For Q

It never fails.

An ECAC team gets into the national discussion on which team might be the best in all the land, and the cacophony, especially from out west, is that, of course, there's no way that loser EZAC team could possibly be the best. THEY HAVEN'T PLAYED NE1!!!

Please.

In this case, the team in question is obviously Quinnipiac. There aren't too many other teams out there with the best record in the country and a 19-game unbeaten streak that are still unbeaten in league play. They've earned the right to be in the discussion, but don't tell that to many WCHA fans (most of whom are soon to be either Big Ten or NCHC fans) or even some Hockey East fans.

In fact, I got a tweet earlier last week that basically laid it out like this - "other than the fact that they swept Nebraska-Omaha at home, why should I be impressed with Quinnipiac?"

Ugh.

Let's break this down. Who's got the best record in the nation? Again, that's Quinnipiac.

It's not enough by itself, of course. Niagara has the third best record, but no one is touting them as the third best team in the country. That's because, excuse the repetition, they actually haven't played anyone. KRACH tells us that their strength of schedule is 58th out of 59 teams in the country - only Army has played an easier schedule. So while 17-4-5 Niagara has the nation's third best record and are in the hunt for what could be Atlantic Hockey's first ever at-large bid, they're being pegged as a team that might be in the Top 15, if that. That's fair.

Does Quinnipac deserve similar treatment?

According to KRACH, Quinnipiac has played the 33rd most difficult schedule to date nationally. In a world where there are 59 teams, 33rd is... pretty plain, yes. But then again, Minnesota, who has been number one for a few weeks now, and who many thought would drop down in favor of the Q, is only 27th themselves - yet no one ever asks who THEY'VE played.

Why is that? The answer is pretty simple. They play in the WCHA, which is recognized as a difficult league regardless of the year. They're the place where Herb Brooks won national championships. If they have a similar record to Quinnipiac, they must be better, because they're Minnesota and they play in the WCHA.

That's pretty lame. Determining the top team in the nation shouldn't have anything to do with what a program has done in the past, or the reputation of their conference alone - only what they're doing right now. Right now, the Gophers are one of the best teams in the country, there's no doubt. But look at the metrics - all of those mathematical methods for comparing all of the nation's teams against each other.

Who's #1 in KRACH? Quinnipiac. Who's #1 in the Pairwise, as we get into the month of February? Quinnipiac, and they don't lose a single Pairwise comparison with anyone, including the Gophers. Ratings Percentage Index? Quinnipiac. It's all there - that pretty much concludes the major metrics of comparison right there.

Need more? OK. As we did two years ago when a similar complaint was levied against Yale for having the temerity to lay claim to the title of the best team in the nation, check out the extended list of computer rankings for college hockey as compiled by the Markhams over at rpihockey.net. KASA is basically KRACH 2.0 - it takes into account the impact of home ice advantage when calculating KRACH. The Q's still #1. They're #1 in HEAL. Then they're #2 in four other rankings. Yes, every possible metric is saying that Quinnipiac is either best in the nation or second best, and the ones that say they're second best are the ones you've never heard of.

The fact of the matter is, the ECAC is in an up year. No, they're nowhere near the level they were at in November when certain ECAC backers were claiming that this was the year for five NCAA tournament teams, but three teams in the tournament is looking like a stronger likelihood than it usually ever does, and four doesn't appear to be outside the realm of possibility, which is almost never said about the ECAC (and hasn't happened in quite some time). This is a tough league this season with some very good teams.

In fact, it's such a good league that teams like Cornell and Harvard, who were consensus top-level picks, are struggling to keep their heads above water. Are they underperforming? Sure they are. But that's not the only reason they're in 11th and 12th right now - the league is just very competitive from top to bottom.

That makes it all the more impressive that Quinnipiac has functionally, if not mathematically, clinched the #1 seed in the ECAC tournament with a month left to play. That makes it all the more impressive that they still haven't tasted defeat in league play - and should be a huge boost to their national credentials.

But for some reason, it's not enough. For some reason, a team that's not even in first place in their conference is supposed to be best in the nation.

We know better. Rand Pecknold and his charges are the real deal - for 19 straight games, against some solid competition from within the league and without, they've found ways to win most nights and have at least walked away with a draw. How hard is that to do? The next highest unbeaten streak right now is SIX - and most people think six in a row without losing is pretty good.

Get used to it.

(By the way... we told you Quinnipiac was going to be good.)

Our Ballot

Here's our ballot for this year's ECAC media poll. No apologies. Consider this the power ranking for October - our first power ranking typically comes out at the end of November, since half the league really hasn't gotten underway yet by the end of October.

1. Union - Won everything there was to win in the ECAC last year, went to the Frozen Four, and lose very little. Nuff said.

2. Cornell - Really shouldn't have to explain this.

3. Quinnipiac - They look stupid good on paper, and they have a knack for overachieving vis a vis preseason expectations.

4. Harvard - Showed lots of potential late last year but they have to stop living on the edge.

5. Yale - Scoring talent is still there, answering the defensive call could make for an elite squad.

6. Colgate - Possibly too optimistic here, they have a ridiculous amount of scoring to replace.

7. St. Lawrence - Young guns are going to have to be big for the Saints.

8. RPI - Have to prove they're ready to vie for a top end spot again through growth of younger players, trying not to be too optimistic.

9. Dartmouth - Offense is there, but considerable defensive question marks cloud the outlook significantly.

10. Princeton - Much like RPI, a team with a great deal to prove with the capacity to do just that. Possibly too pessimistic here.

11. Clarkson - Some good upside here, but as mentioned Wednesday, painfully young.

12. Brown - A serious case of "show me something first."

As always, there are certain "bands" that teams seem to fit in that could be somewhat interchangeable. I like the top three as the clearly defined top-tier, but to be honest the rest of the league could (and probably will) be a tossup. And of course once the puck drops I'm sure we'll learn things about those top three, too.

Choices for All-ECAC:
G - Andy Iles, Cornell - Always going against the grain with our preseason goaltender selections. Grosenick will be the choice, but Iles deserves respect for the season he had last year.

D - Danny Biega, Harvard - Crimson's MVP, power play quarterback and also an offensive driver.

D - Mat Bodie, Union - Probably the best two-way defenseman in the league right now.

F - Kyle Flanagan, St. Lawrence - Averaging a point per game in his first three seasons. If only he had stayed healthy...

F - Connor Jones, Quinnipiac - Poised for a big year with a juggernaut supporting cast.

F - Andrew Miller, Yale - For three years he's been a top supporting cast member, is it time for his star turn?

Honorable mention: G Troy Grosenick, Union, D Shayne Gostisbehere, Union, F Kellen Jones, Quinnipiac, F Kenny Agostino, Yale.

Is Yale a Legit #1?

As we discussed with Brian Sullivan on Tuesday's podcast, Yale is the consensus #1 team in the nation according to the two major polls released by USCHO and USA Today, but they are proving a fairly controversial #1 in some parts because of their weak schedule compared to some of the other top teams in the nation.

"If it were just another week with a Hockey East, CCHA, or WCHA team on top of the rankings, it would just be another week, but this is huge. It's the first time in years that an ECAC team has been on top of the polls," Sullivan said on Tuesday. We couldn't agree more - and it's yet another indicator that the ECAC kind of sits off on its own. As a league, it's not on the level of those three "major" conferences, but it's not down on the level of Atlantic Hockey either. Yale is the first #1 to come out of the league in almost eight years.

Here's the source of the largest cacophony - the strength of schedule compared to the other potential #1 teams in the country.

Strength of Schedule Rating
1. North Dakota
4. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Boston College
33. Yale

OK, so Yale's schedule strength is relatively pedestrian, it's true. There are 58 Division I hockey teams, so the 29th rated schedule (Union) is about the median average. Yale's a little bit less than average in their schedule, then. Understandable - the only two nationally ranked teams that they've faced this season are RPI and Union this past weekend, unless you count Dartmouth, unranked when they played the Bulldogs.

It's worth mentioning that, as an Ivy League school, they don't have as many games played. That's another source of contention, especially among people who don't understand the Ivy League's rules on season length. While UND, UMD, and BC have 18, 16, and 16 games played respectively, Yale's only at 12 - and they're going to be there until early January.

Is this the real problem? Well, consider #3 New Hampshire. No one's howling about their placement. They play in Hockey East. But their strength of schedule is only 23rd - also far below the teams around them. Heck, that's not too far off of RPI's SoS (25th) and it's below Brown's (20th).

Well, let's take a look-see.

Yale beat Vermont last night, 3-0. Just a few days after notching his first career shutout, Ryan Rondeau did it again. He hasn't allowed a goal in 135:23, dating back to Mike Bergin's goal in the third period on Friday night. That's pretty impressive, especially given that the first shutout was against #13 Union, a team that has proven itself capable offensively.

Yale's offense? Still best in the country. After failing to reach the five-goal mark against #15 RPI and last night against the Catamounts, they've slipped just below 5.00 GPG.

1. Yale - 4.92
2. Minnesota-Duluth - 3.94

They're no longer a full goal per game ahead of everyone else. No, now it's just 0.98 GPG. I don't care who you are or how easy your schedule is. You don't outscore the rest of the world by a goal per game unless you're extremely solid.

Remember when we said that Yale's defense was going to be something to overcome? How's a 2.08 GAA grab you? Third best in the nation now. They've given up two or fewer goals in five of six games since their ignoble loss to Air Force on November 14.

That, of course, leads to a pretty gaudy average scoring margin. There are only 11 teams in the nation averaging a margin of 1.00 GPG. But look at the Bulldogs:

1. Yale - 2.83
2. Boston College - 1.62
3. Miami - 1.56
4. Union - 1.43
5. Minnesota-Duluth - 1.38

Those numbers seem unreal. Are they partially a function of an easier schedule than the four teams directly beneath them? Yes, of course. When you play teams like Sacred Heart and play in the ECAC, strong teams are probably going to put up big numbers against those weaker teams. But we're not talking about numbers that are slightly better here. If we were, the BCs and UMDs of the world would have a better argument. But these numbers are out of this world.

If that's not enough for you, take a look at the computer rankings. Yes, much like college football, college hockey has a number of mathematical formulas that are used to rank the 58 Division I teams.

The most commonly used formula is KRACH - Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey. Developed by a statistician at the University of Toronto-Marlborough named Ken Butler, KRACH is widely considered to be the most objective system for rating college hockey teams. Yale is number one, as you can see at that link.

Not enough? Check out rpihockey.net's list of computer rankings. How about KASA, which adjusts KRACH for home-ice advantage? Yale's still number one. HEAL, developed at the University of Maine, takes into account how many games a team has won, and who they've beaten. Yale's number one. CCHP, developed by Eric Carlson at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, takes into account the actual score of each game as well as home-ice advantage using an additive model. Yale's number one. Then of course, you have the regular standbys - RPI (the Ratings Percentage Index) and the PairWise Rankings (of which RPI is a component). The PWR are still too early to be a true indicator, but if you like... Yale's number one in both of those as well.

They're not number one in every ranking, though. CHODR, a ranking system developed at St. Lawrence University, is similar to CCHP but it uses a multiplicative model instead. Yale's only 2nd in that ranking behind Boston College. E-ratings, a multi-system device devised by Russian statistician Eugene Potemkin, have them 2nd as well, behind Minnesota-Duluth.

There is a recursive version of HEAL (RHEAL) that pegs the Bulldogs 8th... but looking at pretty much every other scrap of data out there, it's pretty obvious that it's an outlier. If the only bits of raw data you can point to for making the claim that Yale isn't a deserving #1 is their RHEAL ranking and their strength of schedule, that's pretty thin.

Yale's record is 11-1-0. It would be 12-0-0 if not for a total collapse spanning 15 minutes of game time against Air Force - the Elis had a 3-0 lead about five minutes into the third period, and began taking penalties and falling out of their rhythm. If not for that 15 minute stretch, this probably isn't even a conversation.

But despite all of the evidence pointing to Yale as the best team in the nation at this point in time, the controversy is likely to continue, if only because the Bulldogs are not back in action until January 2nd, when they host another weak conference team, Holy Cross, for their final non-conference game. After that, it's all league games from there out. They're certainly going to be held to a higher standard than other teams - their losses will be magnified much more, just as the Air Force loss already has been.

But are they the best out there right now? You can't convince me they're not.

Cop Out

Watch this space in the coming weeks for some guest bloggers - we'll have some insight from around the college hockey world.

But in the meantime - a bit of a filler with no new material (I've been traveling, sue me), but hey! It's an interactive filler! Who says you don't get any input around here? Whoever that was, they were clearly lying through their teeth.