New World Order

We are in the final season of the fourth iteration of the conference system in college hockey. Next year, things are going to look mighty different.

Fourth, you ask? What were the other three? Well, here they are, roughly.

1961 - 1981: The ECAC and the WCHA rule the roost, though the latter is generally stronger. Every national championship during this time period was won by a team from one of these conferences, through to 1983. The CCHA begins as a relatively minor conference midway through this period.

1981 - 1985: Still largely a period of dominance between the ECAC and the WCHA, but the CCHA's addition of Michigan and Michigan State shifts the balance a bit away from the WCHA.

1985 - 2000: The Hockey East split leads to a shift of power between the new conference, the WCHA, and the CCHA, with the ECAC in slow decline, especially after the early 1990s.

2000 - 2013: The era of the "Big Three," as the ECAC moves out of a position of power to become the lone mid-major, while the MAAC/AHA comes to being as the lone minor conference.

2013 - ???: The Big Ten tsunami rearranges the college hockey landscape as never before.

What could we be looking at in this fifth iteration of conference paradigm in college hockey?

Well, now that every team has lost a game this season, let's look at the current KRACH ratings to see where the new conference structure would stand if it were theoretically in place today - not a perfect comparison, since conference schedules will shift, but this is what it looks like.

Hockey East - 1, 2, 6, 7, 14, 19, 26, 34, 43, 44, 45, 52
NCHC - 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 18, 20, 39
ECAC - 4, 5, 8, 13, 16, 17, 21, 23, 31, 32, 33, 46
Big Ten - 12, 27, 37, 42, 49, 54
WCHA - 24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 38, 50
Atlantic Hockey - 22, 40, 41, 47, 48, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 59
Independents - 58

Look at the NCHC - that's a holy cow stat right there. Seven of its eight teams are currently among the 20 best in the nation, and the eighth (Minnesota-Duluth) won a national championship two years ago. Think that might be a power conference?

The Big Ten is having a shockingly bad season in it's year before birth (to wit - independent Penn State is ranked ahead of 1-7-2 Wisconsin, and Michigan ain't that far ahead of them), but this season is likely the exception and not the rule, considering that four of the six teams in the conference are regulars in the national tournament under the current structure.

Also, no one can deny Hockey East's excellent standing, especially with Notre Dame about to join the fold. Three of its usual "Big Four" are off to a great start (Maine... not so much), although the biggest problem Hockey East faces is its gap between haves and have nots. Providence's decent start has them somewhere in the middle (26th), but besides the Friars there's a big gap between UMass-Lowell (19th) and Merrimack (34th). Still, in recent seasons we've seen the Warriors competitive and the River Hawks not so competitive. They'll be a strong conference.

Atlantic Hockey, with all but two of its teams outside the top 2/3 of the nation, will continue their current role of providing their tournament winner an automatic bid and nothing more. They are still a cost-containment league and until that changes, they are where they are.

That leaves the fate of the original two up for ponderance... the ECAC and the WCHA.

First, the ECAC. The only changes our league needs to worry about is how the shifting paradigms affect recruiting. The last shift certainly affected things for the worse, but with five teams offering a full complement of scholarships and the league as a whole attractive for the educational side, there's only so far the ECAC will slide. It's probably already reached the bottom, really.

But the new WCHA could be in an almost worse situation than the ECAC, and quickly. A mashup of the leftovers between the CCHA and current WCHA after the Big Ten and NCHC tore away basically all of their top programs, it's hard to peg an absolute best program from this new group of nine. By KRACH, right now, it's Alaska followed by Ferris State. You'd almost have to call the Bulldogs early favorites.

The currently comprised ECAC has won only five national championships, among only three of its members, and none since 1989 (Harvard). The new WCHA will have eight, among four members, but none since 1994 (Lake Superior State). That's not overly dissimilar.

There's one other way to look at which conference has the most power teams - NCAA bids. The conferences have averaged the following total bids per season in the last 10 years (since the tournament was expanded).

WCHA - 4.4 mean, 4/5 median, 5 mode (High 6 - 2008; Low 3 - 2007 and 2009)
CCHA - 3.9 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2004 and 2012, Low 3 - 2003)
Hockey East - 3.6 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 5 - 2007; Low 2 - 2008)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)

Now apply the total bids per season to the new conferences.

NCHC - 4.2 mean, 4 median, 4 mode (High 7 - 2011; Low 3 - 2003 and 2005)
Hockey East - 4.1 mean (High 6 - 2007; Low 3 - 2008 and 2010)
Big Ten - 3.1 mean, 3 median, 3/4 mode (High 5 - 2004; Low 1 - 2011)
ECAC - 2.2 mean, 2 median, 2 mode (High 3 - 2005, 2009, 2011; Low 1 - 2004)
WCHA - 0.9 mean, 1 median, 0/1 mode (High 3 - 2010; Low 0 - 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011)

That's astounding to see. In the new WCHA, there were four different years in the last ten that none of the teams made the tournament. In fact, between 2004 and 2009 (six consecutive years), there wasn't a single team that will play in the WCHA next year that earned an at-large bid - Bemidji State, on three occasions in that span, won the CHA's automatic bid.

What does that mean? Well, for starters, it means the WCHA is dropping off a long ways prestige-wise. But a cursory look at the numbers tells us that, at least at first, hockey's new world order is still going to consist of the "Big Three," but two of those will be brand new conferences. The ECAC will still be a mid-major, in all likelihood.

The WCHA, however, looks like it's going to have to fight - and hard - to be mid-major level. It essentially ended up as the Island of Misfit Toys after realignment, and although its autobid now represents a big chance for teams that frequently don't get to compete for either the WCHA or CCHA autobid most years in the past, the new league may be hard-pressed to pick up an at-large bid even with the regularity of the ECAC, which almost always gets one and not unfrequently snags a second.

The NCHC, once it gets assembled, will almost certainly never get 7 bids as it did in 2011 (that would be almost the entire league, and someone has to finish in last), but the mean totals could average out about right. That would likely mean, more often than not, the WCHA will probably have to settle for its autobid, but at least they'll probably grab an extra bid every once in a while, which pegs them above Atlantic Hockey. But it looks like a quick drop from the top for college hockey's oldest conference, almost certainly quicker than the ECAC's fall from grace. Their motto is "just got tougher," put in place after Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha joined the fold. They can keep it next year, but it'll have a different meaning.

Disgrace

Dr. Malcolm "Mack" Portera doesn't know jack about college hockey.

Unfortunately, that's the ultimate reason why February will see the University of Alabama at Huntsville fade from the college hockey map - and why Portera, the University of Alabama chancellor who has assumed the temporary role of UAH president, has joined former Union president Roger Hull at the top of the list of the sport's biggest administrative fools.

Monday was a very sad day in the history of college hockey. It marked an avoidable sunset for a program that simultaneously embodied the spirit of a sport in which Division II and III schools regularly tangle - and often win - against schools whose mascots are household names, and the spirit of the sport's unique and passionate niche support.

While it is true that the college hockey family as a whole is partially to blame for leaving a cherished family member out in the cold - ironically, in the sport's warmest locale - it is beyond belief that the ultimate blame would fall with an individual within the school itself, even as the Chargers' most passionate fans did everything in their power to make the team's survival a feasible option.

There are things that could have happened to keep this day from happening. The CCHA could have chosen to bring the Chargers on board two years ago when they applied. Poetic justice, perhaps, that the league will be the next entity on its way out come 2013. If they'd been accepted, UAH would have likely begun league play this season at the latest, and could well have had a better position to collectively bargain with the other CCHA teams who, like the Chargers, were suddenly scrambling for a new home.

The WCHA, it is told, could have been a likely home following all of the moving pieces this summer even despite the league's inclusion of both Alaska schools. But then, Mack Portera came into the picture and started waving his axe, which understandably made the WCHA wary - creating Portera's self-fulfilling prophecy that the team wasn't going to find a home.

Portera's excuses are easily shot down - and he has so obviously ignored any attempts to help keep the program afloat until better arrangements can be found.

First, he takes the easy road in this difficult economy: he claims poverty, something the average citizen is supposed to be able to understand right now. Unfortunately for him, it doesn't hold much water considering that a grassroots alumni and local effort raised enough pledges to offset the school's losses for three years.

A lot can happen in three years. Heck, just two years ago, UAH was in the NCAA tournament, playing a tight game with Miami that helped goaltender Cameron Talbot earn an NHL contract. Given three years, we could see an economic turnaround that would help the school continue to support its program, and the Chargers could eventually find accommodations in a conference with an opening, of which there are now three and potentially four. If things are still bad then, perhaps the program would still have to close. But now, we'll never know.

Second, he makes the claim that Charger hockey will continue to be a defining element of the school, since it will continue to operate at the club level. Right. That's why Penn State is still playing club hockey come next season, or why Lindenwood is still playing women's club hockey. Oh, wait.

Ask any hockey fan in Glens Falls what it was like going from watching AHL hockey for 20 years with the Adirondack Red Wings to watching low-level UHL hockey with the Adirondack Icehawks/Frostbite. Needless to say, attendance, and interest, wasn't quite the same. People aren't stupid. They know the difference in quality.

Third, Portera says the hockey program's budget is much bigger than that of the rest of the athletic department. That's true at RPI, too. Some program has to be the biggest. Why wouldn't it be the most important sport at the school? Hockey allows UAH to stand out from its big brother in Tuscaloosa AND its arguable little brother at UAB, both of which play big time FBS football. As UA system chancellor, Portera probably could have saved the system more money by making minor cuts there, but of course, he couldn't.

Fourth, he points out closures at Wayne State and Findlay, which is like comparing apples to oranges when it comes to the history and tradition of hockey at those schools. They combined for a total of 17 varsity seasons and no championships. This is UAH's 27th season, and the team has won two national championships at the now defunct Division II level. Wayne State and Findlay, with very little history, went away with minimal fuss. Portera had his email inbox deluged with hundreds upon hundreds of emails from students, alumni, and fans from around the college hockey world.

UAH will be the first program with a national championship to relinquish varsity status.

Fifth, and most outrageous of all, Mack Portera tries to use the excuse that the team's lack of Alabamans on the roster is a reason to scuttle the team's varsity status - a clear grasp at straws. Someone had better alert RIT - not a single New Yorker on that team. No one from Rhode Island plays for Brown. No Nebraskans at Nebraska-Omaha. Army, Colorado College, North Dakota, Notre Dame, Princeton, Quinnipiac, Vermont and Yale have a paltry one player each from their respective home states.

It's this last claim that pushes Portera into Hull status. Don't most schools proudly point out how many different states are represented in their student body? Aren't most schools proud of their international contingent? UAH is a darn fine engineering school - fine enough that the aristocratic qualifier "for a state school" can be easily skipped - shouldn't it also be a source of pride that people from outside the state are attracted by athletics as well as academics?

Club hockey certainly isn't going to grow the sport in North Alabama either, as he tries to claim.

As Adam Wodon said so eloquently on the twitters on Monday, Hull and Portera stand alone.

Roger Hull, you will remember, earned himself undying infamy when he directed that Union become the only institution sharing a Division III conference with a D-III school offering scholarships in their D-I sport (in this case, three of them) to vote against allowing those schools to continue offering those scholarships. He then continued to carry on, unconsciously explaining his school's decades of dismal records by saying "...when they got to 40 percent [winning percentage], I was proud, and when they reached nearly 50 percent a few years ago, I was tremendously proud of them."

Can there be any wonder why the Dutchmen have been so successful since his departure? Incidentally, Hull is now running for Schenectady mayor - and perhaps the city's residents should make themselves aware of his benchmarks for success.

Fortunately for Union, they were able to at least survive Hull's idiocy. Huntsville doesn't have that kind of luxury with the fool they ended up with - on an interim basis, no less - and college hockey is a poorer place today because of it.

Late in their program's history, after the axe had fallen, Boston University football started wearing tape over their BU logos and plain white jerseys, calling themselves "University X." Findlay started calling themselves merely "the Oilers." For all the support the Chargers have received from their school, perhaps something similar is in order.

More worthwhile UAH commentaries:

• Geof F. Morris, Save UAH Hockey: Goodbye
• Joe Yerdon, NBC Sports: So long UAH hockey, now let's point some fingers
• Greg Wyshynski, Yahoo! Sports: What killed NCAA Div. I hockey at Alabama-Huntsville?
• Chris Peters, The United States of Hockey: Death of a program: Alabama-Huntsville gets plug pulled
• Jackson Morgus, Obstructed View Sports: Congratulations, UAH
• Kyle Rossi, Thank You Terry: Lonesome Day
• Chris Dilks, Western College Hockey Blog: Who is to blame for Huntsville's demise?
• Ken Schott, Schenectady Daily Gazette: Farewell to Alabama-Huntsville hockey
• Mark McCarter, Huntsville Times: Portera's decision on UAH hockey program ends unique aspect to university, community
• Mark McCarter, Huntsville Times: Sad day to see UAH hockey program eliminated
• Sandy Gholston, Ferris State: Alabama-Huntsville program fades to black
• Steve Fetch, The College Hockey Blog: Goodbye, Huntsville
• Matt Dresens, BU Hockey Blog: A bad day for college hockey

Tsunami Watch: The Flood Recedes

This is our final edition of Tsunami Watch. Why? Because the radical changes in the college hockey world caused by the advent of varsity hockey at Penn State are over.

But, you say, the most exciting part of all could be just around the corner for RPI! Perhaps. But it will be a secondary reaction if it happens.

Here is where we currently stand for 2013-14.

* There will essentially be one new conference: the Big Ten. Thus, at the end of the day, we're back to six conferences, where we were when the CHA was still around.

* The CCHA membership will disperse into four of those six conferences - Notre Dame to Hockey East, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State to the Big Ten, Miami and Western Michigan to the NCHC, and the balance to the WCHA.

* The WCHA, while it will continue to exist, will look radically different, with three less teams than they currently stand and, really, no programs that would be considered power programs. We could be talking about a WCHA that moves to the level of the ECAC.

* The only thing left to shake out will be autobids, which may not be back to six until 2015-16 under the rules. NCAA regulations say six teams of any league must have been playing together for two full seasons before they can have the autobid conferred upon them. That would seem to leave out the Big Ten off the bat since the rule applies to specific sports, but it could also leave the NCHC and the WCHA high and dry.

The NCHC might have the excuse that six of their teams have been playing together in the WCHA. The new-look WCHA, however, has only 4 teams that have played together in the previous incarnation of the league, and only 5 that played together in the CCHA.

That leaves us with four scenarios.

1) The WCHA, as the previously existing league, gets an autobid, while the NCHC has to wait two years.

2) The NCHC, as the league with six previously existing league members, gets an autobid, while the WCHA has to do without for a couple of seasons.

3) Both leagues get an autobid.

4) Neither league gets an autobid.

And, of course, the Big Ten could somehow manage to get a waiver for a supposedly unwaiverable rule.

Anyway, here's what the college hockey landscape looks like after the tsunami. The only potential secondary changes are a 12th team for Hockey East and, if that team comes from the ECAC, a move by an Atlantic Hockey team into the ECAC. Any further discussions by the discontented programs of Atlantic Hockey at a new conference would be on its own track.

Big Ten

Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

NCHC

Colorado College, Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota, St. Cloud State and Western Michigan.

WCHA

Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Ferris State, Lake Superior State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State and Northern Michigan.

Hockey East

Boston College, Boston University, Maine, Merrimack, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Providence, UMass, UMass-Lowell and Vermont.

ECAC & Atlantic Hockey

Unchanged

Independents

Alabama-Huntsville

Recently discussed potential new programs

Buffalo and MSU-Moorhead

Tsunami Watch: Night of the Living CCHA

It's alive!

Well, not quite yet. But it does sound like reports of the CCHA's demise may have been exaggerated.

Last week, we mentioned that Bowling Green appeared to be out of options when it came to their final destination, with a rapidly expiring WCHA offer sitting on the table and not much else.

Now, via the Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune, comes news that instead of trudging off to the WCHA, the Falcons may instead channel their inner North Dakota, and take the lead on the formation of a new league... or at the very least, rebuild the CCHA around themselves.

In yesterday's paper, the Sentinel-Tribune stated that Bowling Green was in talks with those dissatisfied Atlantic Hockey programs we've already mentioned - Canisius, Mercyhurst, Niagara, and Robert Morris - on joining together. Those schools had previously been in discussions with the CCHA as a whole before the majority of the remaining members bolted for the WCHA (and WMU for the NCHC). But that only makes for five programs - one less than needed for an automatic bid.

Enter Bucky Gleason's dream team.

You may remember our artful dismantling of The Buffalo News reporter Bucky Gleason in May 2010 following an over-exuberant reworking of college hockey in his apparently uneducated image. We stand by every word of that today, but you'll note that we never pooh-poohed the idea of the University of Buffalo one day having a team, just that it wouldn't necessarily be as easy as Gleason made it sound - not to mention, coming equipped with a silly arrangement by which Clarkson and St. Lawrence would, for some reason, join up with the Bulls.

At any rate, it does sound like UB is at the very least interested enough to be a party to discussions with Bowling Green and the AHA insurrectionists. However, the university told WGRZ-TV that "there are several things that would need to occur both fiscally and within conference alignments for this to work for UB at this time."

Additionally, when it comes to small conferences, this new Zombie CCHA wouldn't necessarily be on the world's greatest footing. They'd probably want at least one, if not two more programs.

So where do we now stand with this news?

Bowling Green: To be quite frank, Bowling Green didn't seem like the type of program that would be taking a lead on forming what in essence would be a brand new league even if it may end up being a new-look CCHA - which is why we're calling it the "Zombie CCHA" for the time being. Sure they've got a national title in their history, but the program has been in rough shape for some time, to include a period of time a few years back in which the program seemed to be in danger of folding (which serendipitously led to Nick Bailen's arrival in Troy). Together with ongoing renovations to BGSU Ice Arena, this may be part of a WMU-like rebound for the program. At any rate, the Falcons have until Oct. 7 to let the WCHA what they want to do for the 2013-14 campaign, so we'll probably know more soon about whether this Zombie CCHA is a real thing.

Canisius: Noteworthy in the Sentinel-Tribune story is the little tidbit - alluded to in Gleason's comedy bit - that Canisius may be working out a deal with none other than Terry Pegula, the man who donated the seed money to get Penn State's program off the ground. Pegula, who also owns the Buffalo Sabres, would apparently be seeking to use to use the facility as a practice rink for the Sabres as well, which would only mean good things for the Griffins and their program, especially if they can be part of a conference like the CCHA that will allow them to offer a full slate of scholarships. This could be a program on the rise.

Mercyhurst, Niagara, and Robert Morris: Nothing really new to report here other than that the rest of the teams who had already been in contact with the CCHA are still apparently looking to leave Atlantic Hockey if they can.

Buffalo: Something about UB's statement has me a little skeptical that they're actually going to pull this off, especially since BGSU has a timetable of their own that they need to adhere to that expires in a couple of weeks. Still, if the money is there - reputed to be coming via Buffalo billionaire Jeremy Jacobs, owner of the Boston Bruins, who's been generous to the school before - this is certainly something that is possible. About the only thing Gleason had going for him in that article was that he was right about the potential for college hockey growth in the Buffalo area, and if the Bulls can anchor the Zombie CCHA along with Niagara and Canisius, it would even have its own hub city. UB is trying to significantly transform itself into the undisputed top school in the SUNY system - a move like this wouldn't hurt that at all.

RIT: Notably, the other school that yearns for more than Atlantic Hockey still isn't a part of the discussion. This could well be a matter of the Tigers waiting to see if something becomes available in the ECAC, as it has been mentioned that RIT would love to earn a place in with the Ivies and some of their peer schools. That doesn't look likely unless a current team leaves, which, as we've said, is only probably going to happen if Notre Dame goes to Hockey East. RIT's probably waiting for the dominoes to fall. A Notre Dame move to the NCHC could trigger some interest in the Zombie CCHA, if it exists by then, from the Tigers.

Air Force: It hasn't been reasonably confirmed that the Falcons are eager to leave Atlantic Hockey yet (there have only been a few Twitter rumors here or there), but in the same vein, they could be a candidate for a Zombie CCHA or even the WCHA, especially if BGSU ultimately turns down the WCHA's invite (leaving them with just eight teams). The Academy already bailed on the CHA when it appeared that conference was ready to go down the drain, if several teams leave Atlantic Hockey their survival instincts may just kick in once again.

Atlantic Hockey: That leads into the obvious next step... if these wheels eventually get set in motion, it could be relatively disastrous for the AHA moving forward - the only teams not presently linked to a potential move from the conference are American International, Army, Bentley, UConn, Holy Cross, and Sacred Heart. The league's already lacking in fire power, this league would not only be relegated to the bare minimum of six teams, it would be very dependent on the seeming "it's just there" nature of the AIC program (as we discussed in AIC's Know Your Enemy) for survival. Something to consider.

Alabama-Huntsville: These new developments have been nothing but positive for the Chargers, who now could find themselves with as many as three decent options for conference membership if all goes well. We talked about the WCHA as a potential landing spot, but the Zombie CCHA or a vastly depleted Atlantic Hockey would probably be even better candidates for the Chargers. Right now, of course, their biggest hurdle is a temporary president who seems ready to throw the team away before they get the opportunity to try for a permanent home.

Notre Dame: Completely unrelated to the Zombie CCHA is the seemingly never-ending question of where the Fighting Irish are going to land. The Eagle Tribune's Mike McMahon said yesterday that independence is pretty much now off the table and the NCHC or Hockey East choice is all that remains - and at the very least, Hockey East doesn't seem to think that the Irish are leaning as far toward the NCHC as they originally were.

Hockey East: Today was Hockey East Media Day, which was abuzz with the possibility of Notre Dame joining the conference. McMahon got a chance to speak to Hockey East commissioner Joe Bertagna, indicating that the league would probably seek a 12th team if Notre Dame comes into the conference - and he also tweeted that the discussions at Media Day had RPI as the top potential choice with UConn as a longshot (there are Title IX issues at play in Storrs) and a little less discussion on Quinnipiac.

RPI: So... we wait. And if Notre Dame declares their undying love for Hockey East... hold onto your helmet.

Tsunami Watch: Western Redux

Now that everything we ever knew about college hockey is basically wrong, it's time to re-examine the moving parts out west again, since everything we discussed in previous editions of Tsunami Watch with regards to those teams has changed somewhat.

By the way, we've been talking like this is all going down right away... 2013 is when the actual shifting will all take place. So we've at least got two more seasons of relative calm as it pertains to the actual product on the ice.

Big Ten: The Big Ten is still pretty much hunky dory. There's not much out there that is going to change, given the league's status not just as an all-sports conference, but as one of the BCS conferences. It's worth mentioning, I suppose, that because of the Big Ten's status as a new hockey conference, the teams within will have to forego an automatic bid to the national tournament in 2014 and 2015 due to the NCAA's requirement that new conferences wait for two years before receiving an autobid.

NCHC: The six teams that currently make up the NCHC are all set - North Dakota, Denver, Colorado College, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, and Miami. Chances are pretty solid that they'd like to bring in at least one or two more teams, and Notre Dame is number one on that list, no question. More on them (and the other candidates) later. Like the Big Ten, the NCHC will have to forego an autobid until 2016, though it would be beyond shocking if the league's members didn't earn an at-large or two at minimum.

WCHA: The five remaining schools - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota State, and St. Cloud State, appear to be rallying around the WCHA flag. There's no doubt that this league will be signifcantly weaker than the one we have known, and the MnSCU institutions (Bemidji, Mankato, and St. Cloud) are poised to take a leading role in the future of the conference.

Northern Michigan: They're on their way back to the WCHA, which they played in from 1984 through 1997. This reunites the Wildcats with their rivals from Michigan Tech, and it puts the WCHA back on somewhat more secure footing as NMU becomes the sixth team. If nothing else, the WCHA will continue to have their automatic bid come 2013 - the question now is whether the league can stay strong enough to be able to produce an at-large bid as well.

Notre Dame: We started out with Notre Dame as the pivot, but the NCHC clearly wasn't willing to wait to see what the Irish would do and took the second step themselves. Now we've got a third step with NMU moving to the WCHA and we could see other teams reacting to the Big Ten/NCHC combination, but no future step will be as big as where Notre Dame ends up. There are really only two options here - either the NCHC or Hockey East. The WCHA is no longer a viable option following the NCHC split since it doesn't offer the Irish anything they wouldn't get out of staying in the CCHA, which is now even less of an option as teams continue to bail. Word has it that the hockey staff prefers the NCHC, while the administration - i.e. the ones who will more than likely be making the final decision - are said to prefer Hockey East. What remains to be seen is whether the hockey people can influence the administration enough to get what they'd like.

We've already discussed the ins and outs of Notre Dame to Hockey East, what about the NCHC? From the administration's perspective, the NCHC is, like the CCHA following the Big Ten split, full of programs that may be hockey powers, but aren't among giants in other sports. The hockey people are certainly drawn to the regional hockey power aspect of the NCHC.

Western Michigan: Of the programs that make up "the rest," WMU actually seems to have the most options on the table. It's reported that they have a standing offer to join the NCHC. They could instead choose to follow NMU to the WCHA. They could hang with some of their CCHA conference mates and try to form the nucleus of a new CCHA. There are even rumors out there that WMU might be welcome in Hockey East if Notre Dame chooses that route, given the proximity of Kalamazoo to South Bend.

The last one is kind of a longshot - there's not much need for a team right near Notre Dame unless Hockey East decides to move to an ECAC-esque travel partner system, which doesn't make a great deal of sense. Right now, the most likely move appears to be a move into the NCHC to follow their Mid-American Conference brethren from Miami. The NCHC isn't doling out invitations on the cheap, and once WMU settles in with a new coach, they could well become the seventh team in the NCHC, though life would certainly not be easy for them there - they'd be a minnow among giants, at least at first.

Alaska: The Nanooks are in a tight spot. We've touched on why it's a bad idea for both Alaska schools to be in the same conference, and yet, when it comes to their survival, it might just end up happening anyway. Rumor has it that Alaska will apply for WCHA membership, which would put them with their rivals from Anchorage in what would then be an eight-team conference. That would almost certainly necessitate yearly trips to Alaska for the entire WCHA and require both UAF and UAA to get creative with non-conference games, but with the CCHA's existence in question, the Nanooks (and the Seawolves, who do depend on UAF for some games) probably feel that it's in their best interest to get themselves into an existing league.

Bowling Green: The Falcons, like their MAC colleagues from Western Michigan, also have options, but theirs are a little hazier. They could try for the WCHA, but they're a little far away from the rest of the conference and they'd be the only Division I program unless WMU decides on that path. They could stick around in the CCHA, especially if WMU chooses that path. NCHC or Hockey East bids would both be longshots.

Lake Superior State and Ferris State: These schools are absolutely stuck in limbo until something else happens. Neither are appealing to the WCHA or the NCHC due to the size of the schools and their geographic locations - which means they could well be dependent on the eventual survival of the CCHA in order to have a conference in 2013. They'll need to be proactive in recruiting new members, because it's going to require more than a few, and they're almost certainly going to come from Atlantic Hockey and the independent ranks (of which, there is only one, who we're getting to). That is a very difficult position to be in. They could forseeably try for WCHA membership, but remember, that conference is now completely comprised of smaller schools with smaller budgets and still involves a school from Alaska, if not two. The footprint can't grow by much more.

Niagara, Robert Morris, Mercyhurst, and Canisius: Recent reports have these four programs, known to be interested in moving up in the world, in discussions with the CCHA about joining that conference. The biggest problem right now? It's hard to know exactly what teams are concerned with the makeup of the CCHA in 2013. It seems that there's at most four - LSSU, Ferris, and maybe BGSU and/or WMU. That's a tough place to start from. One thing that is generally agreed upon here is that these four schools are almost certainly going to want to come into an Alaska-free CCHA. The inclusion of these four institutions would move the CCHA's footprint east, but it would guarantee the conference a minimum of six programs, even if four of them were new to the conference.

Air Force: If the above four teams leave Atlantic Hockey, it puts some additional pressure on Air Force to consider the new-look WCHA since it would leave AHA basically with Air Force, RIT, Holy Cross, and an assortment of low-budget or low-attention programs. The difficulty now, though, is that a WCHA comprised entirely of Minnesota, Alaska, and Upper Peninsula schools may not be terribly keen on bringing in a Colorado school, especially when both Alaska schools are involved.

Alabama-Huntsville: If the Big Ten was the best thing that could happen for UAH given the log-jam created by four full conferences and an 11-team CCHA unwilling to bring the Chargers on, the formation of the NCHC is probably one of the worst. It puts the power teams of the west, the ones with the most money and therefore most willing to bring in a team that requires more travel than the average program, into elite segments that UAH cannot hope to break into. That leaves the Chargers with two options - a CCHA largely comprised of teams that did not support their inclusion in the past, or an Atlantic Hockey that has lost some of its current programs. As with the Atlantic Hockey teams looking at the CCHA, UAH would almost certainly require Alaska to move out of the conference before they would be considered, but for the opposite reason: the existing schools of the CCHA would not be willing to deal with both UAH and UAF in the same conference, but might be more willing to stomach the Chargers without also having the Nanooks around.

MSU-Moorhead: WHO? Oh, you don't know the Dragons? That's probably because they don't have a varsity program. And yes, I said I wasn't going to engage in rampant speculation over schools without programs, but Moorhead has gone beyond speculation, announcing a fundraising drive last week for what they hope will be a new program in the near future. As a MnSCU school - the "MSU" stands for Minnesota State University - the Dragons would fit perfectly into the WCHA, given its new outlook. Let's not count them in quite yet, but they're hoping to be able to make an announcement of a new program in the coming months, so they're worth keeping an eye on.

So that's about where we stand right now. Waiting to see who the WCHA's new suitors are, what Notre Dame is going to do, and who WMU (and Northeastern, by the by) chooses as their new coach. Join us next time for another exciting edition of "As the Tsunami Turns."

Tsunami Watch: CCHA

In the words of Bob Dylan, "the times, they are a-changin'" and nowhere are the times changing more than in the Central Collegiate Hockey Association.

A minor conference when it was created in the 1970s, the CCHA got a huge shot in the arm when Michigan and Michigan State joined the conference from the WCHA in 1981 and ever since, the league has been one of the major players on the national scene. But those schools, along with Ohio State, will be departing for the new Big Ten conference, and a league currently sitting at 11 programs will be down to eight, with two powerful programs that will almost certainly be looking for something more firm (and more prestigious) and six less powerful programs who face a difficult future.

It wasn't long ago that some were talking about the CCHA possibly being the first conference to stretch from coast to coast (from Alaska to New York), and that may yet be in the conference's future, but minus the Big Ten schools, there's an unsure future not only for many of the CCHA's D-II programs, but also for the conference itself.

Notre Dame: At the end of the day, the Fighting Irish are really the program most likely to be the one making the next move, and they are easily the program with the most options. Why? Because they're Notre Dame - the school with enough moxie when it comes to college athletics (specifically, college football) to command their own national television contract. As Adam Wodon has said, they're probably already looking around and realizing that without the Big 10 schools, they're in a conference with nothing but Mid-American Conference and D-II schools. That's not how the Fighting Irish roll.

If Notre Dame comes calling, what established conference in their right minds would turn them down? The two most likely destinations are the WCHA (where the Irish resided in the 1970s) and Hockey East (where an institutional rival in Boston College resides, not to mention that the league isn't totally geographically similar to the Big East's core). The WCHA is home of some large buildings, but Notre Dame's new digs will be big enough to fit in.

Expect the Fighting Irish to be the next team to make a decision on their future, probably within the next year. Will they look east? Will they look west? Or will they take a leading role in trying to attract new teams (and potentially, new programs) to the CCHA? The decision they make will likely set the rest of the carousel in motion.

Miami: Perhaps the single CCHA program with the most questions. They're quickly becoming one of the best programs in college hockey - like Notre Dame, missing only the national championship - but the uncertainty surrounding the CCHA could have lasting consequences on the Redhawks' immediate future. Consider Miami's position. They are, as soon as the Big Ten schools leave, one of two powers in a significantly weakened conference and, as we just mentioned, Notre Dame almost certainly isn't long for that weakened conference. What, then, is the solution?

The WCHA is unlikely to be interested in Miami for a couple of reasons. Their arena, while new (and, might I say, awesome), would be very small by their standards. It's also significantly outside of the league's footprint and, especially by comparison to Notre Dame, Miami doesn't bring with it much gravitas other than through their recently lofty position as a college hockey power.

Hockey East also probably wouldn't be terribly interested in Miami, even as a package with Notre Dame, given its status as a regional (yet powerful) conference. They might be willing to branch out for the Irish, but probably not so much for the Redhawks.

Miami's best route, therefore, is probably in bolstering the CCHA through adding additional programs - and yet, no matter what schools possibly get added, the Redhawks are still in the precarious position of being head and shoulders above the rest of the league. That might bode well for making the national tournament every year, but if the CCHA is significantly weakened, it might make for a tougher route to their goal of a national championship.

Bowling Green and Western Michigan: The other MAC schools, each with very different hockey histories but similar recent results. The Falcons won a national championship in 1984, but have had a rocky recent past, including a threat a few years back to have their program folded due to difficult economic times. The Broncos, meanwhile, have floundered for many years but are coming off a remarkable comeback season last year under their new coach despite the school's long-term commitment to the program slightly in question.

These are schools that, like Miami, are among in the top level Division I (as defined by the D-I split in college football), but unlike Miami are unattractive to other high end conferences - neither has a prayer of being invited to a currently existing league. They will certainly miss the effect that regular visits from Michigan and Michigan State have had on home turnout, and if the CCHA doesn't grow, they may find the quality (and stability) of their programs diminishing rapidly as time goes by, further imperiling the league and their own existence.

Ferris State, Lake Superior State and Northern Michigan: The CCHA's Division II schools in the Midwest. The latter two are also former national champions, with the Lakers enjoying a dynasty during the late 1980s and early 1990s. These programs have not been in trouble as BGSU and WMU have been, but they will be taking a big hit with the Big Ten schools leaving the conference. They are not currently in danger, but the longer the CCHA exists in a weakened state, the more their future in Division I could be in jeopardy. At the very least, their ability to field competitive teams could be in jeopardy.

NMU is a former WCHA program and they were rumored to be in the mix to jump back to the WCHA during its last expansion, a slot that eventually went to Nebraska-Omaha. They could try to spring back (maybe even with Notre Dame), but it's entirely possible that the WCHA ship has sailed. Ferris and LSSU have fewer reasonable options.

Alaska: The CCHA's lonely outpost in the Last Frontier. The Nanooks have had the appearance of being a serious outlier in the Great Lakes-centric CCHA since they joined the conference in 1995, but it has been a necessary matter for their program to be able to have a secure place in the college hockey world. It is difficult at best to schedule an independent schedule, and even more difficult to entice teams to come to Alaska, even with the schedule exemption that teams who do so receive (teams who travel to the 49th state don't have to count those games toward their schedule limit). So Alaska will also be looking to keep the CCHA soluble.

One thing that almost surely will not happen is a combination of the two Alaska schools into the same conference, whether that's the Nanooks moving the WCHA as has been suggested or Alaska-Anchorage moving to the CCHA (where it has been argued they could be more competitive). Both schools cherish the ability to play each other on a yearly basis to account for some of their non-conference games (taking up the remainder with pre-season tournaments). If they were forced to play each other within a conference schedule, it would make filling their schedule all the more difficult, perhaps requiring them to travel to the Lower 48 for some of their non-conference games, which neither team currently does.

Expansion?

The CCHA's path to survival as a conference almost certainly rests in adding new programs, since we've seen how tenuous survival can be with eight or fewer teams. Fortunately, there are a number of viable options out there, including the possibility of adding new programs (which again, we won't speculate on specific schools here).

Atlantic Hockey: We'll touch more on this when we get to discussing the growing divisions in college hockey's lone minor (but improving) conference, but there are a number of teams in Atlantic Hockey that would likely love to join the CCHA, even in a weakened condition, than stay in the cost-contained AHA. First and foremost, there's Niagara and Robert Morris, both dealing with scholarship restrictions they'd prefer not to have. There's also RIT, which has been dominant in AHA and is clearly yearning for a bigger challenge, though they'd prefer the ECAC. Mercyhurst wouldn't be too far away and has been trying to improve their position. The bottom line is, there are a number of opportunities for AHA teams, especially western AHA teams, who might be interested in improving their station through the CCHA if they're up for the challenge of competing with a full slate of scholarships.

Alabama-Huntsville: Let's not forget the lone current independent in hockey's southern outpost. The shuffling that the Big Ten's arrival represents is welcome news in Huntsville not because it opens an obvious spot for the Chargers, but because it breaks the status quo, which is what has left them on the outside looking in. Could there be a spot for them in the CCHA? Certainly. Is it a sure thing? Far from it. By all reports, the schools that were warm to the idea of the Chargers joining the conference the last time they looked to join were, by and large, the bigger schools, and most of them are leaving. UAH would help stabilize the league on numbers alone, but it would also increase travel costs for a league that is not going to have as much money to play with once the heavy hitters hit the road.

Michigan Tech: Here's an interesting possibility that's probably more rampant speculation than anything, but... what about Tech? They bolted the WCHA for three years in the early 1980s for the CCHA and their local rivals from NMU currently play there (with non-conference games between the schools continuing on a yearly basis). Tech is starting anew with a new coach next year and haven't finished in the top half of the WCHA since 1993 - since then, they've finished last nine times, including each of the last three years. Might the program be better suited to grow in what will be a weaker league, one in which they would lend a bit more gravitas to in the process? It's absolutely nothing but speculation since Tech seems to be happy in the WCHA (and the reverse is probably true, since they're the trustees of the MacNaughton Cup, the league's regular season championship trophy), but... maybe something to think about as a possibility.