WaP followers should know what that will be). So even though there's still two games tonight that we're (sort of) watching for that were attached to last week's edition, here's where we currently stand.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Providence*
5. Harvard
6. Michigan*
7. Boston College
8. Notre Dame
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. UMass-Lowell
13. Denver
14. Cornell
15. Minnesota
16. Penn State
17. Rensselaer
21. Minnesota State*
23. Robert Morris*
In since last week: none
Out since last week: non
Last in: Denver, Cornell
First out: Minnesota, Penn State
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Notre Dame
3. Omaha
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Boston College
3. Yale
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Michigan
3. Boston University
4. Cornell
Albany
1. Providence
2. Harvard
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Denver
A couple of potential bracket changes - again, could see the entirety of the Worcester and Albany regionals swapped for the sake of ticket sales as long as the committee doesn't mind sending Quinnipiac to a technically (but not by much) farther away regional. Probably would see Boston College and Notre Dame swapped, too for the same reason.
The RPI cliff:
16. Minnesota .541
17. Rensselaer .539
18. Dartmouth .538
19. Bowling Green .528
20. Minnesota State .526
--
21. Minnesota-Duluth .523
22. Miami .520
23. Michigan Tech .518
24. Robert Morris .518
25. Clarkson .509
Further down, there's St. Lawrence (#26) and Union (#30).
After taking a hard look at the Pairwise calculator, I've come to the conclusion that I was mistaken before - quality ties do add at least something of an RPI bonus, albeit only half what a win gets. With that in mind, I'm adding quality ties to our QWB tracker.
Quality wins
Boston College (#7, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Cornell (#14, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road)
Harvard (#5, at home)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#5, neutral ice)
Michigan (#6, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#11, on the road)
Dartmouth (#18, at home)
Upcoming opportunities
Yale (#10, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#5, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#18, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#14, on the road) - Feb 27
So, we can still use those SLU and Union quality wins, eh? Guess who we're rooting for (and Miami too, of course, since they're within striking distance of the Top 20).
Look. It's Union. Home of annoying fat rent-a-cops who threaten you if you sneeze let alone cheer. Home of insufferable bandwagon fans with a lame band. I get it. You love watching them struggle. But that's not going to help anything. In all honesty? Root for them to run the ECAC table. 10 wins to end the regular season. Why? Because that could be just what the doctor ordered for the Engineers to play in the national tournament. Three big quality wins added to the ledger would be glorious, and the higher they rise, the better the bonus (if it ever comes back). Does it look promising? Not particularly. But it would be a solid help.
More than a few comparisons worth examining right now.
Boston College (H2H win) - Very simple with this comparison this week. If Harvard beats the Eagles in the Beanpot, this comparison flips to Rensselaer for the time being. Right now, the only common opponent is New Hampshire (both 1.000), which makes this a 1-1 win for BC on RPI. Harvard becomes a COp on Monday, however, and by virtue of the Engineers' 0-0 draw with the Crimson in December, a Harvard win over BC moves COp to 1.250-1.000, and gives Rensselaer a 2-1 comparison win on COp/H2H.
Now, this would only be temporary, because UMass-Lowell becomes a COp in late February when the two Hockey East teams play each other during the final weekend of the regular season - which can only benefit BC, as the Engineers lost the only game they'll play against UML this year. Looking ahead, if BC does lose to Harvard, we'll be rooting extra hard for UNH to beat them as well on the following Friday. Best case scenario, in two weeks COp stands at 1.250-0.500 Rensselaer. At any rate, a Harvard win flips and keeps this comparison with the Engineers through the end of February at least.
This comparison gets much harder to flip without BC's RPI coming down a lot (which probably won't happen) if the Eagles beat the Crimson. Since the Beanpot game can't end in a tie (they can and do go to multiple overtimes), it's an either/or proposition. If BC wins, COp goes to 2.000-1.250 BC, and the lowest BC's COp would be able to get would be 1.500, assuming they lose to New Hampshire next Friday and then get swept by UML. That would require Rensselaer to have beaten the Crimson in February for COp to be at 1.500-1.500 before considering playoff series/games that would have impact (BC/UNH, Rensselaer/Harvard). So in other words, a BC victory on Monday all but certainly makes this a nut too tough to crack - but a Harvard victory leaves the barn door wide open.
Total COp: 1.000-1.000
Harvard: To be added (.250 for Rensselaer)
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - This comparison is brought back into view thanks to three games this week that influence COp.
As of now, the Engineers trail UML on COp thanks to the River Hawks' win over Clarkson (while Rensselaer has just a tie). The combined winning percentages are 2.000 to 2.500 in UML's favor in games against Brown, Clarkson, and New Hampshire. This week adds Arizona State to the mix as the Sun Devils return east to face the River Hawks. That'll add a full 1.000 to the Engineers' side of the ledger, so anything less than a two game sweep for UML helps Rensselaer out here. Even a tie would be kind of an upset for ASU, but it's good to know that there's nothing UML can really do here to get a leg up.
The Engineers also face Brown on Friday, which is another opportunity to improve COp. UML won't see Brown again, and the only game they had against them was a draw in the Friendship Four Championship in Northern Ireland. If Rensselaer can defeat the Bears on Friday, the Brown portion becomes a net benefit for the Engineers (.750 to .500). If it's a tie, it keeps Brown a wash as it is now. If it's a loss, it makes Brown a net benefit for UML (.500 to .250). Of course, this could change again should Rensselaer and Brown meet in the playoffs.
The Clarkson element of COp can be improved at the Freakout!, but it can't be overcome since UML also doesn't face Clarkson again. A win would help offset any future discrepancies in the Brown element. For UML's part, they do still have another game against New Hampshire (1.000 for the Engineers) which can only hurt them, and Boston College (1.000) is added on the last week of the regular season, which also can only hurt them (although it's possible by that time we'll be rooting for UML if the BC comparison can be won). And, once more, the whole COp comparison is meaningless if UML's RPI doesn't decrease, too.
Total COp: 2.500-2.000 UML
Brown: 0.500 each
Arizona State: To be added (1.000 for Rensselaer)
Yale (H2H win) - Might as well mention this one since the second H2H matchup is on Saturday. A win or a tie for the Engineers keeps COp in play as a manner of flipping this comparison, while a loss reverts it to being solely RPI based.
Yale's been an interesting case to look at. On one hand, they're providing Rensselaer with a quality win bonus, so we want them to be as high in the RPI as they can be to provide a better bonus. On the other hand, they're kind of within the realm of "teams the Engineers can catch in the Pairwise," so losses are good too. It's a Catch-22 situation.
Looking at COp, the only non-conference common opponent is Arizona State, and both the Engineers and Bulldogs were perfect against ASU. So in a nutshell, COp will come down to whichever team does better within the ECAC (outside of head to head matchups) by the end of the season, including playoffs, with three exceptions: Princeton (who Yale beat in a non-conference game), Harvard (who Rensselaer lost to in a tournament) and Union (the Mayor's Cup). Therefore, the remaining games that these teams have against these three schools (Princeton and Harvard for Rensselaer, all three for Yale - including Union at Yale on Friday) have a little extra meaning for this comparison.
Unless, of course, Yale beats the Engineers on Saturday night, and then COp doesn't matter anymore. A win or a tie would keep the COp/H2H comparison win scenario alive, which is the best case scenario since we'd also like Yale's RPI to be as high as possible, too.
Total COp: 8.000-6.750 Yale
Brown: 1.000-0.500 Yale
Union: 1.000 each
Cornell (H2H win) - The Big Red have not had a good last two weeks. They've gone 0-3-1 in their last four games and have dropped considerably in RPI and the Pairwise. Not a good thing necessarily for the Engineers, as they're currently a quality win, but it does make them similar to Yale in that they could be caught. There's an added wrinkle here - the comparison with Cornell could be flipped as soon as Friday.
Should Clarkson beat Cornell, a Rensselaer win or tie with Brown would flip this comparison to the Engineers, regardless of whether Cornell's RPI drops below that of Rensselaer. Whether that lasts the weekend depends largely on what happens on Saturday, when both teams play games that can only hurt their COp figure (Cornell with SLU, Rensselaer with Yale).
There are zero non-conference COps between these two teams, so as one would expect, COp is very close. Until these teams play each other again in February, we could be watching this one ping-pong a bit. Then again, if these teams keep having results like they've been having the last two weeks, with Rensselaer unbeaten and Cornell winless, this could flip quickly and stay that way for a while.
Total COp: 6.000-5.750 Cornell
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
St. Lawrence: 1.000 each
Brown: 1.000 to 0.500 Cornell
Yale: 1.000 to 0.500 Rensselaer
Michigan (H2H loss) - Real quick with this one. Michigan's going to be very tough because RPI has to be flipped as well (and that's unlikely), but the door is kept open thanks to the Engineers' victory in the Mayor's Cup. The Wolverines tied the Dutchmen, which leaves that element at 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer. With Dartmouth the only other COp (0.750-0.000 Michigan right now), a win over Dartmouth in a few weeks would flip COp to the Engineers, 1.500 to 1.250. But, again, RPI has to be flipped as well thanks to the H2H loss.
Union (3 H2H wins) - Another open and shut recap. This one now is guaranteed to be won by the Engineers as long as they don't face Union in the playoffs and lose. That is the only scenario in which this one could be lost - it probably still wouldn't be.
Not worth examining Dartmouth (H2H loss) this week because they can't overcome on COp, but they can certainly overtake Rensselaer on RPI. The Engineers winning their own games would be just fine here.
Time for the cheering section. Obviously, the games we're looking most closely at this week are Cornell at Clarkson/SLU, ASU at UML, Quinnipiac/Princeton at Dartmouth, Union at Yale, and the BC/Harvard Beanpot game.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Tonight
Princeton over American International - 2
Sacred Heart over UConn - would do some minor damage to Hockey East RPIs, not important
Friday
Clarkson over Cornell - 1
St. Lawrence over Colgate - 3
Union over Yale - 1/3/4
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth - 1/4
Merrimack over Boston University - 4
Boston College over Notre Dame - 3/4/5
Weekend series
Michigan over Penn State - 4/5
New Hampshire over Providence - 5
Miami over Denver - 4/5
Western Michigan over North Dakota - 5
Bentley over Sacred Heart - 5
Arizona State over UMass-Lowell - 1/4/5
Northern Michigan over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Michigan Tech over Bowling Green - 4
Colorado College over Omaha - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Alabama-Huntsville - 5
Alaska over Wisconsin - 5
Saturday
St. Cloud State over Minnesota State - 4
Bemidji State over Minnesota - 4
Princeton over Dartmouth - 1/4
St. Lawrence over Cornell - 1
Union over Brown - 3
Sunday
Minnesota State/St. Cloud State over Minnesota AND/OR Bemidji State over Minnesota State - 4
Arizona State over Merrimack - 5
Monday
Harvard over Boston College - 1/2
Northeastern over Boston University - 4
Tuesday
Brown over UConn - 2
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 12: Rensselaer at Harvard
Saturday, February 13: Rensselaer at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Providence*
5. Harvard
6. Michigan*
7. Boston College
8. Notre Dame
9. Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. UMass-Lowell
13. Denver
14. Cornell
15. Minnesota
16. Penn State
17. Rensselaer
21. Minnesota State*
23. Robert Morris*
In since last week: none
Out since last week: non
Last in: Denver, Cornell
First out: Minnesota, Penn State
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Notre Dame
3. Omaha
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Boston College
3. Yale
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Michigan
3. Boston University
4. Cornell
Albany
1. Providence
2. Harvard
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Denver
A couple of potential bracket changes - again, could see the entirety of the Worcester and Albany regionals swapped for the sake of ticket sales as long as the committee doesn't mind sending Quinnipiac to a technically (but not by much) farther away regional. Probably would see Boston College and Notre Dame swapped, too for the same reason.
The RPI cliff:
16. Minnesota .541
17. Rensselaer .539
18. Dartmouth .538
19. Bowling Green .528
20. Minnesota State .526
--
21. Minnesota-Duluth .523
22. Miami .520
23. Michigan Tech .518
24. Robert Morris .518
25. Clarkson .509
Further down, there's St. Lawrence (#26) and Union (#30).
After taking a hard look at the Pairwise calculator, I've come to the conclusion that I was mistaken before - quality ties do add at least something of an RPI bonus, albeit only half what a win gets. With that in mind, I'm adding quality ties to our QWB tracker.
Quality wins
Boston College (#7, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Cornell (#14, at home)
Quality ties (half a quality win)
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road)
Harvard (#5, at home)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#5, neutral ice)
Michigan (#6, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#11, on the road)
Dartmouth (#18, at home)
Upcoming opportunities
Yale (#10, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#5, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#18, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Cornell (#14, on the road) - Feb 27
So, we can still use those SLU and Union quality wins, eh? Guess who we're rooting for (and Miami too, of course, since they're within striking distance of the Top 20).
Look. It's Union. Home of annoying fat rent-a-cops who threaten you if you sneeze let alone cheer. Home of insufferable bandwagon fans with a lame band. I get it. You love watching them struggle. But that's not going to help anything. In all honesty? Root for them to run the ECAC table. 10 wins to end the regular season. Why? Because that could be just what the doctor ordered for the Engineers to play in the national tournament. Three big quality wins added to the ledger would be glorious, and the higher they rise, the better the bonus (if it ever comes back). Does it look promising? Not particularly. But it would be a solid help.
More than a few comparisons worth examining right now.
Boston College (H2H win) - Very simple with this comparison this week. If Harvard beats the Eagles in the Beanpot, this comparison flips to Rensselaer for the time being. Right now, the only common opponent is New Hampshire (both 1.000), which makes this a 1-1 win for BC on RPI. Harvard becomes a COp on Monday, however, and by virtue of the Engineers' 0-0 draw with the Crimson in December, a Harvard win over BC moves COp to 1.250-1.000, and gives Rensselaer a 2-1 comparison win on COp/H2H.
Now, this would only be temporary, because UMass-Lowell becomes a COp in late February when the two Hockey East teams play each other during the final weekend of the regular season - which can only benefit BC, as the Engineers lost the only game they'll play against UML this year. Looking ahead, if BC does lose to Harvard, we'll be rooting extra hard for UNH to beat them as well on the following Friday. Best case scenario, in two weeks COp stands at 1.250-0.500 Rensselaer. At any rate, a Harvard win flips and keeps this comparison with the Engineers through the end of February at least.
This comparison gets much harder to flip without BC's RPI coming down a lot (which probably won't happen) if the Eagles beat the Crimson. Since the Beanpot game can't end in a tie (they can and do go to multiple overtimes), it's an either/or proposition. If BC wins, COp goes to 2.000-1.250 BC, and the lowest BC's COp would be able to get would be 1.500, assuming they lose to New Hampshire next Friday and then get swept by UML. That would require Rensselaer to have beaten the Crimson in February for COp to be at 1.500-1.500 before considering playoff series/games that would have impact (BC/UNH, Rensselaer/Harvard). So in other words, a BC victory on Monday all but certainly makes this a nut too tough to crack - but a Harvard victory leaves the barn door wide open.
Total COp: 1.000-1.000
Harvard: To be added (.250 for Rensselaer)
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - This comparison is brought back into view thanks to three games this week that influence COp.
As of now, the Engineers trail UML on COp thanks to the River Hawks' win over Clarkson (while Rensselaer has just a tie). The combined winning percentages are 2.000 to 2.500 in UML's favor in games against Brown, Clarkson, and New Hampshire. This week adds Arizona State to the mix as the Sun Devils return east to face the River Hawks. That'll add a full 1.000 to the Engineers' side of the ledger, so anything less than a two game sweep for UML helps Rensselaer out here. Even a tie would be kind of an upset for ASU, but it's good to know that there's nothing UML can really do here to get a leg up.
The Engineers also face Brown on Friday, which is another opportunity to improve COp. UML won't see Brown again, and the only game they had against them was a draw in the Friendship Four Championship in Northern Ireland. If Rensselaer can defeat the Bears on Friday, the Brown portion becomes a net benefit for the Engineers (.750 to .500). If it's a tie, it keeps Brown a wash as it is now. If it's a loss, it makes Brown a net benefit for UML (.500 to .250). Of course, this could change again should Rensselaer and Brown meet in the playoffs.
The Clarkson element of COp can be improved at the Freakout!, but it can't be overcome since UML also doesn't face Clarkson again. A win would help offset any future discrepancies in the Brown element. For UML's part, they do still have another game against New Hampshire (1.000 for the Engineers) which can only hurt them, and Boston College (1.000) is added on the last week of the regular season, which also can only hurt them (although it's possible by that time we'll be rooting for UML if the BC comparison can be won). And, once more, the whole COp comparison is meaningless if UML's RPI doesn't decrease, too.
Total COp: 2.500-2.000 UML
Brown: 0.500 each
Arizona State: To be added (1.000 for Rensselaer)
Yale (H2H win) - Might as well mention this one since the second H2H matchup is on Saturday. A win or a tie for the Engineers keeps COp in play as a manner of flipping this comparison, while a loss reverts it to being solely RPI based.
Yale's been an interesting case to look at. On one hand, they're providing Rensselaer with a quality win bonus, so we want them to be as high in the RPI as they can be to provide a better bonus. On the other hand, they're kind of within the realm of "teams the Engineers can catch in the Pairwise," so losses are good too. It's a Catch-22 situation.
Looking at COp, the only non-conference common opponent is Arizona State, and both the Engineers and Bulldogs were perfect against ASU. So in a nutshell, COp will come down to whichever team does better within the ECAC (outside of head to head matchups) by the end of the season, including playoffs, with three exceptions: Princeton (who Yale beat in a non-conference game), Harvard (who Rensselaer lost to in a tournament) and Union (the Mayor's Cup). Therefore, the remaining games that these teams have against these three schools (Princeton and Harvard for Rensselaer, all three for Yale - including Union at Yale on Friday) have a little extra meaning for this comparison.
Unless, of course, Yale beats the Engineers on Saturday night, and then COp doesn't matter anymore. A win or a tie would keep the COp/H2H comparison win scenario alive, which is the best case scenario since we'd also like Yale's RPI to be as high as possible, too.
Total COp: 8.000-6.750 Yale
Brown: 1.000-0.500 Yale
Union: 1.000 each
Cornell (H2H win) - The Big Red have not had a good last two weeks. They've gone 0-3-1 in their last four games and have dropped considerably in RPI and the Pairwise. Not a good thing necessarily for the Engineers, as they're currently a quality win, but it does make them similar to Yale in that they could be caught. There's an added wrinkle here - the comparison with Cornell could be flipped as soon as Friday.
Should Clarkson beat Cornell, a Rensselaer win or tie with Brown would flip this comparison to the Engineers, regardless of whether Cornell's RPI drops below that of Rensselaer. Whether that lasts the weekend depends largely on what happens on Saturday, when both teams play games that can only hurt their COp figure (Cornell with SLU, Rensselaer with Yale).
There are zero non-conference COps between these two teams, so as one would expect, COp is very close. Until these teams play each other again in February, we could be watching this one ping-pong a bit. Then again, if these teams keep having results like they've been having the last two weeks, with Rensselaer unbeaten and Cornell winless, this could flip quickly and stay that way for a while.
Total COp: 6.000-5.750 Cornell
Clarkson: 1.000-0.500 Cornell
St. Lawrence: 1.000 each
Brown: 1.000 to 0.500 Cornell
Yale: 1.000 to 0.500 Rensselaer
Michigan (H2H loss) - Real quick with this one. Michigan's going to be very tough because RPI has to be flipped as well (and that's unlikely), but the door is kept open thanks to the Engineers' victory in the Mayor's Cup. The Wolverines tied the Dutchmen, which leaves that element at 1.000-0.500 Rensselaer. With Dartmouth the only other COp (0.750-0.000 Michigan right now), a win over Dartmouth in a few weeks would flip COp to the Engineers, 1.500 to 1.250. But, again, RPI has to be flipped as well thanks to the H2H loss.
Union (3 H2H wins) - Another open and shut recap. This one now is guaranteed to be won by the Engineers as long as they don't face Union in the playoffs and lose. That is the only scenario in which this one could be lost - it probably still wouldn't be.
Not worth examining Dartmouth (H2H loss) this week because they can't overcome on COp, but they can certainly overtake Rensselaer on RPI. The Engineers winning their own games would be just fine here.
Time for the cheering section. Obviously, the games we're looking most closely at this week are Cornell at Clarkson/SLU, ASU at UML, Quinnipiac/Princeton at Dartmouth, Union at Yale, and the BC/Harvard Beanpot game.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Tonight
Princeton over American International - 2
Sacred Heart over UConn - would do some minor damage to Hockey East RPIs, not important
Friday
Clarkson over Cornell - 1
St. Lawrence over Colgate - 3
Union over Yale - 1/3/4
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth - 1/4
Merrimack over Boston University - 4
Boston College over Notre Dame - 3/4/5
Weekend series
Michigan over Penn State - 4/5
New Hampshire over Providence - 5
Miami over Denver - 4/5
Western Michigan over North Dakota - 5
Bentley over Sacred Heart - 5
Arizona State over UMass-Lowell - 1/4/5
Northern Michigan over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Michigan Tech over Bowling Green - 4
Colorado College over Omaha - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Alabama-Huntsville - 5
Alaska over Wisconsin - 5
Saturday
St. Cloud State over Minnesota State - 4
Bemidji State over Minnesota - 4
Princeton over Dartmouth - 1/4
St. Lawrence over Cornell - 1
Union over Brown - 3
Sunday
Minnesota State/St. Cloud State over Minnesota AND/OR Bemidji State over Minnesota State - 4
Arizona State over Merrimack - 5
Monday
Harvard over Boston College - 1/2
Northeastern over Boston University - 4
Tuesday
Brown over UConn - 2
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 12: Rensselaer at Harvard
Saturday, February 13: Rensselaer at Dartmouth
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 3
Another week, more ECAC points, a second place position in the league... and another drop in the Pairwise for the Engineers.
The current situation:
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Providence*
5. Omaha
6. Harvard
7. Michigan*
8. Cornell
9. Boston College
10. Notre Dame
11. Yale
12. Boston University
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Denver
15. Penn State
16. Minnesota
17. Minnesota Duluth
18. Rensselaer
20. Minnesota State*
21. Robert Morris*
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Denver
First out: Penn State, Minnesota
In since last week: none
Out since last week: none
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Cornell
3. Boston College
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Michigan
3. Yale
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Harvard
3. Notre Dame
4. UMass-Lowell
Albany
1. Providence
2. Omaha
3. Boston University
4. Denver
We'll learn more about the likelihood of some things in the bracketing process being different, but I'd almost swap the Worcester and Albany regionals in their entirety if only to help ticket sales at both. Problem is, the #1 overall seed is usually placed in their closest regional, and that's Worcester for the Bobcats. It's not like Albany's that much farther away.
Some clarification has come down on the whole "who's hosting in Albany" thing. It was announced that RPI and Union were both hosting, which would lead to some problems if both made the tournament and were seeded the same. Here's what USCHO found out:
So the Engineers are still falling in the PWR. despite being unbeaten since we started this whole Bracketology thing - 1-0-2. What about the other teams nearby in the RPI - and by extension, PWR?
Notre Dame: 3-0-1
Yale: 4-0-1
Boston University: 2-1-1 (loss/tie to Boston College)
UMass-Lowell: 3-0-0
Denver: 3-0-1
Penn State: 3-1-0 (loss to Minnesota)
Minnesota: 3-1-0 (loss to Penn State)
Minnesota Duluth: 1-1-2 (loss to St. Cloud State)
The moral of the story: if you're going to lose (or tie, since a tie is half a loss), lose to a strong team. The Engineers tied Princeton and Colgate, and neither - by RPI standards - qualifies as a strong team. Meanwhile, that's not something that's happening to anyone else around Rensselaer in the PWR. Had the Engineers been able to close out wins in those two games (and they had leads in both games), they'd be two spots ahead in the PWR - yet still behind where they started the month since games going on elsewhere have gone so poorly.
Honestly, the best policy is simply to not lose at all - a team can more or less control its own destiny by just winning all the games put in front of them. Just look at Quinnipiac. But again, the 7 teams listed above (everyone but Yale, who are a special situation) are primaries on our "rooting against" list, if only because running the table isn't really a feasible strategy, even if it's the only thing a team has any personal control over.
And then there's the quality wins factor. Through no fault of their own, the Engineers have been losing quality wins. The RPI quality wins cliff, as it looks right now.
16. Minnesota .533
17. Rensselaer .530
18. Minnesota-Duluth .530
19. Dartmouth .525
20. Minnesota State .523
--
21. Michigan Tech .518
22. Bowling Green .518
23. Robert Morris .518
24. Holy Cross .517
25. St. Lawrence .507
For the sake of completeness, let's look slightly beyond our normal RPI cliff.
26. Union .505
27. Clarkson .504
28. Miami .498
29. Western Michigan .497
And now you can see why I did that. Four teams representing five victories for the Engineers (and a fifth potential team coming up at Freakout!) are hanging in spots 25 through 29. Close, but not close enough. Good illustration why we frequently root for non-conference opponents, especially the ones Rensselaer beat.
Quality wins
Cornell (#8, at home)
Boston College (#9, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#6, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#7, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#12, on the road)
Dartmouth (#19, at home)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Yale (#10, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#6, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#19, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Awaiting the Engineers this week is the Holy Grail of PWR opportunities - a game against the #1 team in RPI on the road. There is no other game that can produce a bigger quality win bonus than that. A win over Quinnipiac, by itself, would vault Rensselaer several spots up the PWR, likely to 15th - not quite in the tournament field, but much closer to it than the results of the last several weeks have left them.
As an added bit of good news, a loss to Rensselaer wouldn't be enough to knock the Bobcats out of the top spot in RPI - frequently, picking up a quality win comes with making the team you just beat fall a couple of pegs in the process, but that's not something that would happen on Thursday. It's a big chance for PWR support that they can put together themselves, but it's a one time opportunity. The return trip for QU to Troy in February won't be worth as much.
Let's have a look at a few of the Engineers' comparisions that are worth examining this week.
Minnesota Duluth (straight RPI) - Normally, it's not worth breaking down comparisons with teams that Rensselaer hasn't and won't play, but there's something that needs to be highlighted here - Minnesota became a Top 20 RPI team this week, and that gives UMD just enough of a quality win boost thanks to their two victories over the Gophers that, even though Rensselaer's RPI is (barely) higher than Duluth's, their quality win bonus is enough to push them over the top. Another illustration on why SLU and Union's poor fortunes are harming the Engineers right now - and of other variables in the PWR that are slightly more tangent to Rensselaer and their own results.
To complicate matters, UMD is playing against Denver in an NCHC weekend series this weekend. Both teams are on our above "rooting against" list, and obviously they can't both lose. However, the Engineers can flip this comparison by themselves simply by beating Quinnipiac tomorrow ("simply"). So, if that happens, we're probably willing to absorb the hit from UMD wins if it hurts Denver enough. The reverse is probably true if the Engineers lose or tie with the Bobcats.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - One of two comparisons the Engineers are winning against teams that beat them earlier this year (Alaska is the other, and there's no worry about that one). As noted above, the Big Green are closing in on the Engineers in RPI, and the H2H loss makes this comparison more tentative than others - like Minnesota State and Robert Morris, for instance.
It's probably at least time to start getting a grasp on COp with Dartmouth. This weekend, Colgate (tie) and Cornell (win) become common opponents through the Big Green's games, while Quinnipiac (loss) becomes one through the Engineers' game (Dartmouth lost to Union, so the Mayor's Cup is actually irrelevant here). So as things are set up, it's actually going to be more pressure on the Big Green for COp this weekend, since Rensselaer is gaining positive results against COp and Dartmouth only gaining a negative.
Ultimately, Dartmouth losses this weekend would hurt them in both RPI and COp, so that's what we're going with. The Rensselaer at Dartmouth game on February 13 will have potential implications for this comparison and for the comparison with Michigan (for whom Dartmouth is a common opponent).
Union (2 H2H wins) - If not for the possibility of the Engineers and Dutchmen playing each other in the ECAC playoffs, Rensselaer would effectively clinch this comparison on Saturday with a win, since that would be 3 points on H2H wins alone, meaning the Dutchmen could potentially pull ahead on both RPI and COp and still lose. Not a terribly important comparison to look at, just a remark on what could be done this week. Even if Union retains the Mayor's Cup, this is still a comparison that looks good for the Engineers.
Time to look at what we're hoping for in the coming week, outside of a couple of wins for the Engineers.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Yale over Clarkson - 3 (although the reverse helps COp with Yale)
Harvard over Colgate - 3
Cornell over Dartmouth - 1/3/4
St. Lawrence over Brown - 3
Boston College over UMass - 3/5
Weekend series
Providence over UMass-Lowell - 4
New Hampshire over Notre Dame - 4/5
Maine over Boston University - 4
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris - 4
Bentley over American International - 5
Ohio State over Penn State - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Bowling Green - 5
Lake Superior State over Minnesota State - 4
Western Michigan over St. Cloud State - 5
Miami over Omaha - 5
Wisconsin over Minnesota - 4
Saturday
Colgate over Dartmouth - 1/4
Cornell over Harvard - 3
Yale over St. Lawrence - 3 (although the reverse would help SLU get back to being a quality win)
Boston College over UConn - 3/5
Tuesday
Princeton over American International - 2
Sacred Heart over UConn - call this one a rare six - weakens Hockey East's inter-conference record. Not really that important either way.
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
The current situation:
1. Quinnipiac*
2. St. Cloud State*
3. North Dakota
4. Providence*
5. Omaha
6. Harvard
7. Michigan*
8. Cornell
9. Boston College
10. Notre Dame
11. Yale
12. Boston University
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Denver
15. Penn State
16. Minnesota
17. Minnesota Duluth
18. Rensselaer
20. Minnesota State*
21. Robert Morris*
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Denver
First out: Penn State, Minnesota
In since last week: none
Out since last week: none
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Cornell
3. Boston College
4. Robert Morris
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. Michigan
3. Yale
4. Minnesota State
Cincinnati
1. North Dakota
2. Harvard
3. Notre Dame
4. UMass-Lowell
Albany
1. Providence
2. Omaha
3. Boston University
4. Denver
We'll learn more about the likelihood of some things in the bracketing process being different, but I'd almost swap the Worcester and Albany regionals in their entirety if only to help ticket sales at both. Problem is, the #1 overall seed is usually placed in their closest regional, and that's Worcester for the Bobcats. It's not like Albany's that much farther away.
Some clarification has come down on the whole "who's hosting in Albany" thing. It was announced that RPI and Union were both hosting, which would lead to some problems if both made the tournament and were seeded the same. Here's what USCHO found out:
.@without_a_peer was asking about this last week. Union was picked as the Albany host. https://t.co/dW7OBsjQgX
— Todd Milewski (@ToddMilewski) January 20, 2016
In that light, the Engineers wouldn't necessarily be placed in Albany should they make the tournament. But let's be very clear about this: Albany would still be an extremely likely scenario, barring either Union making the tournament as well or the #1 overall seed coming from the ECAC and being placed there. Rensselaer being at the TU Center in March would sell tickets, period. More than Union, of course, but let's be honest, little brother can have his turn hosting, too.So the Engineers are still falling in the PWR. despite being unbeaten since we started this whole Bracketology thing - 1-0-2. What about the other teams nearby in the RPI - and by extension, PWR?
Notre Dame: 3-0-1
Yale: 4-0-1
Boston University: 2-1-1 (loss/tie to Boston College)
UMass-Lowell: 3-0-0
Denver: 3-0-1
Penn State: 3-1-0 (loss to Minnesota)
Minnesota: 3-1-0 (loss to Penn State)
Minnesota Duluth: 1-1-2 (loss to St. Cloud State)
The moral of the story: if you're going to lose (or tie, since a tie is half a loss), lose to a strong team. The Engineers tied Princeton and Colgate, and neither - by RPI standards - qualifies as a strong team. Meanwhile, that's not something that's happening to anyone else around Rensselaer in the PWR. Had the Engineers been able to close out wins in those two games (and they had leads in both games), they'd be two spots ahead in the PWR - yet still behind where they started the month since games going on elsewhere have gone so poorly.
Honestly, the best policy is simply to not lose at all - a team can more or less control its own destiny by just winning all the games put in front of them. Just look at Quinnipiac. But again, the 7 teams listed above (everyone but Yale, who are a special situation) are primaries on our "rooting against" list, if only because running the table isn't really a feasible strategy, even if it's the only thing a team has any personal control over.
And then there's the quality wins factor. Through no fault of their own, the Engineers have been losing quality wins. The RPI quality wins cliff, as it looks right now.
16. Minnesota .533
17. Rensselaer .530
18. Minnesota-Duluth .530
19. Dartmouth .525
20. Minnesota State .523
--
21. Michigan Tech .518
22. Bowling Green .518
23. Robert Morris .518
24. Holy Cross .517
25. St. Lawrence .507
For the sake of completeness, let's look slightly beyond our normal RPI cliff.
26. Union .505
27. Clarkson .504
28. Miami .498
29. Western Michigan .497
And now you can see why I did that. Four teams representing five victories for the Engineers (and a fifth potential team coming up at Freakout!) are hanging in spots 25 through 29. Close, but not close enough. Good illustration why we frequently root for non-conference opponents, especially the ones Rensselaer beat.
Quality wins
Cornell (#8, at home)
Boston College (#9, at home)
Yale (#10, at home)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#6, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#7, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#12, on the road)
Dartmouth (#19, at home)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Yale (#10, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#6, on the road) - Feb 12
Dartmouth (#19, on the road) - Feb 13
Quinnipiac (#1, at home) - Feb 19
Awaiting the Engineers this week is the Holy Grail of PWR opportunities - a game against the #1 team in RPI on the road. There is no other game that can produce a bigger quality win bonus than that. A win over Quinnipiac, by itself, would vault Rensselaer several spots up the PWR, likely to 15th - not quite in the tournament field, but much closer to it than the results of the last several weeks have left them.
As an added bit of good news, a loss to Rensselaer wouldn't be enough to knock the Bobcats out of the top spot in RPI - frequently, picking up a quality win comes with making the team you just beat fall a couple of pegs in the process, but that's not something that would happen on Thursday. It's a big chance for PWR support that they can put together themselves, but it's a one time opportunity. The return trip for QU to Troy in February won't be worth as much.
Let's have a look at a few of the Engineers' comparisions that are worth examining this week.
Minnesota Duluth (straight RPI) - Normally, it's not worth breaking down comparisons with teams that Rensselaer hasn't and won't play, but there's something that needs to be highlighted here - Minnesota became a Top 20 RPI team this week, and that gives UMD just enough of a quality win boost thanks to their two victories over the Gophers that, even though Rensselaer's RPI is (barely) higher than Duluth's, their quality win bonus is enough to push them over the top. Another illustration on why SLU and Union's poor fortunes are harming the Engineers right now - and of other variables in the PWR that are slightly more tangent to Rensselaer and their own results.
To complicate matters, UMD is playing against Denver in an NCHC weekend series this weekend. Both teams are on our above "rooting against" list, and obviously they can't both lose. However, the Engineers can flip this comparison by themselves simply by beating Quinnipiac tomorrow ("simply"). So, if that happens, we're probably willing to absorb the hit from UMD wins if it hurts Denver enough. The reverse is probably true if the Engineers lose or tie with the Bobcats.
Dartmouth (H2H loss) - One of two comparisons the Engineers are winning against teams that beat them earlier this year (Alaska is the other, and there's no worry about that one). As noted above, the Big Green are closing in on the Engineers in RPI, and the H2H loss makes this comparison more tentative than others - like Minnesota State and Robert Morris, for instance.
It's probably at least time to start getting a grasp on COp with Dartmouth. This weekend, Colgate (tie) and Cornell (win) become common opponents through the Big Green's games, while Quinnipiac (loss) becomes one through the Engineers' game (Dartmouth lost to Union, so the Mayor's Cup is actually irrelevant here). So as things are set up, it's actually going to be more pressure on the Big Green for COp this weekend, since Rensselaer is gaining positive results against COp and Dartmouth only gaining a negative.
Ultimately, Dartmouth losses this weekend would hurt them in both RPI and COp, so that's what we're going with. The Rensselaer at Dartmouth game on February 13 will have potential implications for this comparison and for the comparison with Michigan (for whom Dartmouth is a common opponent).
Union (2 H2H wins) - If not for the possibility of the Engineers and Dutchmen playing each other in the ECAC playoffs, Rensselaer would effectively clinch this comparison on Saturday with a win, since that would be 3 points on H2H wins alone, meaning the Dutchmen could potentially pull ahead on both RPI and COp and still lose. Not a terribly important comparison to look at, just a remark on what could be done this week. Even if Union retains the Mayor's Cup, this is still a comparison that looks good for the Engineers.
Time to look at what we're hoping for in the coming week, outside of a couple of wins for the Engineers.
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineers Cheering Section
Friday
Yale over Clarkson - 3 (although the reverse helps COp with Yale)
Harvard over Colgate - 3
Cornell over Dartmouth - 1/3/4
St. Lawrence over Brown - 3
Boston College over UMass - 3/5
Weekend series
Providence over UMass-Lowell - 4
New Hampshire over Notre Dame - 4/5
Maine over Boston University - 4
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris - 4
Bentley over American International - 5
Ohio State over Penn State - 4
Alaska-Anchorage over Bowling Green - 5
Lake Superior State over Minnesota State - 4
Western Michigan over St. Cloud State - 5
Miami over Omaha - 5
Wisconsin over Minnesota - 4
Saturday
Colgate over Dartmouth - 1/4
Cornell over Harvard - 3
Yale over St. Lawrence - 3 (although the reverse would help SLU get back to being a quality win)
Boston College over UConn - 3/5
Tuesday
Princeton over American International - 2
Sacred Heart over UConn - call this one a rare six - weakens Hockey East's inter-conference record. Not really that important either way.
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 2
This week was an excellent demonstration for why other games are just as important - and frequently more so - than your own games when it comes to positioning in the Pairwise Rankings.
Rensselaer played just one game this week, skating to a 3-3 draw with Princeton. That's not a great result, but taken by itself, it really didn't change much of anything. In fact, even if the Engineers had beaten the Tigers, they still would have seen their Pairwise ranking decrease.
Here's what it currently looks like.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. North Dakota*
3. St. Cloud State
4. Harvard
5. Cornell
6. Providence*
7. Omaha
8. Michigan*
9. Boston University
10. Boston College
11. Notre Dame
12. Yale
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Denver
15. Penn State
16. Minnesota Duluth
17. Rensselaer
18. Minnesota State*
23. Robert Morris*
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Denver
First out: Penn State, Minnesota Duluth
In since last week: Boston College, Denver
Out since last week: St. Lawrence, Penn State
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
(Since Rensselaer's out of the tournament right now and nothing major has changed other than what's listed above, we'll forego the projected bracket this week. Also note - I decided to change the presumed autobid from whoever is in 1st in each league by winning percentage to whoever is tops in each league in KRACH. Much better way to determine who the best team is supposed to be.)
Had the Engineers beaten Princeton, they'd be in 16th instead of 17th, where they'd been in 15th before this weekend's games. So why the drop? Well, the biggest reasons were Union's loss to Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence getting swept by Northeastern. The Dutchmen and Saints had been providing RPI boosts thanks to their position in the Top 20 of RPI. But no longer.
Old and busted: The TUC cliff.
New hotness: The RPI bonus cliff.
16. Minnesota Duluth .533
17. Rensselaer .532
18. Minnesota State .530
19. Minnesota .524
22. Bowling Green .522
--
21. Holy Cross .521
22. Union .518
23. Dartmouth .517
24. Robert Morris .517
25. Michigan Tech .515
26. St. Lawrence .514
Quality wins
Boston College (#10, at home)
Yale (#12, at home)
Lost quality wins
Union (#22, at home and on the road)
St. Lawrence (#26, on the road)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#4, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#8, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Cornell (#5, at home) - Jan 15
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Yale (#12, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#4, on the road) - Feb 12
That's a loss of three out of five quality wins - two of which were on the road - off the Engineers' docket, providing the biggest change to their RPI, the most crucial aspect of the PWR (note that, whether Rensselaer is in the Top 20 is irrelevant to this part of the discussion, although they're going to struggle in PWR generally if they aren't).
St. Lawrence took a huge tumble down the RPI and PWR standings when they were swept by a Northeastern team that seems to have flipped a switch, having been awful early in the year and practically unstoppable now. While the Huskies are pretty good now, RPI takes the entire season into account, and NU started the year 2-12-3, both of their wins coming against Colgate.
Northeastern may prove to be a problem for the ECAC writ-large, as they are now 4-0-1 against the conference, their draw coming at Quinnipiac of all teams. That's a huge boost for Hockey East against the ECAC, against whom they're otherwise struggling for the most part - 18-26-3 without the Huskies' contribution.
As for the Saints, losing to Clarkson last night only exacerbated the situation. They were in the tournament last week as a #3 seed, ranked #10 overall in PWR. This week? Not just out, but way out, free-falling 15 spots in one weekend to #25. That underscores that, even now that it's January, it's still too early to take major stock in the Pairwise. There's still a lot that can happen in a hurry. St. Lawrence especially is in a situation where they need things to turn around quickly if they're going to contend for an at-large spot.
It should go without saying that a win over Cornell on Friday would be pretty big for the Engineers. It would provide another quality win (at home, but let's not quibble here), it would move them into 2nd place in the ECAC, and it would be a solid RPI boost all at the same time. Before considering any other game this week, a win over the Big Red would move Rensselaer back up to 15th on its own (on RPI).
Again, only a couple of comparisons worth looking at. Otherwise, it's just straight RPI.
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - A scoreless tie with UNH was broken with under 3 minutes left in regulation as the River Hawks beat the Wildcats 1-0, keeping this comparison firmly in UML's hands. The win over UNH basically keeps COp as it was last week, and we won't get another crack at flipping this one until January 29, when the Engineers visit Brown. A win over the Bears would help, but wouldn't flip COp by itself. The bigger one comes in February when UNH visits Lowell for the other half of the series. Even a tie in that game would be very helpful, especially if paired with a Rensselaer win over Brown. But nothing can really change unless the Engineers catch UML in RPI as well, which means we're rooting against the River Hawks for the foreseeable future.
Yale (H2H win) - The Bulldogs' 4-0 win over the Sun Devils cancels out any advantage the Engineers could have gotten on Yale through ASU (both were 1.000 against the Sun Devils), but thanks in part to their 1-1 tie with Michigan Tech, they're within striking distance in RPI. Losses to Brown would not only help the Engineers catch them in RPI (assuming Rensselaer can win at home), it would also be potential COp boost provided the Bears can take at least 3 out of 4 points this weekend. With the head-to-head win, only one out of RPI/COp needs to be flipped.
The Yale comparison can be flipped in Rensselaer's favor this week given the right set of circumstances. As far as I can tell, currently losing comparisons with Notre Dame, Penn State, Minnesota Duluth, and Denver can also be flipped in the right circumstances (all on RPI, of course). Gonna be optimistic and not get into winning comparisons that can be flipped in the wrong circumstances - rest assured there are probably more than a handful, including...
St. Lawrence (H2H win) - Gonna mention the Saints here if only because they're a sticky situation. The Engineers definitely want them up in the Top 20 of RPI, but they're also a possible rival for at-large positioning. So SLU, right now, is a big Catch-22. Certainly a team worth monitoring closely despite the current 2-1 comparison win on RPI/H2H. On COp, the only non-conference teams both Rensselaer and SLU played were UNH and Miami - and SLU beat UNH and split with Miami (the ECAC won every game against the NCHC this year except for these two Miami games), making that a wash and basically making COp hinge on the final ECAC standings, with the Mayor's Cup a possible difference maker.
Sitting on the Boston College and Union comparisons this week until matchups crop up in the coming weeks that will make them worth talking about again. Dartmouth may become more interesting in the near future depending on the results of this coming week.
A best-case for the Engineers this week, with a sweep and lots of favorable help elsewhere, and they could pull up into the tournament field for next weekend, for sure, but not very far into it - probably no better than 14 PWR (although I've found one scenario where they're 13th).
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineer Cheering Section
Friday
St. Lawrence over Harvard - 3
Dartmouth over Clarkson - 3 (Dartmouth much closer to the Top 20 for potential future win against them)
Union over Colgate - 3
Weekend series
Brown over Yale - 1/4 (Although Yale winning at least helps keep the quality win bonus higher)
New Hampshire over Northeastern - 5
Boston College over Boston University - 4/5
UMass over UMass-Lowell - 4
Merrimack over Notre Dame - 4
Michigan over Ohio State - 5
Wisconsin over Penn State - 4
Michigan State over Minnesota - 4
Bentley over RIT - 5
Alaska over Northern Michigan - 5
Alaska-Anchorage over Lake Superior State - 5
Michigan Tech over Minnesota State - 4
St. Cloud State over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Western Michigan over Denver - 4/5
Arizona State over Bemidji State - 5
Saturday
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth - 3 (Engineers have a win against SLU, only a prospective one with Big Green)
Harvard over Clarkson - 3 (Prospective road win with Harvard, home with Clarkson)
Union over Cornell - 3
Miami over Bowling Green - 5
Tuesday
Quinnipiac over Maine - 2
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 15: Brown at Yale
Saturday, January 16: Yale at Brown
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Rensselaer played just one game this week, skating to a 3-3 draw with Princeton. That's not a great result, but taken by itself, it really didn't change much of anything. In fact, even if the Engineers had beaten the Tigers, they still would have seen their Pairwise ranking decrease.
Here's what it currently looks like.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. North Dakota*
3. St. Cloud State
4. Harvard
5. Cornell
6. Providence*
7. Omaha
8. Michigan*
9. Boston University
10. Boston College
11. Notre Dame
12. Yale
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Denver
15. Penn State
16. Minnesota Duluth
17. Rensselaer
18. Minnesota State*
23. Robert Morris*
Last in: UMass-Lowell, Denver
First out: Penn State, Minnesota Duluth
In since last week: Boston College, Denver
Out since last week: St. Lawrence, Penn State
League breakdown: 5 HEA, 4 ECAC, 4 NCHC, 1 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
(Since Rensselaer's out of the tournament right now and nothing major has changed other than what's listed above, we'll forego the projected bracket this week. Also note - I decided to change the presumed autobid from whoever is in 1st in each league by winning percentage to whoever is tops in each league in KRACH. Much better way to determine who the best team is supposed to be.)
Had the Engineers beaten Princeton, they'd be in 16th instead of 17th, where they'd been in 15th before this weekend's games. So why the drop? Well, the biggest reasons were Union's loss to Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence getting swept by Northeastern. The Dutchmen and Saints had been providing RPI boosts thanks to their position in the Top 20 of RPI. But no longer.
Old and busted: The TUC cliff.
New hotness: The RPI bonus cliff.
16. Minnesota Duluth .533
17. Rensselaer .532
18. Minnesota State .530
19. Minnesota .524
22. Bowling Green .522
--
21. Holy Cross .521
22. Union .518
23. Dartmouth .517
24. Robert Morris .517
25. Michigan Tech .515
26. St. Lawrence .514
Quality wins
Boston College (#10, at home)
Yale (#12, at home)
Lost quality wins
Union (#22, at home and on the road)
St. Lawrence (#26, on the road)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#4, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#8, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#13, on the road)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Cornell (#5, at home) - Jan 15
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Yale (#12, on the road) - Jan 30
Harvard (#4, on the road) - Feb 12
That's a loss of three out of five quality wins - two of which were on the road - off the Engineers' docket, providing the biggest change to their RPI, the most crucial aspect of the PWR (note that, whether Rensselaer is in the Top 20 is irrelevant to this part of the discussion, although they're going to struggle in PWR generally if they aren't).
St. Lawrence took a huge tumble down the RPI and PWR standings when they were swept by a Northeastern team that seems to have flipped a switch, having been awful early in the year and practically unstoppable now. While the Huskies are pretty good now, RPI takes the entire season into account, and NU started the year 2-12-3, both of their wins coming against Colgate.
Northeastern may prove to be a problem for the ECAC writ-large, as they are now 4-0-1 against the conference, their draw coming at Quinnipiac of all teams. That's a huge boost for Hockey East against the ECAC, against whom they're otherwise struggling for the most part - 18-26-3 without the Huskies' contribution.
As for the Saints, losing to Clarkson last night only exacerbated the situation. They were in the tournament last week as a #3 seed, ranked #10 overall in PWR. This week? Not just out, but way out, free-falling 15 spots in one weekend to #25. That underscores that, even now that it's January, it's still too early to take major stock in the Pairwise. There's still a lot that can happen in a hurry. St. Lawrence especially is in a situation where they need things to turn around quickly if they're going to contend for an at-large spot.
It should go without saying that a win over Cornell on Friday would be pretty big for the Engineers. It would provide another quality win (at home, but let's not quibble here), it would move them into 2nd place in the ECAC, and it would be a solid RPI boost all at the same time. Before considering any other game this week, a win over the Big Red would move Rensselaer back up to 15th on its own (on RPI).
Again, only a couple of comparisons worth looking at. Otherwise, it's just straight RPI.
UMass-Lowell (H2H loss) - A scoreless tie with UNH was broken with under 3 minutes left in regulation as the River Hawks beat the Wildcats 1-0, keeping this comparison firmly in UML's hands. The win over UNH basically keeps COp as it was last week, and we won't get another crack at flipping this one until January 29, when the Engineers visit Brown. A win over the Bears would help, but wouldn't flip COp by itself. The bigger one comes in February when UNH visits Lowell for the other half of the series. Even a tie in that game would be very helpful, especially if paired with a Rensselaer win over Brown. But nothing can really change unless the Engineers catch UML in RPI as well, which means we're rooting against the River Hawks for the foreseeable future.
Yale (H2H win) - The Bulldogs' 4-0 win over the Sun Devils cancels out any advantage the Engineers could have gotten on Yale through ASU (both were 1.000 against the Sun Devils), but thanks in part to their 1-1 tie with Michigan Tech, they're within striking distance in RPI. Losses to Brown would not only help the Engineers catch them in RPI (assuming Rensselaer can win at home), it would also be potential COp boost provided the Bears can take at least 3 out of 4 points this weekend. With the head-to-head win, only one out of RPI/COp needs to be flipped.
The Yale comparison can be flipped in Rensselaer's favor this week given the right set of circumstances. As far as I can tell, currently losing comparisons with Notre Dame, Penn State, Minnesota Duluth, and Denver can also be flipped in the right circumstances (all on RPI, of course). Gonna be optimistic and not get into winning comparisons that can be flipped in the wrong circumstances - rest assured there are probably more than a handful, including...
St. Lawrence (H2H win) - Gonna mention the Saints here if only because they're a sticky situation. The Engineers definitely want them up in the Top 20 of RPI, but they're also a possible rival for at-large positioning. So SLU, right now, is a big Catch-22. Certainly a team worth monitoring closely despite the current 2-1 comparison win on RPI/H2H. On COp, the only non-conference teams both Rensselaer and SLU played were UNH and Miami - and SLU beat UNH and split with Miami (the ECAC won every game against the NCHC this year except for these two Miami games), making that a wash and basically making COp hinge on the final ECAC standings, with the Mayor's Cup a possible difference maker.
Sitting on the Boston College and Union comparisons this week until matchups crop up in the coming weeks that will make them worth talking about again. Dartmouth may become more interesting in the near future depending on the results of this coming week.
A best-case for the Engineers this week, with a sweep and lots of favorable help elsewhere, and they could pull up into the tournament field for next weekend, for sure, but not very far into it - probably no better than 14 PWR (although I've found one scenario where they're 13th).
The key for the cheering section:
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Engineer Cheering Section
Friday
St. Lawrence over Harvard - 3
Dartmouth over Clarkson - 3 (Dartmouth much closer to the Top 20 for potential future win against them)
Union over Colgate - 3
Weekend series
Brown over Yale - 1/4 (Although Yale winning at least helps keep the quality win bonus higher)
New Hampshire over Northeastern - 5
Boston College over Boston University - 4/5
UMass over UMass-Lowell - 4
Merrimack over Notre Dame - 4
Michigan over Ohio State - 5
Wisconsin over Penn State - 4
Michigan State over Minnesota - 4
Bentley over RIT - 5
Alaska over Northern Michigan - 5
Alaska-Anchorage over Lake Superior State - 5
Michigan Tech over Minnesota State - 4
St. Cloud State over Minnesota Duluth - 4
Western Michigan over Denver - 4/5
Arizona State over Bemidji State - 5
Saturday
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth - 3 (Engineers have a win against SLU, only a prospective one with Big Green)
Harvard over Clarkson - 3 (Prospective road win with Harvard, home with Clarkson)
Union over Cornell - 3
Miami over Bowling Green - 5
Tuesday
Quinnipiac over Maine - 2
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 15: Brown at Yale
Saturday, January 16: Yale at Brown
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Yale
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College; St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Engineer Bracketology: Week 1
Well, we did promise that we'd do this if the Engineers were in striking distance in January. And it's January. And they are. And a promise is a promise.
Welcome to Engineer Bracketology. Each Wednesday, from now until the end of the season (or when it seems pointless to talk about, whichever comes first), we'll break down the NCAA field, show you where the Engineers line up, and talk about what needs to happen (besides the most important element, just keep winning) to boost their standing.
As a quick reminder, there are three elements to the PairWise Rankings (PWR), the objective method by which the field is chosen:
* Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)
* Record against Common Opponents (COp)
* Head-to-head wins (H2H)
And, as always, because RPI is both the name of a PWR criteria and the preferred nomenclature for our fair school, we use "Rensselaer" in order to make sure there's no confusion when referring to the Engineers. For more information, click here.
Here's the current PWR situation.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. Harvard
3. Omaha
4. St. Cloud State
5. North Dakota*
6. Providence*
7. Cornell
8. Michigan
9. Yale
10. St. Lawrence
11. Penn State*
12. Boston University
13. Notre Dame
14. UMass-Lowell
15. Rensselaer
16. Boston College
17. Minnesota State*
23. Holy Cross*
Last in: Notre Dame, UMass-Lowell
First out: Rensselaer, Boston College
League breakdown: 5 ECAC, 4 HEA, 3 NCHC, 2 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Albany's hosts are Rensselaer (15 PWR) and Union (18 PWR), Worcester is Holy Cross (23 PWR and leading AHA), Cincinnati is Miami (28 PWR), and St. Paul is Minnesota (19 PWR). Worth keeping in mind when it comes to placement, as hosts are required to be placed in their hosted regional (which could get messy if Rensselaer and Union both manage to qualify). For right now, though, it's just Holy Cross who has to be in a place, everyone else is (somewhat) fungible.
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Providence
3. St. Lawrence
4. Holy Cross
Albany
1. Harvard
2. Cornell
3. Boston University
4. UMass-Lowell
Cincinnati
1. Omaha
2. Michigan
3. Yale
4. Notre Dame
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. North Dakota
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota State
Been a while since I did this, so I'm a bit rusty and this may not comport with more professional bracketlogists. Basically, the rule of thumb is that the NCAA will place #1 seeds in their closest available regional starting with #1 overall and working down. Anywhere that requires travel of 400 miles or more is a flight, and the NCAA has traditionally tried to keep the number of flights down as much as they can while maintaining bracket integrity and ensuring that there are no intra-conference matchups in the first round (although, funny enough, 5 of the 8 first round matchups feature teams who were formerly in the same conference, some quite recently). In each regional, it's 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3. Winners compete for a berth in the Frozen Four.
So yes, as of now, that's a crazy five ECAC teams in the tournament, with an option on a sixth - and there eight ECAC teams including Union and Dartmouth that are within striking distance of the field. It seems, right now, that three will be a very bare minimum for the ECAC, and four a very strong likelihood. Five isn't out of the question, either. Six is probably a stretch.
Because there are only three Pairwise criteria, and the Engineers only face off this season against 21 of the 59 other programs, RPI is all that matters in the vast majority of comparisons. If two teams in a comparison don't play each other in a given year, COp simply doesn't matter because RPI is the tiebreaker (it also doesn't matter at all when a season series is split, or tied, so Miami can be treated like any other non-opponent in this respect). So in relation to how comparisons are flipped when looking at teams Rensselaer didn't play this year, it's exclusively a matter of having a better RPI. Generally, that means rooting against such teams.
We can, however, look more in depth at comparisons with teams the Engineers have played and either beaten or lost to. We'll ignore most ECAC comparisons for the time being, because there are far too many moving parts when it comes to COp/H2H this early.
Alaska-Anchorage: This is very cut and dried, and won't have to be brought up again, because it's a guaranteed loss for the Engineers. Just something to note. Rensselaer could win all of its remaining games while UAA loses all of theirs, and the Engineers still lose this comparison 2-1 on COp and H2H, just as they are now.
The reason is simple - the only two common opponents with the Seawolves this season are Alaska and Arizona State. The Engineers swept ASU but lost their only game to UAF, giving them a combined winning percentage of 1.000. Meanwhile, UAA beat ASU (barely, in OT, but it counts) and, in the first two out of at least four games against the Nanooks, lost and tied. That gives UAA a combined winning percentage of 1.250, which, when added to their head-to-head win over the Engineers, gives UAA the comparison win. Even if UAA loses their next two games against the Nanooks, they'll still have a combined winning percentage of 1.125 thanks to that tie they've already got, and Rensselaer can't rise above the 1.000 they have now.
This is a perfect illustration on the difference in how COp is now calculated. Before, the Engineers would have won with a 2-1-0 record against COp against 1-1-1 for UAA. But now, it's a matter of adding each individual winning percentage against each individual team. There are pros and cons to both methods, but it'll look awful strange at the end of the year if UAF sweeps UAA in February and the Seawolves still win COp despite a 2-1-0 and 1-3-1 total record difference.
At the moment it's not keeping Rensselaer out of the tournament (adding this comparison wouldn't move them ahead of Lowell), but it does stand as a possibility that the losses in Alaska could have an outsized impact on the Engineers' NCAA hopes.
As an aside, the Nanooks themselves are not a problem specifically because their only two COp are UAA and Arizona State - and the Nanooks lost to the Sun Devils. Otherwise, it's the same problem. So should the Engineers squeak into the tournament, ASU's first ever Division I victory -and Rensselaer's home sweep - could be the difference. It's the same 2-1-0/1-1-1 COp records, but it's how those games are divided up among opponents that makes this one a win for the Engineers, and a permanent one unless the wide RPI gap narrows (at which point it won't matter anymore).
UMass-Lowell: This, right now, is the most interesting comparison as the other of two comparisons that Rensselaer loses to a team they are ahead of in RPI. They fall 2-1, so it is imperative, as with any comparison with a team the Engineers have lost the season series to, that they win the COp comparison.
And that might be changing in Rensselaer's favor soon. Right now, COp is 1.500 to 1.000 in UML's favor based on common opponents of Brown (both tied) and Clarkson (Engineers tied, River Hawks won). But UML has yet to play two important Hockey East opponents that Rensselaer has beaten - New Hampshire and Boston College. Once that happens, the Engineers COp will increase by 2.000. UML also has a pair of games coming up with Arizona State. UML should be huge favorites at home, but even a single draw would be big for Rensselaer.
And would you look at that - UML plays UNH on Friday. Should the Wildcats win, that would flip this comparison to the Engineers - 2-1 on RPI/COp. If it's a tie, it would likely flip 1-1 on RPI with COp as a tie. So we're rooting hard for UML to lose at least once to UNH and BC this season, though they don't face the Eagles until late February.
But RPI is very close anyway in this comparison, so as a general rule of thumb, we're rooting against UML in Hockey East play right now.
Boston College: 2-0 RPI/H2H win for the Engineers at the moment. Obviously, we'd like to possibly win COp here as well as a hedge against BC's RPI improving (as it likely will), so the first game of the Beanpot against Harvard will be a big one here. A Crimson win would give Rensselaer a permanent edge in COp against Harvard, since it's BC's only game with them this season and the Engineers have already tied them.
The only COp right now is UNH, who both teams have beaten. BC plays them again in February - immediately after the Harvard game, so a UNH win or tie would be huge, too. No matter what else happens, a Harvard win in the first round of the Beanpot (since Beanpot games can't tie) and a UNH win or tie the following Friday would go a long way toward making this comparison a win no matter what the RPI is - but those BC-UML games at the end of the regular season loom large, too.
Union: Because of the unique nature of the series with the Dutchmen, the Engineers can practically guarantee themselves a comparison win with their rivals by winning the Mayor's Cup game. That would produce a third H2H point, enough to trump both RPI and COp completely, barring a playoff meeting.
One other thing about Union - if their RPI stays in the Top 20 (they are currently 18th), the Engineers get two quality win bonuses on a graduating scale depending on how high the Dutchmen are ranked. So there's a vested interest in Union remaining as high as they can in RPI - just not too high.
Speaking of which - here's the bonus cutoff. Teams the Engineers have defeated (and thus can get RPI bonuses for) will be bolded in our weekly RPI quality win bonus aggregate.
16. Boston University - .541
17. Minnesota State - .537
18. Union - .527
19. Minnesota - .526
20. Bowling Green - .525
---
21. Denver - .525
22. Holy Cross - .525
23. Dartmouth - .523
24. Minnesota-Duluth - .513
25. Robert Morris - .512
Quality wins
Yale (#9, at home)
St. Lawrence (#10, on the road)
Boston College (#14, at home)
Union (#18, at home and on the road)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#2, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#8, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#12, on the road)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Cornell (#7, at home) - Jan 15
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Union (#18, neutral ice) - Jan 23
Yale (#9, on the road) - Jan 30
St. Lawrence (#10, at home) - Feb 5
Harvard (#2, on the road) - Feb 12
One other comparison worth mentioning due to games this week:
Yale: It's a long-shot, but Arizona State popping up in the Bulldogs' schedule this week could provide an unexpected and semi-unusual COp boost if the Sun Devils can get a result out in the Valley of the Sun. Normally, it makes the most sense to root for the ECAC in any non-conference games, but this could be a minor exception, if only because ASU is an independent, with a schedule that draws from pretty much all over the place, so their impact on overall league RPI is blunted a little here. Rensselaer's H2H win over Yale makes this comparison one that could be flipped, especially with an Engineers win over Princeton on Thursday (Yale lost to the Tigers).
General rules of thumb for the order in which we are cheering for other teams. Relevant numbers are listed next to the games/series.
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Not including Rensselaer's games - the elimination of the old TUC cliff, for those that remember that, basically eliminates any real impetus to succeed by losing. Let's go Red.
Engineer Cheering Section
Thursday
Harvard over Boston University - 1/2/4
Union over Quinnipiac - 1/3 (despite Union getting a big RPI bonus themselves from beating QU)
Weekend series
Boston College over Providence - 3/5
Michigan State over Michigan - 4
Minnesota over Penn State - 4 (although Minnesota is not far back either)
Cornell over Merrimack - 2
Colgate over Maine - 2
St. Lawrence over Northeastern - 2/3
Miami over Minnesota-Duluth - 4
Western Michigan over Notre Dame - 4/5
Northern Michigan over Minnesota State - 4
Alaska over Alabama-Huntsville - 5
Alaska-Anchorage over Bemidji State - 5
Bentley over Robert Morris - 5
Friday
New Hampshire over UMass-Lowell - 1/4
Union over Princeton - 3
Arizona State over Yale - 1/4/5
Dartmouth over Vermont - 2
Saturday
Harvard over Quinnipiac - 1 (not terribly important either way, both way out in front on RPI/PWR)
Sunday
Yale over Michigan Tech OR UConn - 2/3
Dartmouth over Holy Cross - 2
Tuesday
Clarkson over St. Lawrence - 4 (SLU win at least helps QWB)
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 8: UMass-Lowell at New Hampshire
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
Welcome to Engineer Bracketology. Each Wednesday, from now until the end of the season (or when it seems pointless to talk about, whichever comes first), we'll break down the NCAA field, show you where the Engineers line up, and talk about what needs to happen (besides the most important element, just keep winning) to boost their standing.
As a quick reminder, there are three elements to the PairWise Rankings (PWR), the objective method by which the field is chosen:
* Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)
* Record against Common Opponents (COp)
* Head-to-head wins (H2H)
And, as always, because RPI is both the name of a PWR criteria and the preferred nomenclature for our fair school, we use "Rensselaer" in order to make sure there's no confusion when referring to the Engineers. For more information, click here.
Here's the current PWR situation.
1. Quinnipiac*
2. Harvard
3. Omaha
4. St. Cloud State
5. North Dakota*
6. Providence*
7. Cornell
8. Michigan
9. Yale
10. St. Lawrence
11. Penn State*
12. Boston University
13. Notre Dame
14. UMass-Lowell
15. Rensselaer
16. Boston College
17. Minnesota State*
23. Holy Cross*
Last in: Notre Dame, UMass-Lowell
First out: Rensselaer, Boston College
League breakdown: 5 ECAC, 4 HEA, 3 NCHC, 2 B1G, 1 WCHA, 1 AHA
Albany's hosts are Rensselaer (15 PWR) and Union (18 PWR), Worcester is Holy Cross (23 PWR and leading AHA), Cincinnati is Miami (28 PWR), and St. Paul is Minnesota (19 PWR). Worth keeping in mind when it comes to placement, as hosts are required to be placed in their hosted regional (which could get messy if Rensselaer and Union both manage to qualify). For right now, though, it's just Holy Cross who has to be in a place, everyone else is (somewhat) fungible.
Worcester
1. Quinnipiac
2. Providence
3. St. Lawrence
4. Holy Cross
Albany
1. Harvard
2. Cornell
3. Boston University
4. UMass-Lowell
Cincinnati
1. Omaha
2. Michigan
3. Yale
4. Notre Dame
St. Paul
1. St. Cloud State
2. North Dakota
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota State
Been a while since I did this, so I'm a bit rusty and this may not comport with more professional bracketlogists. Basically, the rule of thumb is that the NCAA will place #1 seeds in their closest available regional starting with #1 overall and working down. Anywhere that requires travel of 400 miles or more is a flight, and the NCAA has traditionally tried to keep the number of flights down as much as they can while maintaining bracket integrity and ensuring that there are no intra-conference matchups in the first round (although, funny enough, 5 of the 8 first round matchups feature teams who were formerly in the same conference, some quite recently). In each regional, it's 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3. Winners compete for a berth in the Frozen Four.
So yes, as of now, that's a crazy five ECAC teams in the tournament, with an option on a sixth - and there eight ECAC teams including Union and Dartmouth that are within striking distance of the field. It seems, right now, that three will be a very bare minimum for the ECAC, and four a very strong likelihood. Five isn't out of the question, either. Six is probably a stretch.
Because there are only three Pairwise criteria, and the Engineers only face off this season against 21 of the 59 other programs, RPI is all that matters in the vast majority of comparisons. If two teams in a comparison don't play each other in a given year, COp simply doesn't matter because RPI is the tiebreaker (it also doesn't matter at all when a season series is split, or tied, so Miami can be treated like any other non-opponent in this respect). So in relation to how comparisons are flipped when looking at teams Rensselaer didn't play this year, it's exclusively a matter of having a better RPI. Generally, that means rooting against such teams.
We can, however, look more in depth at comparisons with teams the Engineers have played and either beaten or lost to. We'll ignore most ECAC comparisons for the time being, because there are far too many moving parts when it comes to COp/H2H this early.
Alaska-Anchorage: This is very cut and dried, and won't have to be brought up again, because it's a guaranteed loss for the Engineers. Just something to note. Rensselaer could win all of its remaining games while UAA loses all of theirs, and the Engineers still lose this comparison 2-1 on COp and H2H, just as they are now.
The reason is simple - the only two common opponents with the Seawolves this season are Alaska and Arizona State. The Engineers swept ASU but lost their only game to UAF, giving them a combined winning percentage of 1.000. Meanwhile, UAA beat ASU (barely, in OT, but it counts) and, in the first two out of at least four games against the Nanooks, lost and tied. That gives UAA a combined winning percentage of 1.250, which, when added to their head-to-head win over the Engineers, gives UAA the comparison win. Even if UAA loses their next two games against the Nanooks, they'll still have a combined winning percentage of 1.125 thanks to that tie they've already got, and Rensselaer can't rise above the 1.000 they have now.
This is a perfect illustration on the difference in how COp is now calculated. Before, the Engineers would have won with a 2-1-0 record against COp against 1-1-1 for UAA. But now, it's a matter of adding each individual winning percentage against each individual team. There are pros and cons to both methods, but it'll look awful strange at the end of the year if UAF sweeps UAA in February and the Seawolves still win COp despite a 2-1-0 and 1-3-1 total record difference.
At the moment it's not keeping Rensselaer out of the tournament (adding this comparison wouldn't move them ahead of Lowell), but it does stand as a possibility that the losses in Alaska could have an outsized impact on the Engineers' NCAA hopes.
As an aside, the Nanooks themselves are not a problem specifically because their only two COp are UAA and Arizona State - and the Nanooks lost to the Sun Devils. Otherwise, it's the same problem. So should the Engineers squeak into the tournament, ASU's first ever Division I victory -and Rensselaer's home sweep - could be the difference. It's the same 2-1-0/1-1-1 COp records, but it's how those games are divided up among opponents that makes this one a win for the Engineers, and a permanent one unless the wide RPI gap narrows (at which point it won't matter anymore).
UMass-Lowell: This, right now, is the most interesting comparison as the other of two comparisons that Rensselaer loses to a team they are ahead of in RPI. They fall 2-1, so it is imperative, as with any comparison with a team the Engineers have lost the season series to, that they win the COp comparison.
And that might be changing in Rensselaer's favor soon. Right now, COp is 1.500 to 1.000 in UML's favor based on common opponents of Brown (both tied) and Clarkson (Engineers tied, River Hawks won). But UML has yet to play two important Hockey East opponents that Rensselaer has beaten - New Hampshire and Boston College. Once that happens, the Engineers COp will increase by 2.000. UML also has a pair of games coming up with Arizona State. UML should be huge favorites at home, but even a single draw would be big for Rensselaer.
And would you look at that - UML plays UNH on Friday. Should the Wildcats win, that would flip this comparison to the Engineers - 2-1 on RPI/COp. If it's a tie, it would likely flip 1-1 on RPI with COp as a tie. So we're rooting hard for UML to lose at least once to UNH and BC this season, though they don't face the Eagles until late February.
But RPI is very close anyway in this comparison, so as a general rule of thumb, we're rooting against UML in Hockey East play right now.
Boston College: 2-0 RPI/H2H win for the Engineers at the moment. Obviously, we'd like to possibly win COp here as well as a hedge against BC's RPI improving (as it likely will), so the first game of the Beanpot against Harvard will be a big one here. A Crimson win would give Rensselaer a permanent edge in COp against Harvard, since it's BC's only game with them this season and the Engineers have already tied them.
The only COp right now is UNH, who both teams have beaten. BC plays them again in February - immediately after the Harvard game, so a UNH win or tie would be huge, too. No matter what else happens, a Harvard win in the first round of the Beanpot (since Beanpot games can't tie) and a UNH win or tie the following Friday would go a long way toward making this comparison a win no matter what the RPI is - but those BC-UML games at the end of the regular season loom large, too.
Union: Because of the unique nature of the series with the Dutchmen, the Engineers can practically guarantee themselves a comparison win with their rivals by winning the Mayor's Cup game. That would produce a third H2H point, enough to trump both RPI and COp completely, barring a playoff meeting.
One other thing about Union - if their RPI stays in the Top 20 (they are currently 18th), the Engineers get two quality win bonuses on a graduating scale depending on how high the Dutchmen are ranked. So there's a vested interest in Union remaining as high as they can in RPI - just not too high.
Speaking of which - here's the bonus cutoff. Teams the Engineers have defeated (and thus can get RPI bonuses for) will be bolded in our weekly RPI quality win bonus aggregate.
16. Boston University - .541
17. Minnesota State - .537
18. Union - .527
19. Minnesota - .526
20. Bowling Green - .525
---
21. Denver - .525
22. Holy Cross - .525
23. Dartmouth - .523
24. Minnesota-Duluth - .513
25. Robert Morris - .512
Quality wins
Yale (#9, at home)
St. Lawrence (#10, on the road)
Boston College (#14, at home)
Union (#18, at home and on the road)
Missed opportunities
Harvard (#2, neutral ice and at home)
Michigan (#8, at home)
UMass-Lowell (#12, on the road)
Upcoming opportunities in the next 10 games
Cornell (#7, at home) - Jan 15
Quinnipiac (#1, on the road) - Jan 21
Union (#18, neutral ice) - Jan 23
Yale (#9, on the road) - Jan 30
St. Lawrence (#10, at home) - Feb 5
Harvard (#2, on the road) - Feb 12
One other comparison worth mentioning due to games this week:
Yale: It's a long-shot, but Arizona State popping up in the Bulldogs' schedule this week could provide an unexpected and semi-unusual COp boost if the Sun Devils can get a result out in the Valley of the Sun. Normally, it makes the most sense to root for the ECAC in any non-conference games, but this could be a minor exception, if only because ASU is an independent, with a schedule that draws from pretty much all over the place, so their impact on overall league RPI is blunted a little here. Rensselaer's H2H win over Yale makes this comparison one that could be flipped, especially with an Engineers win over Princeton on Thursday (Yale lost to the Tigers).
General rules of thumb for the order in which we are cheering for other teams. Relevant numbers are listed next to the games/series.
1. Wherever there is direct COp assistance
2. For the ECAC out-of-conference
3. For improved quality win bonuses (QWB)
4. Against teams ahead of or just behind Rensselaer in the RPI or PWR
5. For non-conference opponents
Not including Rensselaer's games - the elimination of the old TUC cliff, for those that remember that, basically eliminates any real impetus to succeed by losing. Let's go Red.
Engineer Cheering Section
Thursday
Harvard over Boston University - 1/2/4
Union over Quinnipiac - 1/3 (despite Union getting a big RPI bonus themselves from beating QU)
Weekend series
Boston College over Providence - 3/5
Michigan State over Michigan - 4
Minnesota over Penn State - 4 (although Minnesota is not far back either)
Cornell over Merrimack - 2
Colgate over Maine - 2
St. Lawrence over Northeastern - 2/3
Miami over Minnesota-Duluth - 4
Western Michigan over Notre Dame - 4/5
Northern Michigan over Minnesota State - 4
Alaska over Alabama-Huntsville - 5
Alaska-Anchorage over Bemidji State - 5
Bentley over Robert Morris - 5
Friday
New Hampshire over UMass-Lowell - 1/4
Union over Princeton - 3
Arizona State over Yale - 1/4/5
Dartmouth over Vermont - 2
Saturday
Harvard over Quinnipiac - 1 (not terribly important either way, both way out in front on RPI/PWR)
Sunday
Yale over Michigan Tech OR UConn - 2/3
Dartmouth over Holy Cross - 2
Tuesday
Clarkson over St. Lawrence - 4 (SLU win at least helps QWB)
Important COp/H2H games for currently relevant comparisons
Friday, January 8: UMass-Lowell at New Hampshire
Saturday, January 23: Union vs. Rensselaer (Mayor's Cup)
Friday, January 29: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell; Rensselaer at Brown
Saturday, January 30: Arizona State at UMass-Lowell
Monday, February 1: Harvard vs. Boston College (Beanpot)
Friday, February 5: New Hampshire at Boston College
Saturday, February 6: New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell; Clarkson at Rensselaer
Friday, February 26: UMass-Lowell at Boston College
Saturday, February 27: Boston College at UMass-Lowell
Unwinnable comparisons (H2H loss, will lose COp)
Alaska-Anchorage
Clinched comparisons (H2H win, will win COp)
Western Michigan, Bentley
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