The Formula, Revisited

First things first.

Chase Polacek didn't have great games against Clarkson or Cornell, and honestly wasn't stellar last night in Hamilton either, but when you do something like this...



...you can kind of get a pass.

Meanwhile, we thought we'd share the updated look at "the formula" that we brought earlier this year. Recall that we said that in usual years, 3 points for home weekends and 2 points on road weekends would usually be enough to get you a first round bye. Well, let's see where we are with that so far.

The Formula (expected): earned (total deviation)
at Dartmouth/Harvard (2): 2 (0)
at Union/Union (0): 2 (+2)
at Yale/Brown (2): 2 (+2)
Clarkson/St. Lawrence (3): 2 (+1)
at Cornell/Colgate (2): 2 (+1)
Harvard/Dartmouth (3):
Brown/Yale (3):
at Quinnipiac/Princeton (2):
Colgate/Cornell (3):
at St. Lawrence/Clarkson (2):
Princeton/Quinnipiac (3):

Yale: +8
Union: +6
Dartmouth: +3
Princeton: +2
RPI: +1
Clarkson: +1
Brown: -3
Cornell: -3
Quinnipiac: -3
St. Lawrence: -4
Harvard: -6
Colgate: -12

Well, even with a .500 record, the Engineers are still on pace for that magic 25 point mark as long as they can stick to earning an average of 3 points at home and 2 on the road. But there are a few questions that need to be answered.

Why, for instance, is Cornell, who has the same record as RPI in the ECAC, trailing RPI's pace by four points? Two reasons - first, the Big Red have had more home games (and they've been swept at home), and second, they have yet to play their travel partners, Colgate, and RPI does have 2 "bonus" points from beating Union.

And of course, if RPI's still on pace for a bye, how can there be six teams on pace? Well, a couple of reasons for that, too. First, there's a pretty distinct gap right now between the top teams and the bottom teams, so there are more points being gobbled up by the better six squads. That might require an extra point or two by the end of the season to get the bye - remember, occasionally teams have required 26 or 27 points instead of 25 to finish in the top four. Second, as we get farther into the season some teams will probably drop back a bit, given that in any four games between travel partner pairings in a single week, there will be 2 points lost - for instance, this week in Central NY, Union was +2, RPI +0, Cornell -1, and Colgate - 3. Add it all up, and it's -2. So as we have more league games played, either the gap between the top and the bottom of the league will increase and teams will ultimately require more points for the bye, or the gap will decrease and 24 points will be more likely to get the bye.

We've also devised a formula for women's hockey. Generally, a team has needed 28 points over the years to finish in the top four and play at home in the first round of the playoffs. Building off the men's formula, we figure that a team needs to get 3 points in each of its home weekends, 2 in its road weekends, earn a split with the travel partner, and then pick up one other point along the way (either sweeping a home weekend or earning 3 on a road weekend). So to signify this formula, we simply start each team at -1 instead of at 0. Here's where the women stand now:

Cornell: +8
Harvard: +1
RPI: -1
Quinnipiac: -2
Dartmouth: -3
St. Lawrence: -3
Princeton: -3
Yale: -5
Clarkson: -6
Colgate: -7
Brown: -9
Union: -14

Now, this puts some teams at distinct disadvantages. Colgate has to get 2 points against Cornell? Yeah, good luck with that (this coming weekend). We can use this also to figure out which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs. With 18 points as the median cutoff for 8th place, that simply means that any team that is at -11 or lower is in serious danger of missing out. Lookin' at you, Union, but we didn't need a formula to figure that out.

A Brief History of Pumpup

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Or, if you're in Canada, happy Thursday.

Here's a little something I threw together this week. Knowing that the team likes to take the ice to "The Ecstasy of Gold" when the band isn't around (as may well be the case this weekend), I put together a hypothetical introduction video for the forthcoming video board which will be installed at center ice and new sound system. We continue to hear conflicting reports as to when exactly these things will be installed - some have suggested that they will be installed over winter break (they would have between 12 and 14 working days to get the work done between the game against the US Junior Team on Dec. 19 and the Clarkson game on Jan. 7).

I'm not the best photoshopper in the world, as well established here, and I'm not the best video producer either, but I think this video at least gets the gist of it down.

Imagine Houston Field House at 10 minutes to seven on a Saturday night. The zambonis have just left the darkened ice surface. As the countdown clock reaches 9:00, the video board and sound system come to life:



As the video ends, the RPI goaltender hits the ice, and the Pep Band starts to play "Hail, Dear Old Rensselaer" as the team streams over to the west end of the ice to line up for the starting lineups. How pumped up are you at this point?

Obviously, the video could use some tweaking - video segments at the end to represent the current Engineers, maybe changing with each game, for instance - but I've got to say, it would be a perfect, and classy way to use the video board to get the crowd going before the game starts. What do you think?

Every Picture Tells a Story

We're coming up on Labor Day weekend, and even though it may not feel like it outside just yet, we're just three weeks away from hockey at Houston Field House when the women take on the University of Montreal in an exhibition game at 4 p.m. on September 25th ahead of their trip to Wisconsin the following weekend. A week later, the men take part in the Cherry and White intrasquad scrimmage on October 2nd at 4 p.m., to be followed at 7 p.m. by an AHL preseason game between the Adirondack Phantoms and the Albany Devils. Three days after that, on Tuesday, October 5th 7 p.m., the men will face the University of New Brunswick in an exhibition matchup ahead of their trip to Colorado the following weekend.

In the meantime, renovations continue apace at the Field House. We've got some pictures.


This is the first picture we've seen of the new section with the lights on in the Field House. According to what we've found out about the project, the floor level will indeed contain some Let's Go Red space and a mini "Hall of Fame" type area. The second level will house men's hockey offices on one side, women's hockey offices on the other side, and in the middle will be a reception room for Dr. Jackson and her guests, high rollers, donors, recruits, etc.

There are plans for a third level, which may include additional press space, but this will not be included as part of this project at present.



The east side of the Field House is starting to look a little more familiar as the dashers have now been put up on that side, but it's still sans glass. There's still no stage - and there isn't going to be, apparently. The current plan is to put the Pep Band at the top of Section 13 on the north side of the Field House instead of on stage, and the eastern curtain will be moved closer to the glass. The goal is to create a more "intimate" feeling within the Field House, but we'll see just how well it works in a month's time. There are a number of issues for the band especially, having to arrange themselves in the stands.

The old scoreboard is right back up where it normally is. There's been some conflicting reports as to whether it is going to be replaced mid-season (along with the sound system) or whether the replacement will wait until the next offseason, but the components themselves should arrive before the end of the year.

The mid-season replacement may be what's going to happen - according to the site manager, the building will have ice and be habitable for sporting events by the time scheduled events begin again in three weeks, but the renovations themselves will not be completed until December.

With the Field House still lacking in ice, the captains have had to move their practices to Knickerbacker Arena in North Troy.



Here's John Kennedy (center, no helmet) giving the team a pep talk at the end of practice. Visible on the right in the goalie pads and black sweater without a helmet is Jeremy Coupal, the Engineers' new practice goaltender. He replaces Joe Harkenrider, who left the team to focus on his studies, as the 3rd goaltender.

Coupal, a junior Materials Engineering major, started eight games for the RPI club team last season, amassing a 2-6-0 record with a 4.22 GAA and .872 save percentage, with one shutout against Norwich. Before coming to RPI, Coupal was at one point was the starting goaltender at Seton Catholic High School in Plattsburgh. Former RPI practice goalie Jim Palmer, one of the most popular fan favorites in recent history, also attended Seton Catholic, as did former defenseman Glenn Coupal (who is likely related to Jeremy, but we won't know for sure until his RPI biography is released).

Speaking of the club team, the Engineers will have all 14 of their home games at Houston Field House this year, starting on September 24th at 7 p.m. when they host Union. The club team will also host Brown, Merrimack, Quinnipiac, Hudson Valley CC, Roger Williams, Keene State, Westfield State, UConn, Marist, NYU, Vermont, and Norwich this season.

The women are also hard at work at "The Knick." Below, the team takes a few shots on senior goaltender Sonja van der Bliek.



Finally, a quick video of the women taking a few shots.

In Case You've Missed It...

The Record's Ed Weaver has written a blog entry which seems to definitively put to rest most of the remaining questions about next year's coaching staff and recruit class.

Here's the quick and dirty recap.
* Nolan Graham will indeed be the next assistant coach at RPI, replacing Jim Montgomery.
* Jacob Laliberté doesn't appear to be coming in - and it's a maturity issue. His status for 2011 is up in the air, but he would have to return to junior A hockey, whether in the CJHL or elsewhere, in order to remain eligible.
* Patrick Koudys is indeed coming in a year earlier than initially expected, as we reported earlier this week.

* Johnny Rogic is coming - not that we doubted it per se, it's just that Weaver provides the first independent confirmation of his commitment.

Since we haven't had a solid discussion on Rogic yet, here are a couple of highlight videos to show some of his stuff.

Rogic is apparently something of a fan favorite at Alberni Valley. He has his own fan club on Facebook based out of Port Alberni. Here's an isolation shot of him scoring a goal from down low.


This one shows off some of his solid speed - the relevant segment begins about 40 seconds in.


* RPI may be close to a commitment from Penticton defenseman Bo Dolan. He's a 1990 birth year, which means he still has another year left to play junior A. Whether he would be incoming this year or next year is unknown. The defensive corps needs to at least replace Erik Burgdoerfer, Peter Merth, and Christian Jensen, that's accomplished by bringing in Leboeuf, Koudys, and Bailen. Mark Zarbo, who appeared in one game last year, may be functionally replaced by Kevin Beauregard, who we understand practiced on the blueline in the latter half of the season. Whether Dolan would come in this year or next year depends on whether Appert wants a replacement for Bryan Brutlag (who's now a forward) this year or wants Dolan to come in for 2011-12 with Curadi and Quinn to replace Brutlag, Kennedy, and Foss all at once.

Thinking long and hard about it, if RPI can land Dolan, 2010 might make the most sense. Dolan's addition would give the Engineers a total of seven defensemen, eight if you include Brutlag, nine if you include Beauregard. In that sense, Dolan would replace Brutlag as a primary defenseman, Brutlag would be semi-replacing Mark Zarbo as an emergency backup, and Beauregard would be semi-replacing Garett Vassel as a forward who was available for duty on the blueline when absolutely needed. That's the depth at defense that the Engineers need going into 2010-11, considering that they seem to be all set in the scoring and goaltending arenas.

But it's all moot until Chris Heisenberg lets us know that Dolan will be an Engineer.

Like Bailen and Curadi, Dolan likes to scrap. He won't be able to do that in college, but fighters in juniors generally translate into tough hitters in the NCAA. In this clip, Dolan (#22) takes down a guy who's got a couple of inches on him, hanging in there even though he's getting wailed on:


Another Dolan fight, this one another back and forth affair until Dolan (#4) puts the guy on his backside:

Around the Bowl and Down the Hole

First round bye? Let's pretend it looks like cat food.

Tragedy at 60:00 - 10 months later

It doesn't seem like it was that long ago, but a true tragedy unfolded back in January at Houston Field House last season.



Watch it again, just the "injury."



Poor, poor Taylor Davenport. Such a shame that a Division I college hockey player, and a senior, no less, can't keep his head up while shooting the puck off-balance in the final seconds of a game his team was leading by 3 goals. It is truly tragic. At least his teammates showed the ultimate class in the wake of such heartache.

Of course, it wasn't seen that way in Central New York.



Even before he made headlines whining about the referees, Mike Schafer was issuing thinly veiled threats through the media.

Cornell coach Mike Schafer is hoping that Davenport can play one of Cornell's games this weekend against Yale and Brown, but isn't counting on it. Schafer and the Big Red already are looking forward to the rematch with RPI on Feb. 20 at Lynah Rink.

"Our guys will have a long memory when they come back to Lynah," Schafer said.

Cornell fans were angry with Erik Burgdoerfer's role in Davenport's misfortune.

Cornell has had four games with the Engineers at their dump since this tragic event, and haven't headhunted yet (unless you count the aforementioned stripes caterwaul), but they will be returning to Troy for the first time since tragedy struck that night at Houston Field House. Could this be the weekend Mr. Schafer's threats come to fruition? We hope not. We hope the Big Red will comport themselves with same kind of class and panache that they displayed on that fateful night.

Please, dear reader, pause with me a moment, and reflect.


NEVER FORGET (how to skate)
(Total games missed: one)