Monday, March 4, 2013

Men's Hockey - Clarkson/St. Lawrence (1/2 Mar)

The RPI Engineers are firing on all cylinders, and they picked a perfect time of year to be doing it. For the first time ever, they picked up a season sweep of both North Country teams by finishing off the season with four points against the duo, 5-0 against Clarkson on Friday and 4-1 against St. Lawrence on Saturday, an impressive showing from a team that was sitting in last place in the ECAC after the first week in January and now finds themselves with a week to recuperate before the playoffs begin, earning a first-round bye as the #2 seed in the league.

Clarkson
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

Besides the fact that the team has just one healthy player outside of the lineup it had fielded over the previous two weekends - Andrew Commers - it's generally a good idea to go with what has been working, and RPI went with the same lineup on both Friday and Saturday nights, running its streak to six consecutive games with identical lines and personnel.

After a scoreless first 15 minutes dominated by the Engineers despite power play opportunities from both teams, Milos Bubela broke the deadlock with his eighth goal of the season, one-timing a Brock Higgs pass that had been redirected by Mike Zalewski in front of the net for the 1-0 lead.

Zalewski, playing against his older brother's alma mater for the first time at home, would grab a second goal for the Engineers in the final minute of the first period, absolutely rifling a shot from the left faceoff dot that had eyes for the back of the net, giving RPI a 2-0 lead at the first intermission.

The freshman struck again just 1:31 into the second period, scoring a goal via the ancient method of "playing to the whistle." Clarkson netminder Greg Lewis stopped a shot by Higgs and tried to hold onto it, but Zalewski worked it free and quickly moved the puck around the frozen netminder into the open net, giving RPI a 3-0 lead and ending Lewis' night early for the second consecutive time against the Engineers.

The goaltending switch paid no dividends immediately for Clarkson. Guy Leboeuf made it 4-0 just over two minutes after Zalewski's second goal. After Mark Miller stole the puck while forechecking in the Clarkson zone, he zipped it up to the point for Leboeuf, whose slapper made its way through traffic and to the back of the net, the junior defenseman's first goal of the season.

The Engineers continued to pour it on. Through a pair of back-to-back power plays, RPI was unfortunate not to go up five or six goals. Zalewski hit the post in search of his hat trick goal. However, it wasn't until there were three minutes remaining in the second period that the Engineers made it 5-0 on a shot by Curtis Leonard that looked remarkably similar to Leboeuf's long-range strike. It came from almost the same place, just with a little taken off the shot, going in five-hole.

Meanwhile, it was a quiet night on the other end of the ice. Jason Kasdorf needed just 15 saves to pick up his third shutout of the season. Some said after the game that the 5-0 final was deceptively close - and 5-0 games aren't usually called close. The Engineers had a lackluster third period, but Clarkson almost never came close to scoring throughout the game. Kasdorf made one or two nice glove saves, but at the end of the night it was an easy two points for RPI.

Besides the Engineers' win, Union's victory over St. Lawrence and Dartmouth's tie against Princeton guaranteed that RPI would be the #2 seed even before Saturday night's game even started, which certainly took the pressure off for the final night of the season.

St. Lawrence
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

The big news out of Canton coming into the weekend was the absence of captain and Hobey Baker finalist Kyle Flanagan, due to an appendectomy on Tuesday. He centered one of the best lines in the country, and his absence certainly showed in a 5-1 loss to Union on Friday. No longer able to play for the #2 seed, the Saints were desperate for points against RPI in order to secure the first-round bye in order to ensure that Flanagan would be able to return for SLU's first playoff game.

The Engineers wasted no time in establishing their dominance on Saturday. A screened shot by Curtis Leonard was redirected in front by Mark McGowan to a streaking Nick Bailen, who popped the puck into the net for a 1-0 lead just 2:04 into the contest. SLU goaltender Matt Weninger protested that McGowan had interfered with him, but to no avail.

From there, St. Lawrence's desperation for points showed, and Jason Kasdorf had to be on his toes to keep the Engineers' edge. Similarly, Weninger stood very tall in net to keep his team in the game, as early domination by RPI gave way to a back and forth game for much of the first and second period. The RPI attack was hindered by a number of penalties in the first two periods as discipline started to become a major problem, but the absence of Flanagan on the power play for St. Lawrence kept its potency in check. The Saints failed to score on their first five power play opportunities, which came in about a 20 minute interval between the first and second periods.

St. Lawrence got on the board on a 4-on-3 situation, with Flanagan's co-Hobey candidate and linemate Greg Carey scoring the goal from the top of the slot to tie the game at 1-1, but a key mistake by Carey moments later would reverse momentum in a hurry.

With SLU still on the power play (now 5-on-4), Carey misplayed the puck at the point and tried to wrestle Bailen for it near the point. Higgs swooped in and scooped it up, bringing it the other way, going around a man, and cutting across the goalmouth to score his first goal of the season on the backhand. That shorthanded goal made the score 2-1 late in the second period.

St. Lawrence had more opportunities to come square once again as the RPI discipline problem carried over into the third period, but the Engineers' penalty kill continued to stay strong, eventually finishing the night 7-for-8.

RPI got their insurance goal with just over nine minutes left in the third period, as Mark Miller beat the defense back to the St. Lawrence zone to negate an icing call, then whipped the puck in front for Travis Fulton, who one-timed it to the back of the net for his second goal of the year to give RPI a 3-1 advantage.

Four minutes later, Johnny Rogic put the icing on the cake with his third goal of the season, a speedy streak up the right side boards following a steal in the neutral zone by Bailen. With plenty of room to operate, Rogic let one fly from the top of the faceoff circle, beating Weninger under his glove and caroming in off the post to make it 4-1. For the second consecutive night, the Engineers managed to chase the starting goaltender as Rogic's goal ended Weninger from the net.

Jason Kasdorf continued his hot streak at home, stopping 19 of 20 shots on Saturday to make it 34 of 35 on the weekend to run his home winning streak to eight in a row.

The loss, coupled with Union's victory over Clarkson, sent St. Lawrence tumbling from the top four, which means they'll have to host a first-round series next weekend in Canton.

Other junk - RPI has returned to the national rankings this week, now 17th in the nation according to the latest USCHO poll with 207 votes, just three behind #16 Nebraska-Omaha. Other ranked ECAC teams include #1 Quinnipiac (lost to Harvard and beat Dartmouth, no change with 36 first place votes), #13 Yale (swept Colgate/Cornell, up two), and #20 Union (swept SLU/Clarkson, previously unranked). Also receiving votes were Dartmouth (58) and St. Lawrence (2). Other teams on the RPI schedule ranked this week are #4 New Hampshire (up one), #8 St. Cloud State (down one), #10 Minnesota State (down one), and #19 Boston University (no change). No other opponents received points this week.

Nick Bailen had five points on the weekend, propelling him up the national scoring charts. At 0.94 points per game, he is now second in the nation in scoring among defensemen, just one point behind St. Lawrence's George Hughes (who picked up that point with an assist on SLU's only goal on Saturday). His 7 power play goals have him tied for 7th in the nation in that category, and tops among all defensemen.

Jason Kasdorf's 1.51 GAA has him fourth in the nation in that category (and, oddly, third among freshmen) and his .940 save percentage is sixth in the nation. Last week he was named national rookie of the month for February.

With a team GAA of 2.35, RPI is 11th in the nation in team defense.

RPI has not lost at home since December 1, a 3-1 loss to Quinnipiac. Since then, they have rattled off nine straight victories by a combined total of 35-8.

By virtue of finishing in second place (for the first time in 20 years), the Engineers have earned a bye through the first round of the ECAC playoffs and will not play in this coming weekend. Instead they await one of Brown, Princeton, Cornell, Clarkson, or Colgate in two weeks at Houston Field House - a rest that is certainly the spoils of victory.

Final ECAC Standings
1. Quinnipiac - 37 points (17-2-3)
2. RPI - 27 points (12-7-3)
3. Yale - 25 points (12-9-1)
4. Union - 24 points (10-8-4)
5. Dartmouth - 22 points (9-9-4)
6. St. Lawrence - 22 points (9-9-4)
7. Brown - 20 points (7-9-6)
8. Princeton - 20 points (8-10-4)
9. Cornell - 19 points (8-11-3)
10. Clarkson - 19 points (8-11-3)
11. Colgate - 15 points (6-13-3)
12. Harvard - 14 points (6-14-2)

ECAC First Round
#12 Harvard at #5 Dartmouth
#11 Colgate at #6 St. Lawrence
#10 Clarkson at #7 Brown
#9 Cornell at #8 Princeton

Clarkson at RPI
ECAC Game - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
3/1/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: RPI 5, Clarkson 0

BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO

RECORD: 16-12-5 (11-7-3 ECAC, 25 points)


St. Lawrence at RPI
ECAC Game - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
3/2/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: RPI 4, St. Lawrence 1

BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO


RECORD: 17-12-5 (12-7-3 ECAC, 27 points)

Upcoming games
15 Mar - ECAC Quarterfinals Game 1
16 Mar - ECAC Quarterfinals Game 2
17 Mar - ECAC Quarterfinals Game 3 (if necessary)
22 Mar - ECAC Semifinals (Atlantic City, NJ - if qualified)
23 Mar - ECAC Championship (Atlantic City, NJ - if qualified)

Women's Hockey - ECAC Quarterfinals (1/2 Mar)

RPI hit the road to the North Country this weekend with an ECAC playoff matchup against Clarkson awaiting them. Unfortunately for the Engineers, the Golden Knights sent them back to Troy with nothing to show for their trip as Clarkson earned a 2-0 series sweep, advancing to the semifinals next week.

While the Engineers stuck with Clarkson on Friday, eventually taking a 3-2 overtime loss, the Engineers couldn't keep up on Saturday and the Golden Knights jumped out to a 3-0 lead, eventually going on to win 5-2.

Game 1
Smelker/Horton/Mari Mankey
Sanders/Gruschow/Svoboda
Wash/Mahoney/Walsh
Letuligasenoa/Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Godin/Schilter
Banks/Marzario
Middlebrook

O'Brien

Taylor Horton's goal with four minutes left in regulation tied the game at two, but Carly Mercer scored at 8:51 of overtime to give the Clarkson Golden Knights a 3-2 victory over the Engineers Friday night at Cheel Arena.

While Clarkson nearly doubled up RPI in shots (41-23), Kelly O'Brien held the Engineers in the game but it wasn't enough to squeak out an upset win in the North Country.

Clarkson got on the board first, with Vanessa Gagnon left unmarked in the slot to beat O'Brien off a feed from Shelby Nisbet.

Alexa Gruschow tied it at one near the midpoint of the first, redirecting a pass from Jordan Smelker past Clarkson netminder Erica Howe on the power play.

That goal would mark the end of the scoring for more than a full period, as the teams traded 23 shots in the middle frame (13-10 Clarkson) and the Engineers killed two penalties but neither team would find the scoreboard until midway through the third.

Jamie Lee Rattray broke the tie at 11:05 of the third, breaking around Madison Marzario and scoring from her stomach after the RPI defenseman tripped her while trying to knock the puck away.

With time starting to run low, the Engineers picked up a power play at 14:02 and exactly as it expired, Horton scored to knot the score at two, herself falling to the ice in the process.

It remained tied at two after regulation and went to overtime where the Engineers killed a checking penalty but Clarkson continued to pressure and shortly after the kill Carly Mercer snuck one past O'Brien off an initial shot by Rattray to end the game 3-2 and take a 1-0 series lead.

Game 2
Smelker/Horton/Mari Mankey
Sanders/Gruschow/Svoboda
Wash/Mahoney/Walsh
Letuligasenoa/Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Godin/Schilter
Banks/Marzario
Middlebrook

O'Brien

Jamie Lee Rattray notched two goals, including one shorthanded, as Clarkson cruised to a 5-2 victory over RPI on Saturday in order to sweep the playoff series 2-0. The Golden Knights once again heavily outshot the Engineers, building up a 34-19 advantage over the course of the game.

The shot disparity was largest in the first period where Clarkson outshot RPI 14-5, but came out of the frame with a single goal by Shannon MacAulay to show for it.

Rattray scored back-to-back goals in the span of just under three minutes in the latter half of the second period to extend the lead to 3-0. Both goals were unassisted.

RPI got on the board in the third when Lauren Wash cut Clarkson's lead to 3-1 at 10:43 but the momentum was short-lived as Olivia Howe restored Clarkson's 3-goal lead just over three minutes later, making it 4-1.

With the season on the line and a three-goal deficit to overcome, RPI opted for the extra attacker fairly early but the move backfired and Vanessa Gagnon picked up an empty net goal at 17:36. Further time with the net empty led to Katie Daniels cutting it to 5-2 but Clarkson ran out the clock from there in order to wrap up their series victory.

The Engineers' season is now over while Clarkson joins Cornell, Harvard, and St. Lawrence in the ECAC semifinals, which (along with the finals) will take place next weekend at Lynah Rink in Ithaca.

St. Lawrence's series with Quinnipiac was the only one to go three games, with the Saints winning the first game in overtime and the Bobcats tying the series in a triple overtime thriller on Saturday. SLU jumped out to a 2-0 lead in game three and held on for the shutout and ticket to the semifinals.

With the Cornell men hosting a playoff series of their own next weekend, the women's games will be at somewhat odd times, with the semifinals at 1pm and 4pm Saturday with the final taking place 1pm on Sunday.

-----

RPI at Clarkson
ECAC Quarterfinals Game 1 – Cheel Arena (Potsdam, NY)
3/1/13 - 7pm
Clarkson 3, RPI 2 (OT) (Clarkson leads series 1-0)

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/03/01/rensselaer-vs-clarkson/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wclkren1.m01

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/3/1/WICE_0301131807.aspx
Clarkson: http://clarksonathletics.com/news/2013/3/1/WHOCK_0301130609.aspx?path=whock
Video Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k52brsh2jB4

RECORD: 10-21-4 (8-12-2 ECAC)

-----

RPI at Clarkson
ECAC Quarterfinals Game 2 – Cheel Arena (Potsdam, NY)
3/2/13 - 7pm
Clarkson 5, RPI 2 (Clarkson wins series 2-0)

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/03/02/rensselaer-vs-clarkson/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wclkren1.m02

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/3/2/WICE_0302134943.aspx
Clarkson: http://clarksonathletics.com/news/2013/3/2/WHOCK_0302131622.aspx?path=whock

RECORD: 10-22-4 (8-12-2 ECAC)

-----

ECAC Playoff Quarterfinal Results

#1 Cornell vs. #8 Colgate: Cornell wins 5-4 (OT), 3-2
#2 Clarkson vs. #7 RPI: Clarkson wins 3-2 (OT), 5-2
#3 Harvard vs. #6 Dartmouth: Harvard wins 3-0, 4-0
#4 Quinnipiac vs. #5 St. Lawrence: SLU wins 1-0 (OT), 2-3 (3OT), 2-0

-----

ECAC Semifinal Matchups (All games will take place next weekend at Lynah Rink as Cornell is the top seed)

#1 Cornell vs. #5 St. Lawrence
#2 Clarkson vs. #3 Harvard

Sunday, March 3, 2013

2013 Playoff Matchups

As usual, now that the playoff seeds are set in the ECAC, we can take a look at the first round matchups and potential second round matchups (which are primarily what RPI fans are concerned with). Further playoff coverage to come during the week, but we wanted to get this up quickly for everyone's use.


Dartmouth wins the tiebreaker with St. Lawrence for 5th on a superior record against the Top 4 of Quinnipiac, RPI, Yale, and Union.

Brown wins the tiebreaker with Princeton for 7th on a 4-0 season series win.

Cornell wins the tiebreaker with Clarkson for 9th on a superior record against the Top 4 (the difference, BTW, being Cornell's victory over RPI in Ithaca).

#12 Harvard at #5 Dartmouth - Big Green won the season series 3-1
* Dartmouth's first gig hosting in the first round since their 2009 series with RPI. They have not won a first-round series at home since 2007.
* Harvard's first time ever finishing in last place in the ECAC. They won their last first-round series on the road, at Clarkson in 2011. They then lost at Dartmouth in 3 games in the quarterfinals. The Crimson had a first-round bye last year.

#11 Colgate at #6 St. Lawrence - Saints won the season series 3-1
* St. Lawrence's second straight season hosting a first round series. They were swept last year by Dartmouth. Their last home playoff series win was in 2010 over Clarkson.
* Colgate's third bottom-four finish in five years. Their last was in 2011, when they upset RPI in the first round as the #12 seed. Each of their last four road playoff series have gone three games.

#10 Clarkson at #7 Brown - Bears won the season series 3-1
* Brown's first home playoff series since 2005, a two-game sweep of RPI.
* Clarkson's first road playoff series since 2010. They have not won a playoff series anywhere since 2007.

#9 Cornell at #8 Princeton - Tigers won the season series 4-0
* Princeton's third first round series at home in four years. They have lost four consecutive playoff series.
* Cornell's first road playoff series and first round series since 2008, and the first time they will not have any home playoff games since 1999.

The byes:
#1 Quinnipiac
Their first ever first-round bye. They have never lost a home playoff series in the ECAC, and have advanced past their opening playoff round in every year they've been in the league.

#2 RPI
First time with the first-round bye since 1997, under a different playoff format (the bye did not exist from 1998 to 2002). They have not won a home playoff series since 2004.

#3 Yale
Fourth first-round bye in five years. They have lost only one home playoff series since Keith Allain became head coach, falling to Brown in three games in 2010.

#4 Union
Fourth consecutive first-round bye, and fifth in six years.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Where We Stand (2 Mar)

There is one game remaining in the regular season.

RPI (11-7-3) has clinched the #2 seed in the ECAC playoffs and will have a first-round bye. They can still be caught for 2nd place by Yale if the Engineers lose to SLU and the Bulldogs beat Cornell, but RPI would win the tiebreaker with Yale on season series (4-0).

Quinnipiac (16-2-3) is the #1 seed. They will host one of Clarkson, Cornell, Brown, Princeton, Colgate, or Harvard in the ECAC quarterfinals - the same is true of RPI.

Yale (11-9-1) is alone in 3rd. They have clinched a home ice playoff series. They can clinch the #3 seed and a first-round bye with a win over Cornell.

Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, and Union (all 9-8-4) are tied for 4th. They have all clinched a home ice playoff series. The Big Green currently hold the 4th seed on a head-to-head win over the Saints and the Dutchmen. Union holds the 5th seed on better record against the Top 4.

--

Yale, Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, and Union will take the positions between 3rd and 6th. None of them play each other on Saturday. Two of these teams will have a first-round bye, the other two will host Colgate and Harvard next week.

Yale wins individual tiebreakers with St. Lawrence (4-0 season series) and Dartmouth (ECAC wins).
Union wins the individual tiebreaker with Yale (3-1 season series).
Dartmouth wins the individual tiebreaker with Union (3-1 season series).
St. Lawrence's individual tiebreakers with Dartmouth and Union depend on who finishes in the Top 4.

Yale wins a three-way tiebreaker with St. Lawrence/Dartmouth (head-to-head) and with St. Lawrence/Union (head-to-head).
Dartmouth wins a three-way tiebreaker with Yale/Union (head-to-head) and with St. Lawrence/Union (head-to-head).

Yale wins the four-way tiebreaker.

--

Clarkson and Cornell (both 8-10-3) are tied for 7th. The Big Red hold the 7th seed on a superior record against the Top 4. Either would clinch a home-ice series with a win on Saturday.

Brown (6-9-6) and Princeton (7-10-4) are tied for 9th. The Bears hold the 9th seed on a season series win over the Tigers (4-0).

--

Clarkson, Cornell, Brown, and Princeton will take the positions between 7th and 10th. None of them play each other on Saturday. Two of these teams will host the other two in the first round of the ECAC playoffs next week.

Clarkson wins the individual tiebreaker with Princeton (4-0 season series).
Brown wins individual tiebreakers with Clarkson (3-1 season series) and Princeton (4-0 season series).
Cornell wins the individual tiebreaker with Brown (ECAC wins).
Princeton wins the individual tiebreaker with Cornell (4-0 season series).
The Cornell-Clarkson tiebreaker is totally up in the air, depending on who finishes in the Top 4 OR the Top 8.

Brown win all of their three-way tiebreakers on head-to-head, as well as the four-way tie-breaker.

Clarkson wins the three-way tiebreaker with Cornell/Princeton on head-to-head.

--

Colgate (6-12-3) is alone in 11th. They will either finish in 11th or 12th. They can clinch 11th with a win over Brown.

Harvard (6-13-2) is in 12th. They can only reach as high as 11th. They can clinch that position with a win and a Colgate loss or tie.

The Colgate-Harvard tiebreaker is unknown. If Harvard beats Princeton and Colgate ties Brown, Harvard would win on ECAC wins. If Harvard ties Princeton and Colgate loses to Brown, the tiebreaker would depend on who finishes in the Top 4.

These teams will travel to face one of Yale, Dartmouth, Union, or St. Lawrence next weekend.

Friday, March 1, 2013

In Control

When you control your own destiny, you're sitting in a good spot.

It's a liberating feeling to be playing with no expectations. The weight of the world isn't on your shoulders, it's over there on the other side. Sure, it won't be easy for the women to go to Potsdam and win one game, let alone two in order to keep their season alive, but it's exactly when you aren't expected to do anything that you can create unforgettable memories. So while the whole world seems to expect the young RPI squad to end its season this weekend against a Clarkson team almost certainly bound for the NCAA tournament... why not go for it?

Meanwhile, the men just have to win - no looking at anyone else. Win this weekend, and 2nd place is theirs for the first time in 20 years. Score two points at least, and the first round bye is theirs, technically for the first time since 1997 (the bye didn't exist from 1998 to 2002), but realistically for the first time under the current playoff structure. It's an exciting time.

Now it's time to go out and take the opportunity they've earned.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Where We Stand (27 Feb)

Women
It turns out that last night's game between Yale and Harvard had absolutely no impact on the final standings. All Harvard's win did was force Clarkson's tiebreaking win over Harvard to come into effect.

The quarterfinal series match-ups are as follows:
#8 Colgate at #1 Cornell
#7 RPI at #2 Clarkson
#6 Dartmouth at #3 Harvard
#5 St. Lawrence at #4 Quinnipiac

Princeton (6-14-2) had their chance at the #8 seed. They were leading Yale 2-1 heading into the third period, but the Bulldogs rallied, scoring three goals and keeping the Tigers out of the playoffs. This is the first time that Princeton missed the playoffs since 2001.

Yale (4-14-3) finished in 10th place, missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year.

Brown (5-17-0) misses the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years and finished in 11th. In 2006, the year before the beginning of that streak, the Bears played in the ECAC championship game, and in 2002 lost to Minnesota-Duluth 3-2 in the national championship game.

Union (0-18-4) finishes in last place for the 9th time in 10 seasons in the ECAC, failing to register an ECAC win for the 6th time (but the first since 2009).


Men
RPI (10-7-3) is currently in 2nd place by themselves. They clinch at least 4th place and a bye with a win over Clarkson. A tie means that they can't finish below fifth, but they would not be guaranteed a Top 4 finish. They can clinch 2nd place on Friday with a win, a SLU loss against Union, and a Dartmouth loss or tie against Princeton. They will finish somewhere between 2nd and 6th when all is said and done, and they control their own destiny for 2nd. A first-round bye would be the first for RPI under the current playoff structure.

RPI cannot catch Quinnipiac, and cannot be caught by Brown, Princeton, Cornell, Colgate, or Harvard. Every other team in the league can be potentially added to that list on Friday.
* If they don't lose on Friday, Clarkson gets added to the list.
* If they pick up as many points (or more) than Union does against SLU, the Dutchmen get thrown onto the list.
* They need to earn more points than Dartmouth or Yale to put the Big Green or the Bulldogs on the list.
* To put St. Lawrence out of range, it would take an RPI win and a SLU loss to Union.

Rooting interests for Friday night:
* Princeton over Dartmouth: There's no reason not to cheer for the Tigers.
* Union over St. Lawrence: If RPI beats Clarkson, then Union can't catch the Engineers. A Dutchmen win makes it so the Saints can't either. If RPI doesn't beat Clarkson, then it would be better to let St. Lawrence also win, since RPI controls their destiny against the Saints and it would leave Union out of range.
* Yale ties Colgate: RPI swept Yale, so there's nothing wrong with Yale creeping closer and it gives the Bulldogs a better chance of finishing in the Top 4, which could be critical when it comes down to tiebreakers, but if RPI loses to Clarkson, then we don't want the Engineers to be tied with the Bulldogs. Any result in this game is a good result.

The Quinnipiac-Harvard and Cornell-Brown games are irrelevant for RPI's placement, none of those teams can catch RPI or be caught by RPI. It would be better for Brown to finish in the Top 8 than Cornell, but if we're getting to that point in the tiebreakers, we've already run into some issues.

Tiebreakers for Friday night
SLU: Wins on season series (2-0)
Yale: Wins on season series (4-0)
Dartmouth: Unclear, goes to third tiebreaker (Record vs. Top 4) - Won by RPI unless Union is in the Top 4.
SLU/Dartmouth: RPI, Dartmouth, SLU
SLU/Yale: RPI, Yale, SLU
Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth
SLU/Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth, SLU


Individual tiebreakers for Saturday night
*St. Lawrence
RPI would likely win a direct tiebreaker with St. Lawrence when all is said and done. There are only three scenarios in which the teams end the season tied with each other.
1) RPI beats Clarkson on Friday, SLU ties Union on Friday, SLU beats RPI on Saturday. The Engineers would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins.
2) RPI ties Clarkson on Friday, SLU beats Union on Friday, SLU and RPI tie on Saturday. The Engineers would win the tiebreaker on a 3-1 season series win.
3) RPI ties Clarkson on Friday, SLU loses to Union on Friday, SLU beats RPI on Saturday. This would go to the record against the Top 4 teams.
* Quinnipiac is the only guaranteed Top 2 team - SLU had 2 points against them, RPI 1.
* Dartmouth - SLU 2, RPI 2
* Yale - RPI 4, SLU 0
* Union - SLU 2, RPI 0
* Clarkson - RPI 3, SLU 1
Union and Clarkson can't both get the bye, since they play each other, and in this scenario, RPI and SLU both would be in the top four themselves, or at least tied for fourth (in which case, Yale and Dartmouth are both top 4, winning RPI the tiebreaker). Thus, RPI would still win this tiebreaker as long as Yale or Clarkson is the 4th team, not Dartmouth or Union.

* Yale
Won by RPI on season series, 4-0

* Dartmouth
This almost certainly would go to the third tiebreaker (Record vs. Top 4). The only way it doesn't is if RPI is swept on the weekend and Dartmouth ties both Princeton and Quinnipiac, in which case RPI would win the tiebreaker on the second tiebreaker (ECAC wins) or RPI ties both Clarkson and St. Lawrence while Dartmouth sweeps Princeton and Quinnipiac on the weekend.
* Quinnipiac - RPI has one point, Dartmouth has none but plays Quinnipiac on Saturday.
* St. Lawrence - Dartmouth has two points, RPI also has two but plays St. Lawrence on Saturday.
* Yale - RPI 4, Dartmouth 2
* Union - Dartmouth 3, RPI 0
* Clarkson - Dartmouth has two points, RPI also has two but plays Clarkson on Friday.

If Yale is a Top 4 team and Union is not, then RPI wins the tiebreaker. If Union is a Top 4 team and Yale is not, then Dartmouth wins the tiebreaker. Otherwise, there's still quite a bit of flux in this tiebreaker.

* Union
Won by Union on season series, 4-0

* Clarkson
Only comes into effect with a Clarkson win on Friday, then a Clarkson win and RPI loss on Saturday. That causes a series split between the teams, and causes identical ECAC records. This goes to the Top 4.
* Quinnipiac - RPI 1, Clarkson 0
* St. Lawrence - Clarkson 3, RPI 2
Thus, if RPI and Clarkson tie for 3rd, it would go to the fourth tiebreaker, record against Top 8 teams.
* Yale - RPI 4, Clarkson 2
* Dartmouth - RPI 2, Clarkson 2
* Union - Clarkson 4, RPI 0
* Brown - RPI 3, Clarkson 1
* Cornell - RPI 2, Clarkson 2
* Princeton - Clarkson 4, RPI 1
* Colgate - RPI 4, Clarkson 1
RPI would win the Top 8 tiebreaker as long as Princeton or Union finished 9th. Colgate cannot finish above 9th unless Union does as well, and would require Brown to finish below 9th. That makes even this a solid bet to go to the fifth tiebreaker, goal differential in head-to-head competition. If that happens, RPI will win the tiebreaker provided that their loss on Friday is by three or fewer goals. More than four, Clarkson wins. If it is by four goals exactly, the sixth tiebreaker goes into effect, goal differential in games against Top 4 teams.
* Quinnipiac - RPI -2, Clarkson -4
* St. Lawrence - Clarkson +3, RPI 0 or worse
If RPI and Clarkson are tied for 3rd, Clarkson would win on the sixth tiebreaker if it got that far - and it would be, at the end of the day, because of an empty net goal scored by Quinnipiac.

Multiple level tiebreakers for Saturday night to come following Friday night's games.

Notes:
* RPI will finish behind Quinnipiac for the second consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Brown for the eighth consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Princeton for the second consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Harvard and Colgate for the first time since 2011.
* RPI will finish ahead of Cornell for the first time since 2000.

Remainder of the league:
Quinnipiac (16-1-3) will finish first and host the lowest remaining seed in the ECAC quarterfinals in three weeks. It is their first ever Top 4 finish in the ECAC.

St. Lawrence (9-7-4) and Yale (10-9-1) have clinched at least home ice in the first round, sitting 3rd and 4th respectively. St. Lawrence controls its own destiny for 2nd, the Saints' last bye was in 2009. Yale controls its own destiny for a bye position.

Yale is tied for 4th with Dartmouth (9-8-3) but sits in 4th because of their advantage in ECAC wins. Dartmouth could still finish with the bye or could still end up on the road in the first round. A first round bye would be the fourth in five years for Yale. For Dartmouth, it would be the second consecutive two-year cycle where Dartmouth goes from being on the road in the first round in one year to having a bye in the next. They were on the road in 2010, had a bye in 2011, and were on the road in 2012.

Union (8-8-4), Clarkson (8-9-3), and Brown (6-8-6) are alone in 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively. Each controls their own destiny for home-ice, could reach the Top 4, but could also be on the road in the first round instead. Union has had four byes in the last five years. Clarkson has not had a first-round bye since being the #1 seed in 2008. Brown has not had a home playoff game since 2005.

Princeton (7-10-3) and Cornell (7-10-3) are tied for 9th, with Princeton winning the tiebreaker due to a season sweep against the Big Red. Cornell could potentially reach a tie for fourth that they could win, while Princeton is guaranteed to be playing in the first round. The Big Red have never been lower than a 5 seed in the current playoff format, and have not failed to host a playoff series since 1999. Princeton will play in the first round for the fourth straight year.

Colgate (6-11-3) will be playing in the first round, and could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th. They are in danger of falling into the same cycle as Dartmouth - they had a bye in 2010, were on the road in 2011, and had a bye in 2012.

Harvard (5-14-2) will finish either 11th or 12th and will be on the road in the first round. Failing to earn more points (vs. Quinnipiac) on Friday than Colgate (at Yale) would lock the Crimson into last place for the first time in program history.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Engineer Bracketology: Week 2

If you're going to win one game in a weekend, do it against a TUC - that's the lesson of the PairWise. The other lesson this week - other games definitely play a role as to whether you're in the tournament or not. This week, the Engineers are in the tournament thanks more to Brown's 3-point weekend than their own 2-point showing.

1. Quinnipiac*
2. Minnesota
3. Miami*
4. Boston College*
5. New Hampshire
6. North Dakota
7. Minnesota State
8. Niagara*
9. Western Michigan
10. St. Cloud State*
11. UMass-Lowell
12. Denver
13. Dartmouth
14. Notre Dame
15. Yale
16. Rensselaer
17. St. Lawrence
18. Robert Morris
19. Alaska
20. Union
21. Nebraska-Omaha
22. Merrimack
23. Boston University
24. Ferris State
25. Ohio State
26. Providence
27. Northern Michigan
28. Wisconsin
29. Colgate
30. Colorado College
31. Holy Cross
32. Brown

In: Dartmouth, Rensselaer
Out: Boston University, Merrimack

TUCs
In: Brown
Out: none

Well, there it is. For the first time this season, the Engineers are in the tournament field, even if it's just barely and it's contingent upon having ZERO upsets in the conference tournaments. Here's what the bracket would probably look like:

Providence
1. Quinnipiac
2. Niagara
3. St. Cloud State
4. Notre Dame

Grand Rapids
1. Minnesota
2. Minnesota State
3. Western Michigan
4. Rensselaer

Toledo
1. Miami
2. North Dakota
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Yale

Manchester
1. Boston College
2. New Hampshire
3. Denver
4. Dartmouth

If the season ended today, the Engineers are almost certainly playing Minnesota - there's not much of a reason for them to be playing anyone else. So, once again, there's making the tournament, then there's getting a favorable draw, and this certainly isn't one.

The problem? Well... there's not much space for upward mobility right now for Rensselaer. That's a big issue, one that doesn't leave much room for error.

Here's another problem - the TUC cliff.

25. Boston University (.5099)
26. Alaska (.5063)
27. Ohio State (.5040)
28. Colgate (.5033)
29. Colorado College (.5025)
30. Holy Cross (.5017)
31. Northern Michigan (.5014)
32. Brown (.5005)
--
33. Cornell (.4995)
34. Air Force (.4969)
35. UConn (.4960)
36. Bowling Green (.4936)

The Engineers' current record against TUCs is 9-9-4. That's a .500 record, which has really helped propel them into the tournament field. The problem is, they are 3-0-1 against Colgate and Brown, and both of those teams are hanging right there on the cliff. If they fall out, the Engineers will tumble down the PWR in a hurry.

Cornell hanging out on the outside of the TUC cliff is intriguing, but as of now they're of no help to the Engineers. Because they went 1-1-0 against the Big Red this season, adding them to a TUC record that's already at .500 will have zero impact. However, it's good to have them there as a backup if Brown or Colgate falls out. Then there's BU at the top of the TUC cliff. They're not in major danger yet of falling out, but they've entered the cliff zone. It would be nice to get rid of that TUC loss.

Anyway, as part of the limited upward mobility for the Engineers, there are only four comparisons out there that they currently lose that would have a shot at being flipped in the near future:
Nebraska-Omaha - As mentioned last week, this is another one of those comparisons that hinges exclusively on RPI (Union, Wisconsin, Providence, and Niagara are the other major cases), and it's getting closer despite the fact that UNO didn't play last weekend. Need UNO losses and Rensselaer wins.

Yale - The two H2H wins are the only points the Engineers have right now, but this is razor thin due to a COp tie at the present. Yale has tiny leads in RPI and TUC. That makes a Colgate win over Yale huge for Rensselaer - it would drop Yale's RPI, TUC record, and COp record all at once, not to mention shoring up the Raiders' position as a TUC. If Colorado College were to fall off the TUC cliff, Yale would lose a TUC win there too, so we can toss that onto our to-do list, and Holy Cross being a TUC gives them an extra TUC loss.

Dartmouth - The Big Green lead 3-2 on RPI, TUC, and H2H, while the Engineers have COp and H2H. Pretty simple here, we're rooting against Dartmouth, especially against Quinnipiac. The tricky part comes in with Dartmouth's 3-0-0 record against Brown, which means Brown as a TUC actually helps the Big Green more than it does Rensselaer. For this comparison and this comparison only, we would want Brown out as a TUC, but the problem is that the Bears help the Engineers win other comparisons (see below). However, Cornell could help out as well if they became a TUC, as DC was 0-1-1 against the Big Red.

Western Michigan - I threw this in not because of anything either team can do to impact this comparison this week, but because the TUC cliff could benefit the Engineers here. WMU is 2-0-0 against Northern Michigan this season, which helps bolster their TUC record for a 2-1 comparison win right now. Dumping NMU as a TUC would help make this closer in TUC, and the Engineers are already winning COp. Not likely to flip this week, but it could be made very, very close.

Here are the ones they flipped in the last week:
Union - All about RPI, and the Engineers moved ahead of the Dutchmen in RPI over the weekend, but it's close enough to be keeping an eye on. Still rooting for Union to lose - although their game against SLU on Friday is problematic. More on that in a minute.

Merrimack - TUC was flipped thanks to Brown's TUC accession and Merrimack's loss to Boston College on Sunday. RPI flipped as well to give the Engineers a 2-1 comparison lead. The RPI lead is slight enough that we still need to root against the Warriors, however.

Northern Michigan - This flipped entirely because of Brown's move into the TUC ranks - it had nothing to do with how Rensselaer played over the weekend whatsoever. That gives the Engineers a 2-1 comparison lead, but the TUC edge is razor thin. Fortunately, NMU is even closer to the TUC cliff than they were last weekend. If they fall out, there's no need to worry about their comparison, and that's probably the easiest route.

Finally, the comparisons Rensselaer presently wins, but could lose in the short-term:
Notre Dame - All on TUC and COp. COp can't be lost, but TUC is close. We need Colgate and Brown to stay up, we need Alaska and Ohio State to stay up (ND was 0-3-1 against the Nanooks and Buckeyes) and NMU falling out would help here as well (ND was 2-0-0 against them). RPI beating St. Lawrence is important, too, since SLU is a TUC.

St. Lawrence - Speak of the devil. The Engineers could make this rather solid with a win over the Saints on Saturday, which would give them two H2H wins. It's 2-2 right now and a Rensselaer win on RPI and H2H, but TUC and COp are close enough to get pushed. Thus, we may need to hope Union knocks them off on Friday to shore up TUC and COp, and if the Engineers add another H2H win on Saturday, that would make things pretty solid.

Robert Morris - This isn't really that close, but Holy Cross as a TUC gives RMU 10 games against TUCs, which kicks that part of their comparisons into consideration. Otherwise, it's a 2-0 Rensselaer advantage, though RPI is close. Just something to keep an eye on for the time being, and engage in some preventative rooting against the Colonials.

Providence - The Friars are solid on COp, the Engineers solid on TUC. This hinges on RPI, and the 'Tute is just barely ahead of PC there. Definitely need to root against Providence.

Wisconsin - The Badgers' loss to Penn State last night had some seriously bad repercussions for UW. They tumbled in RPI and subsequently the PWR. This one is also on RPI, and while it's not as close as Providence, it's close enough that we need to keep rooting against Bucky - problem is, they play UNO this week.

Further adding to the Engineers' problems, there's a great deal of flux going on just below the tournament field. Losses by Merrimack and Wisconsin in the last week sucked them way down the chart. Rensselaer's loss to Cornell actually put them down in 23rd for the night. It's simply going to be difficult for any of these teams to lose games going forward and still have a decent shot at an at-large bid.

They have to keep winning games, especially Saturday's game since it's the last one they're guaranteed to have against a TUC.

With all of that in mind, this week's Engineer Cheering Section. Notable games include tonight's BU-Merrimack game (we prefer Merrimack losing to BU despite the TUC loss to the Terriers in order to shore up the Merrimack comparison), Friday's Brown-Cornell game (we need Brown more than we need Cornell) and SLU-Union (Union can help us shore up the SLU comparison as long as the Engineers win too in order to mitigate negative impacts on the Union comparison). In the WCHA, we look at the UW-UNO series (take Bucky this week, then hope they lose next week to St. Cloud) and we are watching BU-UVM (now is the time to root against the Terriers to drop them as a TUC).

Tonight
Boston University over Merrimack
Boston College over UMass-Lowell

Friday
Holy Cross over Army
Sacred Heart over UConn
Air Force over Niagara
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris
Michigan State over Western Michigan
Bowling Green over Notre Dame
Ferris State over Michigan
Lake Superior State over Northern Michigan
Ohio State over Miami
Alaska over Alaska-Anchorage
Colgate over Yale
Rensselaer over Clarkson
Brown over Cornell
Princeton over Dartmouth
Quinnipiac over Harvard
Union over St. Lawrence
Boston College over Providence
UMass-Lowell over Merrimack
New Hampshire over UMass
Vermont over Boston University
Wisconsin over Nebraska-Omaha
Alabama-Huntsville over Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota over Denver
Minnesota State over Colorado College
St. Cloud State over Michigan Tech
Bemidji State over North Dakota

Saturday
Sacred Heart over UConn
Holy Cross over Army
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris
Air Force over Niagara
Michigan State over Western Michigan
Bowling Green over Notre Dame
Ferris State over Michigan
Lake Superior State over Northern Michigan
Ohio State over Miami
Alaska over Alaska-Anchorage
Colgate ties Brown
Clarkson over Union
Cornell over Yale
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Rensselaer over St. Lawrence
Boston College over Providence
New Hampshire over UMass
Vermont over Boston University
Wisconsin over Nebraska-Omaha
Alabama-Huntsville over Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota over Denver
Minnesota State over Colorado College
St. Cloud State over Michigan Tech
Bemidji State over North Dakota

Sunday
UMass-Lowell over Merrimack